Member Info for JTS13

No problem @Flocktonflyer. Good luck with getting the timing right

I think you'll know @FlocktonFlyer that this is a difficult question to ask on a board.

With regards to your question, it's important to look at both perspectives. You mentioned shorters recently gaining positions. It should also be noticed that last week we had 2 shorters backing out of their declared positions. The general theory is that last weeks shorters were simply opportunists taking advantage of ROWE's devestment. This saw a prolonged sell off in the region of 40m shares. Most of us believe that the worst is over. Positives are:
- II sell off appears almost complete (if not already)
- TU will outline forward plan in more detail, so expectations are for a positive one
- Most recent TU saw 30% rise (but was shorted into). Many of us hoping for similar or better now that the shorters and II seller are mostly out
- A fair probability of a short squeeze around time of the update
- Fairly recent CEO purchase at over 20p indicates where company believe good value to be at
- Average broker rating of around 25p
- Bond rating is still stable and trading at full value, so no significant / ST worries about the debt

Put simply, shorters coming in and declaring after a SP has dropped over 90% smells of desperation. Equally though, most of us here thought the same coming in at around 20p, so we could all be wrong. Personally, I've got a decent sized holding in here and do have another few g's sitting on the sidelines, but won't add more until see the start of a correction. Made the mistake last time and bought most at 12p+... Either way, boards are usually bias in favour of a stock, so always best DYOR.

Re: RNS, gotta say i'm surprised it's not dropped on this RNS... given that wres usually does on news.
Moreso on this one tho as cash in bank including credit = 1.8mill. Given that we had the equity raising, warrant doubling, early access to grant money and delay on loan interest repayments, this appears to be multiple millions over budget. Far from the repetitively mentioned on budget statements provided.

@GW, hoping you get your money back soon. I'm pending my 4mill back at early October also so knkw the feeling. Force selling at .37p was horrible.

Wres will come good once tungsten prices return. But am not confident of any serious short time rise

Mind u, not fully complaining as pending buy back of most my shares. Only have a couple mill left in here until next month

Quite different ball games really. Primary reason for PMO being shorted is cause likelihood of significantly increasingly debt further in order to develop Sea Lion. PDL does not have this problem.
Equally, PMO has excellent SP potential via sell-off of Zama, not to mention Tolmount coming online next year which will bring significant cashflows along with it. PDL has neither indicated that it will sell off a major asset, nor got a new mine coming onstream in near future.
Am in both. Personally see PDL as being a few years down the line of where PMO was a while back. Rockety ride ahead for both, but unless there is significant downtrend in external markets, just maintaining f2f forecasts will generate significant returns over next couple of years for holders of either. Equally, as others have mentioned on here, PDL's bond value is still near 100%, so overall indicating a healthy business that has been exited by a few who're backing out of diamond space (fair, considering broader market volatility) and then subsequently shorted out by false accusations. Just a matter of patiently holding out on this one I think. I likely will add more, but happy to add once trends have started moving north. It may mean buying in 20% higher or whatever, but avoids buying more on these knife edges. Close over 10.5 or an SP rise to 10.8 will be clear indicator to me that worst is over

Cheers safefy. Indeed, worst time to sell. Didn't flinch during the low 20's cause believed this would come good, so the current 30's doesn't give too much concern over long term. But yeh, sometimes we can't choose when the selling needs to happen.
Can't get the cash back until 2nd week of October earliest. Let's see what happens between now and then, but doubt SP will be around where it is now

Well, I admit to just selling off another 4.125mill in 2 tranches... Wasn't meant to have been such a large number, but needed 16k for a few weeks cashflow for a tax gov related bill. Put it off for as long as i could, but sp dropped 30% during the waiting time...Dang, shoulda sold earlier and could've bought back in nicely
Remaining balance is still in here, but this sale probs brings my average up to over a penny now

Thanks for posting @Joehigashi. Unfortunately though, I don't think that this will have any influence on shorter activity at PDL as the investigation into Berenberg is in an unrelated area.
PDL will still be a waiting game until the current selling off has stopped. As commented by other posters, we are near bottom though (or at least near a level where shorters don't want to maintain significant selling pressure), so just a matter of time

@Bob, made me laugh that! Think you meant that you'd like to think yourself in the middle of the spectrum, but read it first time as you being in the middle (i.e. the core, a pillar, the leader, the central chum, the big cheese etc) of the idiots

Re: strong balance sheet & liquidity, likely to be a balance between:

(A) Additional flexibility for spend on Regua / other assets without needing to tap into equity markets,

(B) Provide additional coverage against any continued downward trend of APT which could otherwise impact earnings & cashflows

(C) Help attract II's who are increasingly sensitive towards financial integrity/strength of companies within todays' markets. This needs to be put in perspective of increasing probability of a recession within 18 months, and also noting that other tungsten mines have got significant levels of debt which nobody seems to be caring around. e.g. China's Xiamen Tungsten is looking to invest $750m for 2/3 stake in Upper Kayrakty mine for 2023 start. Or IFG $300m investment into Uzbekistan mine last year. Ironically, WRES debt is so low that there may be several II's out there that don't believe the numbers given the wlfe fiasco

Morning @Jaf, If I remember rightly, the discussion at the time was that the interest and warrants were fairly steep, but relatively standard given the development phase of project and risk. The hope was that Blackrock name would be used to attract more II investment, but that has not been realised... Consequently, fair to say that everybody is right. High cost, but a necessary one.
Assuming WRES get 6-12 month of production figures in there (or at last an interim report with half year financials) WRES should be able to improve rates on the loan.

Re: equity raise. I don't see this in the report. It's also worth bearing in mind that the Shard review takes on quite a bearish note. They assume commercial production from Q1 2020 and book zero revenues in for 2019. Given than we're already booking revenues (in a somewhat small capacity atm) and have the grant money due end of year, the cash situation in Shards report is almost guaranteed to be beaten.
It does feel that LP is coming online around 6 months behind our initial expectations, knowing off a good $10-15m in revenues from this year. Which is def' significant. However, so long as Regua expenses are pushed back until LP is profitable and there is no more splashing out on this gold resource, we should be good.

Confirmed that 5% applies for US IIs.

What we dont know tho is why they are selling out. E.g. larger move against diamond market downtrend? In which case sell off will likely continue for a while. OR Negative sentiment towards PDL post results n Berenberg review? In which case, potentially the RNS could limit the sell off

We'll likely not know for sure and only time will tell.

Certainly Sep will have some key newsflow. Additionally, a nice RNS following sale of this latest diamond find with explicit statement that proceeds will be used to repay debt at faster than forecasted levels would be welcome

@Oldy, currently on travels so lacking v specific references. However, my meaning was that all investor ppts for past few years have shown same slide on commissioning. There has been no change on this note in terms of the reality. The change has been in terms of our (PIs) understanding. Whereas the info has always been available, we've been thrown MMs interviews where he constantly quotes deadlines for plant completion. This has resulted in 2 key misunderstandings. (A) That there are 3 key plants, not 1, and (B) that plant completion is excluding commissioning time

Adding on to the is the reference to quarters by the end month. E.g. Q4 being Dec Quarter.

Apply these 3 misunderstandings together and the unravelled message is: final plant completion (concentrator) imminent, + 3 months commissioning and ramp up, = full production from early Nov (i.e same as the Dec quarter), and ultimately being Dec month as first full month of full production

Am i frustrated at wres performance? Yes! Do i think comms have been poor? Yes. Do i think that PIs have been screwed this past year by placings n warrant malarky? Yes... However, once interpreted, the message of full production from Dec onwards has been consistent for several months now

@TT: Wouldnt go as far as saying that MM is the problem. If wasnt for him, blackrock would never of happened n wres would be in much worse position. Obv the comms is poor (per my response to Oldskool above) but shareholder comms alone is not what CEO performance should be based on

Quick scan through recent posts, and just a few comments:

@Oldy: 3 month commissioning is "illustrated" in all investor ppts. I dont ave latest on my phone, but p.16 of May 18 ppt shows clearly that each piece of major plant equipment has indicated commissioning time of 3 months... now, i've interpreted that as including ramp up also. But am now just going with Dec for full prod targets per MM interviews.

RE: Gold RNS. I'm fearing the worst. Latest investor ppt showed 250k. If we've waited over a year for that, then that's shocking! 1 mill, yes. 400k, i'm not enthusiastic. 250k (given the wait) deserves to have near zero impact on share price IMO as it offers nothing other than more expenses

@AA, cheers for the balanaced ref' ;)

Otherwise, emotions on here are v high. Comments on this BB are multiples of share transactions! That's gotta be the first. But only shows the frustration. Hard to think that MM cant be aware... his last RNS was better worded. Still a nothing RNS, but at least acknowledged frustrations. Hopefully next one will be same conscientiousness, but with something to actually write about

Pretty significant gap between 13-15p... Guess question is at what point the new trading range be set. Obv would be nice to return to 15p pronto, yet sure shorters will have tricks up their sleaves to find ways of getting out without being destroyed in a gap-up. So will be satisfied with 13p in near term, then "attack on the gap" following a broker review from either one of our 4 brokers or GS

Some positive movements taking place on chart this morning. RSI decline reversed by 6pts (still oversold, but a significant change). Short-term MACD at 3.8.3 on day chart, along with standard via 1hr+4hr charts all changed direction to face positive.

See 11.65 being the hurdle to break to really indicate a reversal. We'll likely retrace a bit during the day, but this week should see a bit of a rebound. My pot here is a small fraction of what it was a week ago, but would be nice to make a few grand back from those losses!

@Mogwhy, Oh. I thought you were using $110 opex cause that'd be taking into account the $102 (per investor ppt) number and then adding in a 5% safety buffer. This would make sense to me. Personally, I discount the $94 figure as meaningless until either (i) we reach year 4 of production and this figure becomes achievable, or (ii) APT prices start rising again resulting in an improved market sentiment towards tungsten producing stocks.

With regards to "rewards diminishing". It's self evident that a poor short-term market sentiment due to concerns about Fanya overhang and US/China trade war, combined with unconfirmed numbers is going to result in minimal rewards in the short-term. The trade war is a bigger impediment as whilst Fanya could release 30% of global annual supply & flood market, the trade war has resulted in huge drop in tooling needs which equates for 30% of tungsten use. There will be quite a lag before investment returns as nobody trusts Trump any more.

Personally, I think 50% SP increase by end of next year is still realistic. The combination of current market sentiment + skepticism towards MM for delays + forward capex for T3.5 + natural teething problems during ramp up + blackrock and double bag warrants = a cap to any rise above 0.6p (IMO).

Is 50% good for an 18 month investment. Yes! But for some of us LTHs, is 50% good for our 5+ year waits (of which 0.6 won't even let some of break even), then the answer may not be quite as enthusiastic. Profit is profit. But wres is not sounding as exciting as it used to

Role on October and our first quarter production update. This is most important near-term milestone for setting forward trajectory. Fear other news (regua dev, gold, commissioning etc) will just be sold into by frustrated PIs wanting out

Perhaps there may be ongoing confusion for some of the newer followers on here about the pricing which will be achieved by WRES. Needs to be remembered that APT = market, and WRES achieve a percentage of this per MTU (stated at 80% in the FID, page 10.
The $20m EBIDTA numbers quotes on here about a week ago (coming from June PPT) are slightly misleading as they are a rounding up of 3 year average. This means that they also take into account 1 year of T3.5 production & are forecasted at higher pricing than currently available (but not significantly for the 1st year, so all still probable). The problem with taking this $20m number is that it will probs have a 24 month delay factor from today before it bears any impact on SP.
Personally, I'm more alongside Mogwhy's recent postings Re: OPEX in region of $110 (and even much higher for this year) and EBITDA from Q4 this year of around $1m.
That's pretty good for our mcap. But bearing in mind that we will have debt repayments and capex costs for T3.5, without a u-turn in the tungsten price, it could be a few years yet before the multi-bag scenario becomes likely.
Near term news flow is key to determining our future direction. We need to get this gold out of the way, confirmation on production commencing from new concentrator, and then a few months with increasing numbers. SP will respond in accord...but likely Q4 before too much momentum I'm thinking

We're currently sitting on the 50% retracement line from peaks of Jan & May. Shorters may push down to 62% which'd be as low as 8.5p (somewhat inline with bearish forecasts). Alternative perspective could be to view the retracement post-rise from the Blackrock sale, which'd have a target of around 9.5p
Buyers n shorters (needing covered) are out there, so will be interesting to see how far down they're willing to take this before buying. Also wondering who is borrowing to the shorters. Sure some of these guy will be wanting their shares back.

Ask is now at 11.07, already 5% down with 23mins of trading.

BTW: Re brokers, note that we've not heard from BMO for a year now! Barclays issued 28p a few weeks back, and our 2 new brokers (as of May) haven't done anything... Given that we've 4 brokers on our books. It shouldn't be too long post-results before they give an update on forecasts here. May bring a bit more positive messaging into the mix

Seems that Berenberg have basically taken fcf of 17mill and given a multiplier of 5x. They must be taking assumption 2020 is not going to show ANY improvement in numbers, which is kind of somewhat implied by recent trading update.

PDL officially became my second worst ever investment today... Will need to take a longer step back to find the key learning points in here. As posters on here are commenting, there is no question about near-mid term liquidity. So shouting out at the moment is that it's not just the biz, but wider industry sentiment that can drive SP. Perhaps stocks like PDL (now) should only be for day traders or for loose change until rationale returns to market. Would hate to think what could happen to PDL if there really is a recession in 12-18 months time!

Petra Diamonds Ltd : Berenberg cuts target price to 8p from 25p

I have NO IDEA how such a bearish outlook can suddenly arise, but it has. Dangerous slope this one !!!