Member Info for JTS13

In answer to your question from "the other" board. I believe HUR to be a good play for now. Ideal was to buy in sub-31p a few days back. However, real uptrend likely to occur with either a close above 32.5p or a break north of the 25 SMA on 4hr chart (approx 32.8p). Anticipating clean sailing north towards 35/36p for the next test. Assuming no Trump tweet or anything like that, a foreseeable 10% from here within the next week or so (IMO)
Equally, worth looking into this for the longer haul. If brent stays above 65$, hard to see why this won't reach new highs within next 12-24 months.
I've personally got two trades going on here. One short term (via traders account which picked up on the recent dip) and another long term (which is admittedly at a reasonable loss since the drop).
Anyway, DYOR
PS: Seasons greetings

Indeed, v quiet @Smokey

@Steve, suggest raising the question on HUR board. I'll post my answer there

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/w-resources-plc_w-resources-secures-additional-5mln-funding-activity-6613577412003409920-CuD_

MM says that funding was "double" that required in order to guarantee no forward funding problem.

Positive cashflow in the new year... though no clear statement as to when in this new year that may be. Hopefully not December in this new year!

Close above 0.315 is what's required for the next move up... May take a bash or two to break, especially given such a rise yesterday there may be a few profit takers.
Likely going to sit back and stop looking here for a while again myself. Hopefully will be a different status in the new year

Like how MM states that the new funding provides “significant cash resources over and above what we need to take our new production mine and processing plant into large scale production. This removes any questions out there in the market as to our financial strength and the upsizing of the loan by 5M should surely demonstrate that to the market”. (quote from the Vox interview)

Definitely an important milestone, but not enough for me to buy back all them shares I sold off (at a 25% loss…even at 0.4p!)

Still hold a couple mill shares in here, but want to see loan provided, production figures and further improvement in the APT prices prior to increasing my holding.

Good news. Hopefully an end to this down period, but doubt it’ll be enough to generate the rises anywhere near back to what I (personally) was hoping for when originally investing here back in 2013. 2020 will truly be a transformational year

Would be nice.... However, think that currency movements may put some downward pressure on SP (given that our debt is in $ after all)

If GS only got fined 30-odd mill for 220million breaches of law, we can't expect ARCM fine (IF happens) to be much... Given that ARCM have such a big stake here, a few million quid is peanuts for them. And if a junior exec gets a ban on trading in UK as a punishment (worst case) then so be it.
I also view this whole incident as timely attempt to influence the market and force down the SP. Also note that they're shorting since 2017 has been at 70's SP. So they won't want this rising more... Rights issue is best thing for them and they'll put all their weight into forcing TD down that direction.
TD may need to make some difficult decision. Play down debt and secure a safe refinancing, hopefully via alternative source of finance which would allow repayment of HF. I'd take that!! However, if ARCM keep up the pressure, it could result in inability to act on new investments such as Sea Lion... Personally, I'm for playing down debt at the moment and seeing a cleaner balance sheet before taking on more debt for Sea Lion. I recognise that oil price in 1 year from now may be higher, costs of development may rise, and first oil could be delayed... But, I admit that I'm looking at SP 1-2 years down the line, not only at 10+ years later

Just re-read that.... actually, GS then got a 30% discount from FCA for agreeing "to resolve the case speedily". So they only had to pay 34.3million pounds.
FCA spokesman said "“These were serious and prolonged failures" but only fined 34.3 million. Insane!

Doubt anything to happen here with ARCM incident

When Woodford Equity Income Fund was found out to be in trouble, the market jumped on it and shorted half the guys portfolio and tore it to shreds.

What happens if this principle applies to PMO & ARCM? Assuming market got sufficiently convinced PMO is a good play and has no risk refinancing in 2021, then market predators should have a field day here and buy long, forcing ARCM to cover their short and get significantly burned... That's how the market should work. Fierce and brutal. And not just for PI's!

Quite possible though that ARCM have under the table deals with GS and others, where they can somehow manage to scramble out of their short without creating a surge in the SP

PS: With regards to reporting scandal. GS themselves were caught breaking the law 220 MILLION TIMES in the past 10 years!!! FCA only fined them a crappy 49M GBP though. Peanuts compared to the billions of quid they likely raked in as a result of knowingly breaking the law...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldman-sachs-regulator-fine/goldman-sachs-fined-45-million-by-uk-watchdog-for-reporting-failures-idUSKCN1R913Z

Lancaster is priority money maker here and value will materialise as production reports come through over time. 20% discount on SP compared to last week (i.e. >$200M of MC!). HUR is not a large holding of mine, but have added this morning as don't see this discount sticking around for too long

Watching MACD and RSI start to swing positive today. Anticipate a good week as sideliners buy in with increased confidence that the low has been formed. Upcoming news should also help bring in some buy on anticipation (well results, OPEC meeting later in week etc).... All just opinion, but anticipating a good week in TLW myself

Good chance this'll help lift the SP... however, quite an unconvincing email for me personally. I take lack of specific production numbers as an indication that ramp up to full production by Dec 19 as not going to happen. Many of us LTHs were expecting this announcement to be made 6 months ago, equating to a 50% delay. Following poor foreign exchange handling and other mgt issues, small wonder cash has been a major concern.

Think this is a good RNS for those who've recently invested. But a bit disappointing for myself. May need another 6 months to get some actual movement here, and even then, will be capped by all those recent warrants

Think a few PMO holders will already be in here. I see a few familiar names

Anyway, see this continuing to drift for another couple of days with a floor of 128.5-ish (going back to 2015 Q4). RSI has started to rise, all-be-it slowly, and expect to see macd cross into positive territory near the end of the week. These sort of actions typically see a few more buy-ins from people sitting on sidelines and waiting/reading the technicals. Obv got well results to follow and other macro events (trade talks etc etc) which'll each impact SP in their own way... I've bought in a small holding and will be sitting on these for a good 6 months or so. Oil prices often usually rally in late winter / early spring, so unless TLW has more bad news in the pipeline, all seems to bode well for the patient (IMO)

@Colonel, like how you're not wasting time responding to comments / questions about selling. Focus on the share / company is what I respect about your posts and not getting bogged down with the unnecessary noise.

Most others have only been here for a few weeks or a couple of months at best. The Colonel rarely comments on his buy/sells, but did a few months ago mention about picking up around 1.2mill at around the 10p mark. That's besides other purchases. Frankly, he's within his right to either de-risk, or trade about some of the shares which he's picked up in the 6's in order to reduce his average.

Mentioning that shorters are present and likely to want to limit rises should not be rocket science. Much sound reasoning in the Colonels posts and I personally agree with the risk of further "short-term" shorting activity. Given that we've got the special tender in early Nov, I may pick-up another hundred k or so myself as we get there, but not now, not when there's a real potential of picking them up at a further 10-15% cheaper than todays price.

If Liam is right and SP rebounds sooner than expected, and shorters start buying back, then great. I won't complain about waiting and missing the top-up opportunity. A 5 figure paper loss is already enough and not wanting that to grow unnecessarily.... sometimes it is worth heeding caution!

ie. nothing miraculous!
However, equally nothing screaming out 80% drop in SP.

So given context of recent performance, seems unjustified

@red, yes, i observed that also. He replied that they do not disclose publicly their forecasts. As previously discussed on here tho, could be a learning from PMO. Equally, given ST is somewhat flat and profits are H2 onwards, makes sensw for him him not to vocalise and give active shorters "quotes" to justify a further drive down

Np @Bigsmoke.

On phone, so full of typos, but just summarising my key takeaways

Thanks for posting DBNO. I personally takeaway 2 key points:

(1) PDLs internal expectation towards more exceptional diamonds, highlighted by "We anticipate that we will continue to recover exceptional stones, as we continue to progress across the c-cut"

(2) Emphasis about potential for uptick in pricing, highlighted by "decent amount of hedges in place and number one reason for the hedges is really to protect the downside risk more than benefiting from the upside potential...the intention is still to continue with hedging sort of opportunitistically going forward." This statements is pretty bullish. They'll hedge less as result of not wanting to fix pricing at bottom of curve! (although they do balance it with ST comment)

(3) Richard from Berenberg accepts that Cullinan ROM rates is above their analyst expectations. Ongoing positives like this could suggest further rationale (or excuse) for Berenburg to up their forecasts

(4) Duffy indicates potential for increase in EoY run rate numbers in H2 (subject to performance over holiday periods). This is consistent with observations from Colonel

(5) Duffy seemed (i only read, didn't listen) somewhat irritated with Richards ongoing questions on pricing and reiterated latest tender that prices were up, and that this excludes the exceptional blue diamond... Just reading objectively, it's black n white that Duffy is saying this next quarter should be good!

(6) 2nd week December, i.e. after 3rd tender, is when question about covenants needs to really be asked. Sounds like if things are stable at current pricing, they clear the high inventory & sell the blue diamond at a good rate, then should be fine. However, further downside in pricing and there may be need for adjustment... Equally, Jacque reiterated that lenders "continue to express support and there's no reason to believe that this discussion might not be fruitful"

(7) H2 will involve more regular updates as 2022 makes progress. This should help with sustaining a clear direction in SP (either up or down)

(8) Reiteration that the undrawn facilities remain "undrawn". i.e. no foreseeable cash flow problem

(9) Logical point is made that there is no need to discuss bond refinancing at the moment. Firstly because it is not urgent, and secondly cause it is worst possible time to negotiate. Give it another few quarters and then consider discussing when fcf numbers are higher and diamond prices have started to reverse.... very logical to me!

Heard some others say that the tone wasn't the most enthusiastic. However, just reading the text and it sounds ok to me

My take on this is that it's not a bad report. The 23% drop is a headline screamer for any shorter out there. However, this has obviously been priced in (given SP has dropped multiples of that!)

The key take-aways beyond whatever day trading might happen today are:
- 2nd tender indicated a potential trend stop or reversal on diamond prices,
- Increase in net debt is result of increased inventories or near equal amount. i.e. we're basically at near constant net debt as to end of June. So SP has dropped from 20 down to 8 on a same status basis!
- Excludes sale of large blue diamond.

Given that (i) net debt (factoring in inventories) has not changed, (ii) that revenue slippage is looking to freeze / arguably grow given the pending blue diamond sale, and (iii) SP has dropped significantly. I can see the next trading update to give very positive numbers and the SP returning to teens either in anticipation for that, or on publishing on that.

Good time to buy

...needs to still be taken in terms of perspective of recent SP. i.e. 30% up from now, and this is us having just gone up over 20% in past couple of trading days

Whilst a downgrade from Goldman. They (a) maintain a buy, (b) maintain a forecast up from here.

Personally need about 16p to break even. So more 'upgrades' or unique diamond finds appreciated

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1570609840767593600/broker-ratings-summary-morgan-stanley-cuts-hsbc;-investec-raises-rbs.aspx