Member Info for JTS13

Agreed Tiger Re: gold price. I personally expect an attack on 1920 on Monday. What happens next is anybody's guess. Some commentators see MACD and RSI pointing downwards and therefore some selling as we close the month. Others view a month close above 1900 as pivotal in setting up a move towards 2000 during rest of Q3.
Eitherway, market is broadly consistent towards an uptrend in gold at least into beginning of 2021.
Interestingly, Aug futures are slightly down on spot price. Which does seem to suggest a minor correction coming. Whereas Dec futures are at 1925$s already, having peaked at 1933$ on Friday. I've heard it said that remove the JPM & other big bank manipulation, and futures price is fairly indicative of what spot price should be.

That asides, it's not like HUM SP has had any correlation to gold price. e.g. Gold's up 35% since 2017 Q4 (when the mine started). We've not even moved. The only way gold can be viewed to correlate to HUM is by purposefully manipulating the reference point to negative news, line the flooding.

Even if gold dropped down to 1600, HUM should still be waaay above current MC

Friday close at 39.4 was highest since 2014. Previous high which we just broke was in Nov 2017. What's needed to confirm next leg up is a close above 40.5. That'll put HUM into the trading range of up to ~43p. We may encounter some resistance around 42.5p, but I'd expect this to go up to 45p pretty quickly.
As shown in chart (https://invst.ly/rknmw) HUM just had a breather between 10-20th July which set it up for next move north. It's locked and loaded.
As per indirect reference 2 sentences ago, I would expect HUM to consolidate again following this rise. Just my guess, but I'll go for a rise up to ~45p, with a retrace back down to ~42.5p all within next couple of weeks. It's in our mid-long term interest to let RSI cool and not get too far ahead of moving averages. That's when traders move in and unknowing PI's get squeezed out of what is otherwise a great position.
Personally, I don't trade on technicals, but like to keep an eye on them as they can really help with timing a buy-in / sale on a fundamental play. HUM is definitely one with solid fundamentals. It just happens that technicals suggest a very important multi-year breakout is imminent...and anyone who's been watching the commodity space will know what that means! :D :D

Obviously, an amazing RNS could come out and this could re-rate on that alone. Eitherway, it's looking north

Wait, what!? Is HUM getting close to being valued at the same price as it was when it was just a ditch???

Jeezo. Soon somebody out there might think it be worth pricing in all the gold that's being produced and giving some value to the other LT projects HUM's got.

To think that LTHs here who have watched this mine come online, Gold surge almost 50% and HUM make decent moves on other assets might soon be able to make a profit.... This is unreal! Even the thought of it reminds me of why I actually invested here in the first place

Some good posts here. Thanks to those posting earlier

Just to add a few point

1) Covid situation in SA is noticeably worse than UK. Mainstream narratives often influence broader sentiment...ie. risk of positive cases in mine, further lockdown, etc
2) Sector is still little understood. As I've mentioned on here before, I think that association as a miner rather than a battery developer will always drag the multiplier here. At least for foreseeable future...arguably London is wrong index for either??
3) Trading updates provide comparisons with past quarter and past year. This will continue to play negative until end of 2020. Why? V price has only just stabilised and started rising again. Will take a few quarters to remove the skewing and paint positive picture. Hence why now is arguably one of the best times to invest.
Read https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3941546/Vanadium/China-vanadium-alloy-prices-consolidate-against-firm-offers-waning-buying-interest.html for more. Once we have stable production growth PLUS increased V price. Game on!
4) BMN seems to get no appreciation for its strategy of downstream integration. This is genius!! Not only gaining share in battery developers (spreading risk in tech development) but also securing guaranteed demand for product. Win win!

Not to mention the obvious effect of multiplying output over the next few years, this is going to be an exciting play. Perhaps not daily excitement, but I'm not into that. This is a lovely wait and hold play

Is the Sprott news valid?
Would of thought that there would be much more news confirming this, but don't see any other references immediately available - other than the similar story from 2011 (https://americangoldmetals.com/sprott-to-buy-1-5b-of-silver-bullion-2/)

Thanks for posting. Great link

I'm personally in BMN for their downstream investments into battery storage, as see the mining element to always be stereotyped & therefore treated as a miner rather than an ESG play. Hopefully the growth in energy component of the business will outstrip the mining in a few years (just my hope).

Another great play which will gain from above in GRID. It's a pure battery storage play. Growing at 100% per annum. 6% divi (on todays SP). Capital growth of 10-20% a no brainer, however it's more of a defensive/divi ESG play rather than this.

Potentially NEXS could also benefit from this? I'm not in there myself, but they do have a component looking into charging stations for EVs. Definitely a high growth sector, just too small a part of their biz for me personally.

Anyway, interesting link all the same

Very clear position building here with regular 90k buys going through every couple of days. GRID has always been a bit of a no brainer to me, especially since they went for debt financing over equity raise the other month. As mentioned in previous post, 130p is personal base target. Rationale for this being in comparison to other ESG plays with similar dividend policy. The rate of progression to get there being determined by broader market acceptance towards battery storage as a concept. I had thought 5 years should be a safe target... With the broader uncertainties in market, we might even see that being achieved within 18 months. Why? (a) High and STABLE dividends are few and far between. V attractive as part of any defensive strategy. (b) Only reason for still putting this back to 18 months is because too many people base research on historical data - AKA financial reports - alone, and fail to see that a company may already have/be close to having achieved a certain NAV/performance.
Eitherway, still staying here. Decided not to add more at the low prices because didn't want to go too overweight into a single stock. Double digit %age holding in a single play is already enough! Arguably, may need to offload a few when we get to 130 and re-balance portfolio

Stodgy: note that you can reinvest the cash from whatever you sell almost immediately (as per ianb's post). However, if you are wanting to withdraw your cash from HL, there is typically a 2 day clearing period. So you should sell a little on advance if you need the cash

Equally, given that you seem to have not made many transactions before, suggest you also note the costs involved. i.e. broker commission on both buying and selling, as well as what is essentially a government tax. Then you need to beware the spread (difference between buying and selling price). Loosely, if you invested 1 grand, you need a minimum of 3% return just to cover costs, but potentially a 10% increase in share price just to break even and also cover the spread... so be careful about how much u may want to buy and sell.

What did you decide to do in the end @Seaking?

PS: I'm guessing that NAV update on 30th July will show a slight decline. Hopefully not as significant as TRIG had a few months back! If you're not in by then, possibly buy-in on the dip?

ngnlnv, congrats on breaking out of the red. I've only got about a third of the holding I used to as sold the rest at about 30% down. Saw it drop all the way down to about 10p and was glad to have sold out. As mentioned, bought back about a third with average now of about 25p, but will need this to get closer to 50p to clear historic losses.
HUM was never supposed to be an investment for me. Was a hedge against economic downturn that turned disastrously wrong a few years back. Irony is that when the downturn did come, I was no longer in here.
Ah well. Glad I picked up some pure gold though

I was fortunate to pull out of most stocks late Jan, before the lockdowns spread too far. CAMLs usually been one of those cyclical plays for me. However, with copper surging of late and EV demand etc going to go through the roof in coming years, this is now a clear hold.
To be fair, have much less in here than I've had at different times in the past, but can't complain with a forward divi of almost 10%

Interesting, some of you guys are really big in precious metals right now. Hope the next few weeks of likely instability with end of Q2 GBP numbers and fund repositioning (in my opinion) to work out well for your plays. Am just over 5% at the moment, although likely be adding some more. Similar in O&G, but have around 20% in cash. My main defensive play is in ESGs. SP hardly budges (slowly ticking up if nothing else), but can’t grumble with a fairly reliable 5-10% per year regardless of what happens with Covid & wider economy.

Just throwing out a wild idea here, but seen it often enough to know it happens...

We know that the Cassidy deal has been in discussion for a while. The agreement of 10 mill in equity might have been settled a while before the public announcement, but there may have also been an unofficial agreement that the percentage of equity will equal a certain amount in HUM. i.e. a lower SP at time of purchase would result in more shares attributed towards Cassidy owners. Wouldn’t you rather have 9.1% rather than 5% of HUM? This then means that they get a larger return in HUM’s growth. Could have been that Sustainable Capital were in the know (as a significant stakeholder) and agreed to sell off to suppress the SP, knowing that they’d quickly be earning big bucks on the acquisition... There’re always a few people who believe in the FCA & all that, but legalistic idealism doesn’t go far in the financial world.

Anyway, just floating that out there as an ambitious hope. Why hope? Cause that would mean that with transaction through, we can then start sailing

Most obvious thing to me thought would be that Sustainable Capital has a predetermined company policy about selling off a given percentage of their stake after a 100%+ profit - which is frankly a discipline that every investor should have. I’ve not been monitoring Shanta, but depending on when they bought in, both Shanta & HUM have had significant SP increases since their lows.

Who knows... Anyway, I mentioned on here back in March that I’d been avoiding buying more HUM out of precaution towards virus spreading and shutting down the mine. So bought more physical gold instead. That risk seems to be much less than before, so will consider adding a bit more. (I’m still down around 7-8 grand here, so no guarantees the money will be coming into HUM over another junior gold miner)

Have a good weekend @All

Just quickly clarifying 2 points:
Firstly, 9% dilution. Yes, this is correct, but easily subject to misunderstanding. The raising dilutes the holding percentage of a shareholder, but was at a premium to the share price. That's of more importance to most shareholders as it is accreting to value, not diluting to value.
Secondly, he didnt go on about net debt (in terms of when we will reach it this year). But that's not what is important. The important thing is that this new mine will be financed out of cash flow and existing debt finance (per recent RNS). We shouldnt fear any equity raising or new debt that'll damage our balance sheet besodes what has already been communicated.

To be honest, HUM has never been about dividends for me. It's a defensive play...well, it's meant to be, but has defo been among my top 3 of worst performers of all time as first bought in in mid-40s.
Consequently, not issuing divi's is not an issue for me with regards to my reasons for investing into HUM. However, recognising that it is for many, and that therefore this decision carries potential for also offering capital growth, I would much rather some statement which issued a framework - as others have mentioned here. At least for example, establishing some base parameters, like: on conditions that POG averages over $1,600 for X period, and subject to free cash flow exceeding a certain Y threshhold, the directors may consider allocation of 'Z%' of funds towards dividends.
An established framework with an initial divi, regardless of how small, could bring in more shareholders who seek such plays. That's for sure.

Problem is that we don't know how much Sustainable Capital is looking to offload. Judging from past 2 holding statements, we may receive a further one next week. If not, at least it would indicate that their selling has slowed.
The technicals are still looking a bit sour to me, but main thing is that this doesn't go below 25p in the short term. We've got at least another month before news on Q2 performance. This is likely to be main important catalyst, followed by the interims.
Don't see macro position improving much before then, all positive for POG & HUM

@Fishfaced: Comes from phonetic of the truncated "uhv" sound you get in "would have" for example.

Being that forums are typically a place for offering opinions and ideas, it's natural for people to express as they would speak.

I fail to see how this will help you invest in LLOY, but if that's what does it for you. Then good for you

You're not missing anything Allforone. LSE trading hours are less than half a full day. Significant macro-news can come out at any time in the day which may alter a company's share price. For example, some people on here were saying that a drop this morning was inevitable. Why was this obvious? Because the FED news at 19:00 last night resulted in the banking index in US to drop over 5%, so it was obvious that this drop would continue in UK once UK market was open. Had we been open at 19:00 last night, you wouldn't of seen such a sudden drop as this morning, but a sharp drop over a period of time (even if that time may be only counted in minutes). Looking back at historical figures, spikes generally indicate that there was significant news. Either an RNS or some other major macro event

I commented the other day about how I'd interpreted the Dugbe news as potentially resulting out of opportunity cost. i.e. develop Dugbe at significant cost to shareholder equity, or take a measure similar as taken and then focus on other ops. Voila, and so it has happened. Gotta say, I'm chuffed with the quick succession of these announcements. It also seems that the expanded monologue on strategy has been added out of communicated concerns from Shareholders following the Dugbe news.
Whilst I have not read 'all' posts below from today, what I do find interesting is a seeming lack of conversation around 2 points which I personally consider influential:
(a) Equity raise at 28.4p is a good premium to current SP. Now i recognise that SP was around that range for a while recently, but Cassidy could easily of argued for a reduced rate / average of share price over recent "X" trading days. They haven't, so obviously are satisfied with the premium and believe that they'll make good on their investment... As such, so should we. No?
(b) Linkage between timeframe of 2 years here & Dugbe. Surely that's not coincidence!? Assuming development plan and everything for Dugbe is drawn up and 2 years from now it's time to raise the necessary capital, ain't it great timing to have both the cash flows from Yan' + fresh cash inflows from a new mine (assuming project development kept on schedule)? I mean, if project is kept on schedule and budget (+10-15% slippage) cash flows from Yan alone would cover most of the development for Kouroussa, meaning that credit facilities may be (depending upon other potential ventures) viable for use to fund major component of Dugbe.
Now above approach wouldn't be tremendously lucrative for shareholders in terms of divis. But throw in a few variations and the narrative has gotta start getting quite attractive to certain other big boys who we'll be rubbing shoulders with on the Council. Clearly Crichton-Scott knows about all this as he made big bucks from such M&A activity in Oz during the last post-financial crises gold market

Personally, I think this past week will mark a pivotal milestone in HUM's story when we look back in 3-5 years to come. We've gone from being a small outfit with one operational mine with a potential, but questionable future (due to LOM etc still not being finalised and having some nice ideas but nothing fixed). To now being a multi-asset gold producer / developer with a clear development plan that could keep HUM busy for the next 5 years minimum. Upon which, we'd be producing ~400k ounces per annum at decent return.

Start of a new era? Certainly one to watch, and I'm happy to sit on a comfy sofa on the inside

Interesting article Re: today's China numbers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-07/china-s-exports-fall-less-than-expected-in-may-imports-slump

Most news tends to be negatively focused. However, this one highlights that reduced imports also makes sense due to nature of the core products being imported also having their values slashed (like oil, soybean etc).

Ftse 100 weekend trading has recovered from it's short drop post market close on friday afternoon, so would be nice to think that markets will open either neutral or positive tomorrow. If so, technicals are looking positive for LLOY this week

Evening Nash. When I was in my early 20's, I lived in an apartment on one of Hong Kong's Islands (obv worked overseas in HK at the time). Had mountain view from balcony & rooftop, as well as 3 beaches within 20 minutes walk. Gave it up to pursue a "better" career. Ironically, I wish I could go back in time and I'd happily take my old job and live in my old village apartment.
We learn from our own experiences. Myself? From relatively humble backgrounds, but have made ends meet and made conscious decisions. Aim is to keep things always within budget and prioritise being able to save each month into a growing pot. There're plenty of schemes and plays out there for a savvy saver to (in time) accrue sufficient funds to lead a contented lifestyle. Important thing is patience. Divis of hundreds build into divis of thousands, and depending on how one chooses to live, it can quickly become enough to cover a core part of one's living expenses.
Personally, I view much of this as a failure in today's education system. Two of the most important things in life (a) financial management, and (b) nutrition. Students are taught neither at school. No wonder Britains because an increasingly unhealthy and less equal country.