Member Info for JRDC

Crl123 - how can you say the dispute is factored in when no one knows if nova will win the dispute and get back to £2+ or lose and need an emergency fund raise at pennies to keep the lights on for 12 months.

This share is a complete gamble at the moment which is why it's dropping. If Dave was really confident we'd not only win the dispute, but have it resolved in next 3-6 months he'd have stuck around to claim the glory. Getting back to my average of £3.50 is probably impossible short of another pandemic, so its damage limitation for me.

Doesn't really matter what nova RNS product wise, or a £250k contract, only one thing will have a positive effect on the SP and that's successful resolution of the dispute.

You get a lot of stick PI100, and when this happens on the avacta board i usually join in in telling them to FRO as they're utterly clueless deramping t055ers just out to try and irritate posters who are invested in one the UKs most promising companies. In this case though your predictions have been more correct than anyone else on this board, new investors thinking this is a bargain based on mcap and cash in the bank would do well to read your posts. Easily the most inept company I've ever invested in, and I have shares in SYME.

We'll probably end up with Colin King from ODX. Doubt many people will be jumping at the chance until the outcome of the court case, might not be much of a company left given how utterly useless this outfit is

(watch Al release a 1 line RNS tomorrow just to say we're moving to 1b and make me look a ***)

I don't think we'll hear for the next week or two, perhaps longer, even if company have results back now. This is cancer changing news, they aren't going to release a 1 paragraph RNS and be done with it. They'll want to arrange presentations, invite clinical experts to review data, drum up interest (such as recent conference). As part of same news I imagine they'll outline 1b, perhaps identify the best tumour type to target. In fact the longer it takes for them to release to market, the more serious and company changing it is, won't be trivialised with a 'oh BTW it works quite well' RNS. Maybe they're even discussing licence terms behind the scenes.

Take as long you need, Al.

That took me down a Google rabbit hole, Bein.
Had a skim read of this article from March this year

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1742706121008266

"Furthermore, 1 of 6 patients treated with L-377,202 at the efficacious dose of 225 mg/m2 exhibited dose-limiting neutropenia"
So far the best they can do with Dox is mild hyperthermia by dunking you in an uncomfortably hot bath.

Why the obsession here with avacta? Nova was a pure covid play, did well and now backfired and haemorrhaging cash due to sloppy management not reading contracts they've signed (I've lost thousands here) , avacta got distracted by covid, spaffed up cash but quickly realised they were on to a loser, but theyre now weeks or even days away from discovering if their cancer targeting precision tech is safe, potentially opening up a drugs pipelines worth billions.

Exactly. If ava had horrific side effects, wasn't tolerated and didnt appear to have any effect on tumours they wouldn't be sponsoring, let alone presenting, as theyd need to go back to the drawing board. Just sit back, watch the market carnage unfold over the next few weeks as shorters try to get out and look forward to a decent xmas and new year.

if you have shares in freetrade then there doesnt appear to be an option to buy these extra ones, unless im missing something

Bronte have until 4.30pm Wednesday 2nd imo to get the hell out cheaply.

Like many here, I've been trying to place a value on what ava6000 alone could be worth to Avacta. Its near impossible, theres little out there in a similar clinical stage, targeting similar tumours, delivering a similar drug. I know Al said he wouldn't licence his lead asset, but iI thought I'd try find some figures regardless

So we know that the dox market alone was $1bn in 2020, increasing 6% each year, estimated to be $1.3bn in 2024, according Al, who probably googled this link

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/doxorubicin-market

Arrow pharmaceuticals are developing an AATD drug for liver disease, a market worth $1.2bn in 2021 and set to increase, so not too dissimilar to Dox

https://www.globaldata.com/media/pharma/alpha-1-antitrypsin-deficiency-market-reach-3-48-billion-2031-driven-entrance-several-novel-therapies-says-globaldata/

Upon completion of Phase 1, which took a few years from initial opening to completion, and shortly after starting Phase 2 trials, Takeda wanted in, although the delay in announcement could be due to talks between the two as soon as phase 1 was over.

https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2020/takeda-and-arrowhead-collaborate-to-co-develop-and-co-commercialize-aro-aat-foralpha-1-antitrypsin-associated-liver-disease/

Its a "Potential first in class Therapy", certainly novel like Ava. It seems like a complex drug hence lengthy trials, certainly higher risk to back than ava6k which just helps a drug we already know is fookin powerful and works to be delivered to the tumour, and cause less damage to the rest of the body. Yet takeda have stumped up a lot of cash and a lot of risk.

"Arrowhead is eligible to receive up to $1.04B including an upfront payment of $300M and potential development, regulatory and commercial milestones up to $740M"
"Investigational medicine ARO-AAT to be co-developed and co-commercialized in the United States by Takeda and Arrowhead under a 50/50 profit-sharing structure"

Now this is drug aimed at liver disease, its not opening up a new platform or transferable to other drugs about to go off patent. They're still in phase 2 trials. But wouldn't a licence deal like that be at least partly tempting?

Al might be able to afford a conservatory this time next year.

According to fca bronte still at 0.5%

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwi6qtiZ0vn6AhVJY8AKHYHCB9AQFnoECAkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw06xgJNLygRkuTA8rE1ntGk

I moved my sons junior saver account cash that's been earning 0.1% to avacta when it hit £1. Its gone up more in 6 hours than it did in 2 and a bit years in Halifax, and we're still 4-6 weeks away from the big news. Thank you, Jupiter!

I'd buy more and have cash ready but like many others, we're waiting for Russia/Ukraine peace. One small tactical nuke and all bets are off.

Wtf? Makes me hope that dhsc wins the dispute as all nova will do is p! Ss it up the wall and it'll disappear in 5 years in to the Bods back packet. Complete shambles l.

She's old now though. Boobfall

Nice to see a decent blue day for a chance, I've taken a gamble and sold a bit this afternoon. If it goes up further tomorrow so be it.

Based on every other share I have if you take the brokers target and halve it, it's usually far closer to the SP than their guess.

Realistically, given the market making me pessimistic about anything, I'll take 10p right now in Jan, and then 20p by year end 23.

If War in Ukraine ends then double those figures.

Someone call the police, theres been a robbery.

I've paid under £1.13 for a wad of shares. Not since the early days of $20 bitcoin have I seen such a bargain.

When I first invested in Avacta I wondered why they'd target 'rare' cancers first as opposed to going straight for the most common like breast or testicular. Never really queried it as I assumed they had their reasons other than it will work with a drug out of patent and I'm happy to back a platform that fights cancer, but it was in the back of my mind of 'why not go for the most common and therefore most demand?'.

It seems like ODD has been the near term target all along and I just didnt realise - get the financial benefits such as 7 year exclusivity, but also it means tax relief for clinical trial costs of 50%! Had they'd done this against more common cancer types they wouldn't qualify for this, and would have found it far more expensive to take to trial. This trial isn't just proving that works with Dox, but they'll have attained a hell of a lot of clinical research data that can be applied to pretty much any other chemo drug from same class like Bleomycin which is also extremely potent with nasty side effects. The UK already gives healthy tax credits of 230%, but this also means they benefit from US tax breaks and exposure over there.

Anyway, thanks for the cheap shares, whoever sold!

@frutsels - I'll see your EUR BOD and raise you ODX.