Member Info for JRDC

I take it this means approval or other major news isn't imminent otherwise he'd have waited a month and raised a heck of a lot more at 3-4p.

Makes Art from COPL look like a competent businessman. Avacta showed how to raise capital properly, would have been a better model to use.

wish this ****ty site had an edit function. 30-40%, not 400%

managed to get matched at 1.28 today, first time i've bought more in a while. feel like i've mugged someone. can i see them beating 5% fixed rate savers over 3 years? i reckon so.

my worst case is as follows:

ava6k found not to improve patient survival rates over regular dox, but still becomes standard care due to lower toxicity and kinder to patients. also only approved for sts, no one interested in using it for breast cancer, and its limited to 3 courses at £2000 a pop, and assume we have a p1ss poor 30-400% margin. affimer platform fails, and 3996 is stuck in development and all but abandoned, no one wants a licence, so avacta relying on ava6k sales alone. we'll imagine nhs and rest of world declines approval, so from 2026/2027 the only market is the us. in us there are 13400 new sts patients each year, so let's say each of these gets 3 courses at £2k a go. thats £6000 for each patient. that's £80m in revenue, probably £20-30m profit, every year for 10 years. how much are companies with £30m annual profit worth? assume a pe ratio of 15, that's £450m mcap. so if everything goes utterly **** up, im still expecting the sp to be +23% from now. even fund managers would be happy with a 23% rise in 3 years. realistically i think we'll do a bit better than that.

Not quite true, dhub

CBR

"This interest is gratifying and, given our limited resources and the need to focus on our lead product HEMO-CAR-T, we have made considerable progress and plan to devote further internal resources to this project as soon as HEMO-CAR-T enters clinical trials."

CDX:

"This remains a potentially valuable part of our portfolio and we will also work to take this forward once our lead product has moved into the clinic."

No news will happen on other platforms until we're in clinical trials. The 'OK' to start might happen this year but the actual process won't happen until probably Feb imo

Not about being thick. At agm Al said the current mcap made it difficult to attract investment as they could potentially get a greater return on something 1/10th ours. Once news is out that ava6k and therefore precision as a whole safe and shows signs of efficiency, peer reviewed, then there will be a scramble to get in. These are people who have heard "it's a cure for cancer, honest gov" probably hundreds of times over the last few decades. Personally, I don't think these investment and venture capital type firms will have chance a get to look in before a major pharma who understands the data better than any of them either take on a licence deal propelling SP or buy lock stock the whole fackin lot.

Their loss, our gain I suppose.

I'd like to see GSK put in a £15bn bid for Avacta and become the gold standard in oncology for breast cancer, soft tissue sarcoma, liver and and pancreatic cancer. Would be nice to keep a British pharma giant instead of being sold off on the cheap

Well in that case they should call the generic name uselessandmuchcrapperubicin, and choose whatever fancy brand name they like. That way when it goes out of patent, the hospital will ask the lead consultants "Do you want to order that expensive avadox again, the computer says the generic alternative is uselessandmuchcrapperubicin?"

I can imagine the interview now...

Paul "Hi, we have here a uh, patient, you know, who, who has been, or er er with Avacta, taking, you know, er uh, and it's er, yeah, so Al said, and yeah, it's er, it's now been going on for er, well, some time, which is, yeah, it's great, so the main reason is, uh yeah, so, yeah it's now sorta, it's now sorta great isn't it? I mean, it's er er er yeah it's Avacta isn't it? "

Patient:" What?"

Ran Pret?

Is Al launching a line of affimer based fillings at his favourite sandwich shop?

I've got some queued to buy at £1 for when Al starts speaking, and then flog at £2 if Elliott pipes up just after.

Looking forward to it, only question I really have (and probably most of us) is about funding. As serious funding takes months of negotiation, which I imagine won't start properly until p1a results come out - 'changes the types of conversation' as Al put it, and Avacta wants to get cracking on p2 ASAP, I presume they'll need funding in place well before h2 to prove to regulators / fda they aren't in a position where they'll have to abandon due to funds.

If he says there's something none dilutive in the works, but dependant on p1a then great. If he says theres nothing concrete yet, then I don't rule out a fund raise, and tbh I wouldn't mind another buying opportunity at £1 before it rockets up in phase 2. I still think licence is most likely if there is significant commercial interest.

"Ah tha' bluddy Albert from 'at pfizer wornt stop bluddy ringing me. Ahh said ah'm in bluddy Wakefield this weekend for Aunt Julie's bluddy funeral but wud meet 'im after at Whaler for a swift 'un. "

Oi, pfizer! Want to change the world? That'll be £20bn please.

"If the trial is successful and AVA6000 is shown to be safe and effective, the potential market value of the drug will be much higher than if the trial is unsuccessful."

My god, this AI is utterly game changing. Amazing that it came up with this on its own.

Should call it WynGPT.

"Sit and wait" for Pfizer to make a bid. Three key members of the Avacta team have held senior positions with them in past, you can be sure they're in contact. Originally Al wanted to focus solely on STS with breast cancer something to consider in future, now it seems breast cancer will be a focus. Are Pfizer wanting data quickly before sales of Adriamycin plummet? Are they the partner who will push this through phase 2? Is this why we've heard nothing about potential partnerships or licencing so far, Pfizer to have first dibs and p1a will "change the types of conversation" to quote Al. Would J&J sit idly by and watch an American competitor potentially corner the oncology market? Will GSK remember they were a pharmacy too?

I'm not one to wish my life away, but I can't wait to see where we are in 12 months time. Feels like Xmas eve, you cant sleep, and you can see a box under the tree you know is an n64 but your dad is winding you up and saying they're socks.

I read a story a good few years ago where a British tourist was in America at a sports bar. They were showing the Liverpool vs Milan champions league final rerun. Just entered half time, Milan 3-0 up and some American pipes up 'no way Liverpool can win this now, game over'. Obviously he didn't know it was a rerun. The brit then said I bet $50 Liverpool will win the trophy, took his money and got out while they were none the wiser.

This feels like Avacta. You have twats like wyn and Terry who say its years off, nothing will come from it, it's not proven, it'll fail. At £1 it's like taking that bet at 3-0 down, knowing with 100% certainty in the near future you're gonna come good, yet commentator's still thinking there's little chance. Just a case of waiting, p1a is the riskiest part and we're about there, probably 4 months from now till the whole world knows there's a safe and effective platform out there able to target tumours directly with decades old chemotherapy but with none of the drawbacks. Dox is dox, even Al admitted this will (not might, or could) replace it as first line for Sts. Might even become first line for breast cancer around the same time.

If mms could keep it at around £1 until October, that would be grand.

I thought it was a good Agm, put to bed the whole is it dox, is it doing anything, why aren't we doing p1a and 1b together.

Negatives

Sort of wanted Al to shup up when he made out Avacta was valued much higher than other peers with 1, 2 or 3 clinical assets, and the revenues from ava of £1.5bn a year are 7 years away, but Avacta won't be around or independent in 7 years so not an issue imo.

I'll be surprised if 1b starts this year given 1a will need to be analysed and peer reviewed and could well be another cohort or two. he said initial read out of 1b data will be 6 months so I reckon this time next year before we see how it compares to dox.

Use of affimers in diagnostics won't be commercialised for at least 12 months

Positives

However, they recognise that 1a will be massive for main stream media "feel good story", the data will be used to demonstrate the platform works and a key to commercialising it. This is when you'll see them on BBC, guardian etc

Clinician couldn't tell a patient was dosed as side effects were minimal

Breast cancer could be a future target after 1b

Imo nowt significant financially will happen until 1a data released, might be wrong, but from reading between the lines they need proof of human safety and efficacy. From then onwards things get exciting right up to 1b results

All completely derisked imo, all a case of patience now and waiting for the inevitable buy out or licence deal

On side effects, Al said "One of the clinicians on the study said he can't tell that patients have been dosed"

Wow

On fiona and team jetting abroad to conferences "Attracted a lot of attention. A lot.. (dramatic pause)"

"Pypa made the wrong choice. So much the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president"

I'm going out shortly, looks like I'm going to miss all the fun.

Took 10 months to capture bakhmut, but a few hours to get halfway to Moscow.