The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Agree the only way to mass test is with LFT and avacta will be huge in comparison to Nova one day, but there is still a market for PCR, especially one that seemingly picks up every major variant. I'm down 15% on nova from once being 100% up, but I've yet to find anyone who thinks a company with over £100m cash in the bank and earning £35m a quarter with up to 80% profit margin excluding DHSC orders are worth way under £300m. I'm sure the dispute will be resolved over the coming months. GM is even more vague than AS.
that I might breach my lifetime allowance a year from now.
Shame there's now feck all chance of a govt order thanks to a daft decision to sue your best customer rather than fight for a new tender. If the RNS had simply said govt had decided not to continue with contract, whilst disappointing, we remain on good terms, btw we made just as much from private sales, I doubt the SP would be below £5 right now.
It's making us look worse than M&S and cakegate.
What was the answer to the question, Shoc? Don't tell me you've had to sign an NDA as well...
Keep us updated Shoc please, I would listen but I would end up randomly typing BAMS in my sql code
Knowing my luck, Avacta will release the test, announce a £1bn order, and then Russia will invade ukraine sending the SP crashing. Only half joking there, I intend on cashing in a good chunk of my ISA soon on next decent breakout
Agree cat. I think GM sees shareholders as a nuisance at best, or viewed with contempt at worst. It's like they're a 90's company with little grasp of social media and how events unfold when information spreads quickly.
The mcap is low, even before it went t!ts, because the market doesn't believe current management are capable. Amateurish RNSs, little to no sales information (they couldn't even be ars3d with a trading update other quarter) and months of radio silence haven't helped, especially as we now know NDAs weren't the reason. Board have taken us as far as they can imo, unless they give us good reason to keep faith. But if they want to be seen as a billion pound company, they very quickly need to start acting like one. Stick this month's earnings in to PR, get on national TV, radio,setup free testing stations in France, Germany, invite politicians on as advisory role, donate funds to MPs who constituents hit badly by covid, buy a senator a yacht etc.
Can we as shareholders ask if nova are under a TO offer? The answer will either be 'no', or 'we can't disclose that information'.
I thought the UK govt had blocked all take overs from key UK industries, so I think the answer is no and it's just the MMs grabbing what they can(and me, these are bargain prices, tempted to sell some avacta even)
We need GM to provide details of the dispute, and what the worst possible financial case will be for us - i hope at worst our liability is limited to the value of the contract (£150m?), otherwise whoever signed it needs firing.
If this drops below £4 I'll probably add my holding, if amigo can come back from the abyss so can nova
Wasn't that bad? My 6 year old would struggle to write a worse one. No phase 2, phase 1 in dispute, 2020 revenues having to be reworked, zero chance of future contracts with UK govt, reputation possibly tarnished for RoW govt orders, naive management so now we have a recruitment drive in place to try and rescue current contract, GM unable to forecast future revenues - currently £12 a month private but I'm guessing that is due to dry up, no other RNS worth contracts, no good news to combat the imminent move towards LFT and to top it off no chance of takeover due to UK Govt rules to put us out our misery. Even porky will struggle to ramp this back to £12. I topped up at £4.40 to average down on hope it might hit £5 level over next fortnight, but if sub £7 was hit when the market was blissfully unaware of the impending doom I think £6 is a tad optimistic.
Sales outside of govt contract (£36m or so) is better than I thought, if there is any silver lining. I think £5-£6 a fairer value. £10+ will probably never be seen again unless we get an unlikely large US order. If the contracts are worded as well as our RNSs are then I doubt we'll be successful in court.
Been a fun ride chaps, first share to see me 50% down, 100% up and then 15% down at £4.30ish in a year.
Good luck those intending to stay in over next few years
Ah well, can't win them all. Will see how the dust settles over next week or so and see if it gets back to over £5 and call it a day. Glad I was a bit cautious and not succumbing to greed.
Not expecting another trading update until June/July, so probably safe to w/d soon and try my chances elsewhere for now.
Ouch, thats wiped out my profit. Might wait to see if it recovers to £5.50 just so I can take 10%. Suing the Govt isn't going to do well for future contracts, so looks like thats the end of the road for nova now, well done those who sold at £12!
Hope porky is ok, he was massively underwater already.
BSI still not showing Avacta as being awarded ISO, so we may get CV tomorrow but definitely not ISO and our own CE marking.
I'm 99% certain Avacta will have gone with BSI like Mologic have and many other UK biotecs (they originally went with someone else for initial audit, but BSI carries far more weight whom they last used in 2018 - the credibility behind the company who carries out the audit is just as important as the award itsself)
https://www.bsigroup.com/en-GB/our-services/certification/certificate-and-client-directory/
Don't get excited yet imo, keep checking the link above. Knowing our luck this will be the one audit that UKAS decide to audit BSI on to ensure they're doing everything by the book!
Under 30's will be offered alternative vaccine.
Wonder if they'll stop giving out the contraceptive pill too then given that causes more blood clots per million
Agree. Jokes about old age related illnesses are deplorable.
An old chap, Harold, lived in a nursing home, his late wife died many years ago. Missing the warm loving of his wife touch he nervously approached another resident, Joan, also a widow. He said "Joan, we're both getting on in life, I don't know how much time we have left, and I'm missing the loving embrace of another person, would you put your hand on my c0ck?"
Joan is completely taken aback, and retreats to her room for the night. She thought about what Harold said and decided he's right, they don't have much time left, and what harm would it do making him happy. The morning after she speaks to Harold and agrees to hold his d!ck, under a blanket.
Every morning for two weeks Joan meets Harold in thee common area, puts a blanket over his lap and holds his n0b.
One day however, she came out her room and spotted another resident sat with her hand under his blanket.
"Harold! How could you? What has she got that I don't?"
And Harold replies "Parkinsons"
Thats my point Shaun. We can guess, make forecasts, assumptions and take a gamble that revenue is where we're hoping it will be. I'm invested in enough shares where the driving factor is hope and jam, i just would like one where sentiment is driven by real figures. If nova really are making millions every week, why isn't GM shouting about it? Doesn't need to say the source, or even the product if its a giveaway. We don't need every contract or sale, just a £x delivered this month. An NDA is no excuse for that.