The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Utter incompetence by this 'agency' and mologic, although not surprising, anything that can delay our test from commercial launch seems to occur.
When our test does launch I'm expecting an RNS to say deliveries are delayed as there's roadworks right outside the gate.
Why have people been expecting it with days? MHRA themselves say up to 30 days, just because one company had it registered in 14 days or so doesnt mean Avacta will. In fact, based on experience here with deadlines, I'll be surprised if we hear within that time frame. It will come when it comes, doesnt sound like anything is going to happen with sovereign test decision until end of June anyway, so no rush.
I take it that they're going to start actively pushing them more now there is a bigger portfolio to choose from. Whereas the 1st gen pcr sold itself and they struggled to keep up with demand I think they'll need to do some legwork with versalab.
Ps, we're about to enter H2, so it is immediately
I'm hoping that private sales in next quarter update are still strong, dread to think what will happen to the SP if 'only' £10m this time, which would still justify £5+ imo. Given what GM has said previously I'm not expecting much.
Well this share is turning out to be a waste of 12 months. What is it with GM and refusing to give figures? If he said 'potentially up to £200m reduction', even if worst case, it would let us shareholders make an informed decision. If they're going to take them to court, then ****ing do it. This is going sub £3 imo.
Pretty sure manchester airport use primerdesign Q machines for PCR (via fit to fly), certainly did with Boots, so would make sense that novacyt are trialling their LFT there for CE and q2 launch. Wouldn't surprise me if theirs is on the market before ours either...
What manipulation? We're part of a framework that May or may not provide additional sales. While good news and long overdue, the SP needs needs figures and conclusion of the dispute.
GMs reluctance to give any sort of revenue prediction is what is keeping the SP in the gutter. If he said we had £20m in private sales this quarter, and expect similar going in Q3 and q4, hello £10 again.
MHRA update their website of approved devices/manufacturers every Monday, maybe we'll find out the same time as Avacta do
https://aic.mhra.gov.uk/era/pdr.nsf/Search?SearchView&Query=/era/pdr.nsf/Search?SearchView&Query=[ManName]Contains(%22avacta%22)&SearchOrder=4
And if you want to look at possible competitors in the cancer and targeted treatment space, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals who are about to enter stage 2 clinical trials over summer with some promising albeit likely expensive cancer therapies, are bringing in under £100m in revenue, burning through cash so operating at a loss, but mcap of over $7bn. Probably cheap if things work out for them. Who knows where avacta could be in 18 - 24 months time
Porky must be close to triggering a tr1 with all these topups. I'm sticking with 4 figures for now, if the released test is at least as good as mologics , which isn't a terrible test even if the Avacta lot think so, then it could be a winner. I'm hoping azn or someone with clout are working on it with us. GM might grudgingly post an RNS with independent s&s over next few months to keep us in the loop.
Can't see any further acquisitions until dispute sorted, that's holding everything up.
They're the ones published so far, I don't know what the delay is in terms of emailing, registering online or faxing an EOI to it being published, but I'd suggest applying as close to the deadline as possible so as to not give competitors the heads up, so I imagine more will appear over the next week or two.
This is one of our competitors for the bid:
https://www.facebook.com/DonFossEnterprises/
Reseller of other crap tests most likely
Biomed I cant see reference to an antigen LFT, only elisa antibody and PCR but i imagine most news will be in korean
Mylan/Viatris - big company, recently merged, most likely competitor, again cant see any reference to a LFT
How much is the contract worth, half a mill?
This is a list of companies who have submitted an expression of interest
Mylan Laboratories Limited, a Viatris Company (india)
https://www.un.org/Depts/ptd/node/1031352
Don Foss Enterprises Pvt Ltd (Zimbabwe)
https://www.un.org/Depts/ptd/node/1031325
MiCo BioMed Co., Ltd. (Korea)
https://www.un.org/Depts/ptd/node/1031348
And Us
https://www.un.org/Depts/ptd/node/1031355
The SP will never recover until the dispute is resolved, no matter how many new tests are released. It's exasperated by the fact GM refuses to disclose any future order details nor breakdown existing orders in to market and volume. He himself said last year shareholders are not a priority, he's therefore only releasing the bare legal minimum.
Maybe he should try a different tact as it's obviously not working, but he doesn't seem like a guy who would admit he's wrong. Rather like some rampers on here.
So how come the directors can "believe this will add significant revenue" yet in other RNSs GM crippled the SP because he couldn't forecast revenues for 2nd half of year or said they'll be much lower?
Will be interesting to see the markets the test is released to first, esp for home approval as only the sovereign test will be given self test approval, Innova is having theirs revoked, and govt need a consistent accurate test. So I'm expecting FDA submission and approval in June, and whatever scheme the EU uses. Let's hope their sales staff fare better with LFT that they did with PCR outside of the UK.
Well, I know one thing. Our test won't be available in the middle aisels of Lidl. Maybe ODX should get in touch and see if they want their antibody tests?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.breakingnews.ie/amp/ireland/lidl-boss-defends-sale-of-antigen-tests-as-they-sell-out-over-weekend-1124299.html
If we weren't supplying hmg we wouldn't have gone via Mologic and instead waited 3 or 4 more weeks for ISO accreditation and done it ourselves, after all what is one month delay when we've suffered at least 6 months, it's like time is of the essence for some particular reason...
Also interesting that Al has been moaning at length of time it's taken the govt to get it's arse on gear, this contract was signed way back in Feb. Al would have known it was signed. We (or I) thought he was moaning about how long PD took, actually he was probably moaning at the time being taken from organising manufacturing to them approving our test, and forcing us to pivot from our planned saliva.
Al met with Boris on 27/08/2020 to discuss scaling up mass testing, along with mologic and a few other players, such as Novacyt, optigene, who were just in the PCR space at the time. 8 months later and we're only now approaching the finishing line.
Full list is
Oxford, Nanopore, Mologic, Novacyt, OptiGene, LGC, Quantum DX, Avacta, LumiraDX, AstraZeneca
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/958306/Rt-Hon-Boris-Johnson-MP-meetings-July-to-September-2020.csv/preview
None of those are now in the running imo, so I'm 99% certain the licenced tech is ours.