The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Will be interesting to see if Al has negotiated a flat rate licencing fee with UK govt, eg £500m regardless of numbers produced up to x years - lets hope they get the cash upfront though, or if we're charging per test, eg £1 in addition to the manufacturing contracts, or if GAD, ODX, BBI will pay us out of their fee. It would be much less money but part of me would find it amusing if ODX were given the full £347m contract only for us to charge a £300m licencing fee. £47m pays for a lot of plastic cassettes and glue, and is life changing for a company like ODX, which is what colin has promised.
I bet we don't get an RNS tomorrow (or at least an RNS related to our LFT, CE marking or ISO). Anyone wanna take me up on that?
To make it interesting loser has to buy 10 ODX shares, create a thread on their board called 'We love king Colin!' and offer to make Merchant a cuppa and tell him to put his feet up. Bit like Mother's Day. Except for a twat.
The min value of the ODX contract is £50m, max is £374m. Already near 2 months down so can take off £374/24 = £31m off max value. Production will be scaled up over time, so max value will never be reached, most likely is somewhere around half that, so say £150m.
£125m of that will cover raw materials, then £5m for wages. Govt loaned equipment so allow another £2m for insurance. That leaves £18m. Delivery, packaging and setting up infrastructure another £3m, leaving £15m profit. Allow £10m for faulty tests, loss, theft, misdelivery etc, leaves £5m profit. Paying for extra office space, storage, security doesn't come cheap, so another £2m. We're now left with just £3m, Colin and his mates will want a bonus totalling £2m. Add an extra million in expenditure for pies and you're left at £0 profit. Pies can't be claimed as a business expense so corporation tax of £200k, leaving them in debt.
Meanwhile twitter work experience lad gets crushed to death after unfortunate accident in warehouse when 3000 tonnes of unsold Abc tests topple on to him after he goes to check in on Colin who had locked himself in the gents.
ODX saying they're best in class is like liverpool fans saying they are champions. True for a very short amount of time.
I feel a bit sorry for ODX holders. Someone posted a link on their board yesterday, a year ago to the day the SP was 60p, and yesterday it was 66p at the time, no wonder they're so angry all the time.
Only the sovereign test will have home approval - Innova no longer, so who the hell are odx selling it to? Will Europe want our failed cast offs? Are they going after low income countries (so very low/none existant profit) Imagine having a stockpile of poor quality antibody tests no one wants, and then a stockpile of antigenLFT no one wants or can use at home, and being the equivalent of the nightingale hospital producing our test only if GAD, BBI and the like can't meet demand. Odx still think they're getting every penny of that £347m contract... Govt has form for pulling contracts early or changing terms. ODX need this contract to survive, for us being the govt test of choice is merely a nice to have.
I'd be panicking if I were an ODX Investor right now...
SP will go up when we know how good the test is. If its nearly as good as Avactas, it will fly. If it just matches surescreen, mologics, roche, siemens etc it will probably remain fairly static. Cant imagine it being as poor as innova so I'll discount that as a possibility
It's Innova, as part of the ERP
https://liverpoolexpress.co.uk/national-events-pilot-your-questions-answered/
The community testing there under the SMART program is still using Innova
https://www3.halton.gov.uk/Pages/health/smartfaq.aspx
I imagine that's the test they'll be using for the other major events lined up to the end of May.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-about-the-events-research-programme-erp-paving-the-way-for-larger-audiences-to-attend-sport-theatre-and-gigs-safely-this-summer
I presume no further than June as Innovas approval date or whatever it was ends then.
One day, soon, it shall be us
Bluelight- it's investing, the more a company promotes what they might achieve in 2, 5 10 years even they'll bring in investment, and can justify huge p/e ratio. Jam is why people invest. If they released a load of products to little fanfare, gave no indication of how well they're selling and to whom other than minimal legal requirements and a vague 50/50, also say they can't/won't predict future revenues, btw we're taking our biggest customer to court and may impact what has already been reported, the SP will die.
Looks like no news then between now and June. DHSC which is half our revenue is worth £4. So if everything resolved (but obv no new govt contracts), that puts nova back to £8 at best. At least GM had the courtesy to let holders gain opportunity value elsewhere for a month or so. Porky - it's not too late to move to Avacta for a month to make some of your losses back, maybe you'll see what all the fuss is about.
I missed the word saliva before when skim reading.
So the govt test will be AN and our own is a spit one? Does that mean the recent validation was done on saliva too then instead of nostril? Let's hope that's cleared up, if it's saliva with a 98% accuracy, that's astounding imo.
Not quite apples, as these are NP, CT <30
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445321001912
Shows how damn good our test is though. Surescreen is only 70% sensitivity, would probably be far lower if it just tickled the nostrils. I don't think the market has realised how bad the other leading tests are, and why ours is the only one in the world that is accurate, cost effective, scalable, suitable for general public to do (read: idiot proof), fine for parents to use on young children and can be easily adapted for future strains.
You can be sure this news would have landed on the desk of every LFT producing pharma's CEO by the morning, and they'll be googling avacta if they haven't already. Als inbox could be quite full by 8.00am tomorrow.
Agree the only way to mass test is with LFT and avacta will be huge in comparison to Nova one day, but there is still a market for PCR, especially one that seemingly picks up every major variant. I'm down 15% on nova from once being 100% up, but I've yet to find anyone who thinks a company with over £100m cash in the bank and earning £35m a quarter with up to 80% profit margin excluding DHSC orders are worth way under £300m. I'm sure the dispute will be resolved over the coming months. GM is even more vague than AS.