Member Info for Joshholdforgold

Jimbo - The real driver is when will the company run out of money?

They will need to borrow or hold a placing in Q2 of 2022 if they have not commercialised at least one product by then.

I believe that Susy could sell 201 and 301 tomorrow however getting a good deal is taking time.

If there is no deal in place by Christmas, I expect the market will start to get nervous.

We are exceptionally undervalued for 3 viable drugs, 2 of which are in clinical phase.

Technical chart analysis is showing a strong level of support at 25.30. I think we are unlikely to drop below that point unless the presentation is an absolute car crash.

Dracula - I agree that if there is to be a licence or JV announcement it will be rns’d at 7 am tomorrow.

Without an RNS all Suzy can talk about is expectations and plans.

Hi Jimbo,

You are correct that information should be disclosed immediately, unless the details are protected by a non disclosure agreement.

It is possible that VAL may have been constrained by an NDA while negotiations were ongoing. They would have know the end date of that NDA and been able to arrange a presentation accordingly.

Fingers crossed for tomorrow!

Come on Big Suze show us the goods!

201 - Precision medicine is future. I honestly believe that our small targeted approach will have wet the appetite of some major pharma.

301 - This is with Takeda (IMHO) who will pay handsomely. Read my post from yesterday to see my rationale.

401 - as a repurposed drug has the quickest route to market and hence could be the easiest to sell. Albeit not at the anything like price of the other two.

These processes take time and I am relieved that Suzy hasn’t jumped straight into bed with the first offer. I like to think this time has been used to maximise shareholder value.

All that said, we must now get one over the line. I would like to see 401 go first via a deal which would see us into a cash position to negotiate maximum value for 201 and 301. With 6-9 months of cash in the bank, now is the time. Leave it much longer and we could become viewed as desperate.

Good luck all long term holders. May we all wake up to a thumping rns tomorrow followed by an inspiring presentation.

Correction: The brand names given are other uses of leuprorelin acetate. The article I picked that from is poorly worded. The key point remains. Leuprorelin acetate for the treatment of endometriosis is now out of patent.

I believe that the Japanese Pharma is Takeda. This is my own personal opinion, concluded from information found in the public domain.

There are only a limited number of 'Global Japanese Pharma' who could be relied upon by VAL to be able to bring a drug to market from pre-clincal stage. I believe that the pharma in question will have some company history in the field of endometriosis.

Likely contenders:

Mitsubishi Tanabe - Has just last month begun a Phase 3 trial of its own endometriosis hormone therapy.
Daiichi Sankyo - No history in field.
Chugai - Has just completed positive P1.
Astellas - Completed statistically significant P2 in 2019.
Otsuka - No history in field.

Tadeka -

Tadeka sell a drug called leuprorelin acetate under the brand name leuplin as a treatment for endometriosis. The patent for this specific indication was filed by Takeda in July 1992 and granted in 1994. Since the expiration of the 20 year patent protection, leuprorelin acetate has become available for treatment of endometriosis under the the brand names: Camcevi (Foresee Pharmaceuticals), LeuProMaxx (Baxter/Teva) and Memryte (Curaxis).

Takeda was granted a patent for the use of Leuplin to treat prostate cancer in 2015. Given that VAL301 is a reformulation of VAL201, a prostate cancer treatment, the link between the two indications will not be lost on Takeda.

Takeda have both the research pedigree and commercial need for VAL301. Should a licencing deal be struck with Takeda, the largest Pharma in Japan, then not only will it do wonders for our share price, but provide validation and credibility transferable to other products.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/valirx-plc/register-investor

For easy access.

Starbright - You do make a compelling argument. I must confess to having only invested in Biotech stocks for the last 2 years so certainly do not claim to be an ultimate authority.

My one relevant experience however comes from Synairgen, which I have held shares in from a MCAP of c£20m. At that Mcap SNG had multiple institutional investors and UHNW investors who specialized in small cap biotechs.
Shares were owned by The Woodford fund, Leonard Licht, Acacia to name but a few. These some of shares may have been acquired through a placing but holdings were increasing and decreasing on the open market too.

While the MCAP was around £100m some relatively major funds purchased. Polar Capital has purchased 11% (now down to 8%) on the open market.

Should a good deal for VAL201 be secured and MCAP of c£50m be achieved, I think it is very possible that we could pick up a couple of funds. It would be this which would secure the new valuation and prevent a regression as seen on previous spikes.

Once the company has a pipeline of revenue, a new generation of investor will take note.

VAL301 is a repurposed formulation of VAL201 to target endometriosis (The growth of tissue similar to that of the uterus on the ovaries, bowel and pelvis lining commonly causing pain and infertility).

The current standard of care for endometriosis is a combination of painkillers, non-targeted hormone therapy and surgery. The non precision hormone therapy relies on the suppression of oestrogen production, which comes with a significant array of undesirable side effects including loss of bone density and fertility.

Pre-clinical studies carried out by VAL indicate that endometrial lesions were reduced by up to 50% and it is anticipated that the treatment would work without affecting fertility or bone density due to the targeted method of action.

Should this level of efficacy be demonstrated without side effects in human trials, then VAL301 has the potential to become the new standard of care for endometriosis. VAL301 could again prove revolutionary in its market.

17 months ago VAL entered into a collaborations agreement with an undisclosed major Japanese Pharma. While it is possible that the original investigations were paused to focus resources on COVID research, I am sure this is now well under way. In vitro studies, by a well resourced pharma can move pretty quickly. This could surprise us all by being the first deal over the line. Watch this space!

Starbright - If Cenkos can bring in investment from institutions for a placing, I see no reason why it shouldn’t be able to convince those same analysts/institutions to take long positions while the company does not need a placing.

I mentioned above that 55% of patients showed no advancement in disease while receiving VAL201 on the trial.

I had not realised at the time that the patients were given the treatment for between 18-26 weeks.

VAL201 prevented any progression of the disease for 4-6 months in over half the patients.

Thanks Porky!

Feel free to use anything I post anywhere you think might be useful. I now follow you on Twitter. Not that I really use it. (@Joshblakemore)

Stay tuned for the next chapter - Understanding Val 301…..

Having increased my position this morning, I thought I would spend some time getting to know VALs flagship product and its competitors a little better.

The current first-line treatment for prostate cancer is a combination of radiotherapy, radical surgery and hormone therapy however, there are currently 4 only treatments approved by the FDA for treatment of castration resistant prostate cancer. Of these treatments, the best and current standard of care for CRPC extends life expectancy by a mere 4 month while subjecting the patient to a highly undesirable side effects.

Val is at the forefront of the development of SRC Inhibitors as a means of preventing progression of disease. There are numerous other drugs in pre-clinical and early stage trials, testing different means of SRC kinase inhibition and whether they might provide a superior or complementary mode of treatment to those currently approved.

VAL is notably superior as it does not cause androgen deprivation and its associated side effects due to its unique and highly targeted method. This is critical to the patients quality of life as well as their general wellness.

The top line data from the Phase 1/2 trial found that 55% of patients showed no progression of disease while on the trial. While the size of the trial obviously limits the conclusions which can be drawn, if VAL201 were to be able to prevent the progression of disease, without major side effects in over half of patients for a sustained period of time, then it is quite simply a game changer.

It is up to Suzy now to negotiate a licence or JV which suitably values its potential and sees it on the front line prolonging and hopefully saving lives.

With a Mcap of just under £50m it is worth dissecting the major sources revenue available to get a feel for whether the share price should go up or down.

Assumptions:

Enterprise Value = 12x gross profit for non-covid related revenue.

Enterprise Value = 6x gross profit for covid related revenue.

Non covid revenue = £3.5m H1 2021
FY2021 Rev = £7m
Gross Profit Margin 40%
GP = £2.7m
Factor x12

EV=£32.4m

Biosure Antibody test revenue = £33 x margin x sales
Gross profit margin (est.) 40%
Sales (est.) =500,000/year
GP = £6.6m
Factor x6

EV=£39.6m

Now my projections for the lateral flow test sales relies on my firm belief that AVCT will in the next few weeks receive Home Ise Authorisation for their best in class test. Or failing that, a manufacturing deal with an alternate company be agreed. Let’s assume we supply £4m LFTs pcm to AVCT (AVCT have said they hope to produce 30m pcm)

AVCT test revenue = £5 x margin x sales
Gross profit margin (est.) 20%
Sales (est.) = 48m/year
GP = £46m
Factor x6

EV=£276m

Without any provision for sales of Abingdon’s own covid products we reach a the following valuations:

Without AVCT sales:
£72m = £0.78 per share

With AVCT sales:
£348 = £3.70 per share

I can only conclude that at £0.50p a share there is a real opportunity for significant growth.

While our long term outlook is dependent on Suzy’s ability to secure lucrative JVs (which I am confident she will achieve) our short term share price action looks to be driven my technical factors.

Our last rise to 31p saw VAL break out from the year long downward trend. This reversal was confirmed when the previous resistance at 25.5p formed a new support level.

The 50ma looks likely to ‘golden cross’ the 200ma either tomorrow or Monday. This will add a another strong buy signal. I expect us to test the upper line of the new channel at 36p.

The contents of the investor presentation will the determine what happens next. Should the market be satisfied with an update, I would expect the rising channel to hold. Of course a licensing deal/JV would cause a significant re-rate.

ATB Josh

As it was pointed out to me that odx also had a similar late afternoon rise, that probably rules out the AVCT leak.

But, we have major untapped LFT manufacturing capacity and our government has announced that we have a shortage of LFTs.

When the glove fits. Good luck all LTH!

Show me the money!

Thanks Muck

You seemed to have a good understanding of the Medusa/AVCT/Abdx tie up.

Are you expecting abdx to come on board only for component manufacture following the HUA of Avct’s LFA or do you think they could already be producing for use in a clinical setting? As Myles McNalty seems to imply?

Thanks I’m advance?

As ABDX’s talisman for the last while, you deserve to be right and do well from tomorrow!

Avacta have been promising to reveal manufacturing capacity of 5m units per month.
If the rns lands, with numbers, this could be huge for abdx.
Genuinely cannot wait for 7 am tomorrow.

Jolly did you get back in? In the 30s?