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I know 3 people who have invested in VAL this week.
Yes they invested because of the possibility of a licencing deal and the great presentation by Suzy and Co, however, had I not suggested it was worth looking into, they probably would never have thought to watch the presentation or possibly even heard of VAL.
So I disagree, we as shareholders can usefully raise the profile of VAL by encouraging people to look into the company and watch the latest investor presentation.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/natalia-sanz-dawson-211336123_life-science-innovation-activity-6849314427292942338-An8L
It’s great to see the PR cogs starting to turn. Our public profile is definitely beginning to increase!
For 201, 301 and 401…..
Bonkers - you are missing the key point. We are selling the licence not appealing for a JV funder.
Any payments we receive will go straight on the bottom line!
41.25 are buys too. (Me)
https://twitter.com/zakstraderscafe/status/1443559058598936581?s=21
With oncology phase 1 drugs having an average up front payment of 17m USD and total average total milestone payments of 198m USD, we get a feel for the scope of the deal on the verge of being signed.
I personally believe we will do a little better than average given that we are believed to be an efficacious and side effects free treatment for one of the big name cancers.
Let’s suppose that we receive £10m up front and a deal with milestones adding up to £250m plus 7% royalty post commercialisation.
The probability of a promising phase 1 drug making it to market is 15% on average. Then ignoring any contribution for royalties you might expect to see half the 15% of £240m plus the £10m upfront in the immediate value. = £28.2m
Then add say £5m for potential lifetime royalties.
VAL 201 deal value (as part of current mcap) = £33.2m
Should 301 be valued similarly, and 401 at half the price plus say £5-10m for other enterprise value, then this company is worth £93m.
That’s just under £1.50 a share.
Which makes this a 4 bagger from herein the next 6-12 months.
‘In terms of development stage, drug licensing deal volume has been largest at the discovery stage in recent years, and that continued to be true in 2020 (Fig. 2). What was surprising in 2020 was the volume of activity around drugs in phase 1 of clinical development, with nearly twice as many phase 1 drug licensing deals signed in 2020 compared with 2019 (Biopharma Dealmakers B2–4, March 2020). Drugs in phase 1 achieved the highest average deal values ($842 million) and average upfront payments ($263 million) in 2020, where disclosed; however, the averages are inflated by the AstraZeneca/Daiichi Sankyo pact, which was the largest drug licensing deal in 2020, as discussed earlier. Drugs in phase 1 do not normally achieve such high price tags, but this deal follows a very successful collaboration between the two companies on trastuzumab deruxtecan, an ADC that was then in phase 2 and went on to demonstrate clinical success, gain regulatory approval, and is predicted to be a blockbuster by 2024, according to Clarivate. Removing the AstraZeneca/Daiichi Sankyo deal from the 2020 averages, phase 1 drugs achieved the lowest average upfront payments ($17 million) and total potential deal value ($198 million) in 2020, with the highest upfront payments achieved in the later stages of drug development and the highest total deal potential coming in the early discovery and preclinical stages, though those deals will be subject to numerous milestones (Fig. 2).
Oncology drug licensing values in 2020 by development phase
Fig. 2 | Oncology drug licensing values in 2020 by development phase. Development phase refers to the furthest status of any asset included in the deal at deal start. The greatest volume of transactions occurs at discovery stage, and the majority of these are for drug discovery platforms. The highest average deal values were achieved by assets in phase 1, where disclosed. Data are from Cortellis Deals Intelligence from Clarivate’
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d43747-021-00024-y
You might be right. I may have put 2 and 2 together and got 5.
The review panel is meeting today. We should hear very soon.
https://twitter.com/joshblakemore8/status/1443518990912004097?s=21
I agree that this is an indication of their expectations of success. If they were nervous about data from p3 they would raise before results.
Pork's I am now following you but can't DM you as it think your settings are programmed to only allow messages from people you follow. Twitter: @Joshblakemore8
2.32 activ progression announced
As a relative recent addition, I cannot believe how fortunate I am to have got in at into VAL at the right time.
Clear vision for the company, tangible revenue from a licence agreement and so much room for share price growth.
There is so much more to come in the short and medium terms. Great buy.
GLA
I agree. 41p seems to be the top of the rising channel from 2020.
I fully expect us to test it this week.
https://twitter.com/joshblakemore8/status/1443104945025261568?s=21
Dumbpunter - I can't tell if your stupid or been told to put out an agenda. Or both.
I am genuinely excited for what today brings.
Roll on 7am.
I have seen instances where they are clearly trading support and resistance lines.
NCYT is trades really clearly between horizontal resistances and support driven by algos (you can have r&s rising abs falling channels too).
I would guess that the successful ones have other factors such as Fibonacci expansion and RSI programmed in.
The algos don’t seem to bother on here. I would guess that the spread is too wide and not enough volume.
The 150 people who died of covid in the uk yesterday are really looking forward to getting back to normal……