Member Info for Jonah58

Happy, the project is at the site of a previous mining operation so there will be road access, power and water. In the RNS the capex for four modules is given as $50M. Four modules at $6M each leaves about $25M for other cost’s including, I presume, installation and connection to infrastructure.

Yes. You win. Jonah second (quite a long way back); the rest of a small field cantered in behind.

I have been trying to digest BTs posts from today and yesterday. What he seems to be saying is that Jubilee raised money because it was short of cash, and it did it quickly (accelerated book build) because we needed it soon. This is the insight we all so desperately needed, and I am overwhelmed with admiration for his perspicacity and drawing it to our attention.

If I had not been so dense, I might have twigged from Leon's recent presentations (have you listened to them,BT?) in which he said we needed more money because we had spent it all - $90,000,000 + on capital projects over three years, mainly from cash flow; cash flow which will now not be needed for further projects barring another chrome module in SA. He also admitted we needed the cash quickly, to optimise the startup of the overburden rock project.

Platinum, Palladium are up, copper is maintaining its gains as is chrome. What are we going to do with all this cash flow now? Did I hear the words share buyback, investor distribution, or was I just imagining things as usual?

Referring to the middle one of your 2 things, Jubilee is well aware of the problems of recovering metals from smelter waste. Over two years ago Leon referred to the 'glass' like quality of this material consequent on smelted silicates, and highlighted the challenge. This is the incentive to team up with Draslovka, and I am sure, as you say, it has all become very interesting. We are told recoveries using GlyLeach have exceeded expectations but we are awaiting the results of bulk trials.

Not much new Shareswatter, I agree. Maybe a bit more about project M and some reassurance that Roan will be producing in accordance with guidance for H2.

With regard to the raise, we won’t have given away 8% of the company if the money adds sufficient value. We should find out soon enough.

Nice find Seis. He is not the only one predicting a shortage of platinum. With shafts being put on care and maintenance, flexibility to respond to increasing demand will be reduced.

On another note, I recall in 2016, Colin and Leon getting quite excited about our excursions into what was then called Hernic. This prompted a minor rash of posts from autocorrect-enabled punters asking them what plans they had for their hernias. There was no reply from the BoD, so I posted a fictitious one based on a wonderful anaphora which will be familiar to some here. It's out of date now (anyone remember Sharetrooper?), there was no copper (Homey will say there still isn't), and the Smokey Hills fiasco was still fresh in the mind. But (!) everything has been so miserable here for a while that I make no apology for reposting it in the forlorn hope that it might lighten the atmosphere a tad.

"Just back from a break and was disappointed to see no response to the very reasonable request for a hernia update. So I e-mailed the BoD and got a very prompt reply. I am not too sure what to make of it, but I have just cut and pasted it. Happy Christmas to everyone who has contributed here in 2023."

Hernia update.

‘For we are under the same accusation with Sharetrooper, and the regulators of AIM sayeth "They are besides themselves".

For We will consider our private investor Jonah:-

For at the first glance of glory in the east he cougheth, and a loop of ileum creepeth like a criminal down his inguinal canal.

For he rejoiceth with rapture at the reducibility of the rupture.

For as the sun riseth over the eastern limb he is blest in his varied movements whence in sprightly spirals he separateth himself.

For as the sun sets over the eastern limb, he riseth to the surface on a bubble.

For he knoweth not his guts from his nuts.

For in his morning orizons he logs in to LSE and gives thanks that the Sp has fallen less than 2%.

For he laments that he can no longer smelt in the veldt.

For we are possessed of a private investor of surpassing foolishness, yet he is neither a ramper nor a deramper.

For he fears his rupture with tangulate and strangulate.

For he toilest back and forth in the Smokey Hills, at the open mineshaft, one hand dicing for a piece of platinum.

For he is whale food and spouteth drivel

.

For he wants not more warrants.

For he giveth praise " Dilakong merrily on high".

For he is a Smartar*e.

For he can weep.’

Of course it does depend on the average grade of the Waste Rock resource, but, for clarity and from what we have been told we can expect a 50 Kt per month (600 Kt per year) module to cost about £6 M (maybe a bit less with economies of scale) and produce about 5,000 tonnes of copper per year. Scaling that by four gives:

Tonnes of waste processed per year 2,400,000

Capital cost. £24 M

Copper produced per year 20,000 tonnes.

Margin per tonne of copper $4000 (conservative)

Income: $80,000,000

Attributable to JLP (at least 30%) $24,000,000

Payback time. 1 year. (we are not forking out the capex, but I think I read that IRH will be recoupnig some of their capex from the SPV during the early part of the project).

Project duration: 145 years!

Double the figures for 8 modules (halve the duration to a measly 72 years).

I agree with the opacity, Butter. Perhaps the details of the deal are yet to be thrashed out so the 'at least' 30% is a true statement about the current state of affairs.

I disagree that Leon sounded desperate. He sounded to me like a school boy who had just got an electric train, a bicycle and a couple of gerbils for Christmas.

I paid 5.5p for my top up. Not a premium.

Interesting question, Fishy. We won't hear anything before the EGM, I suppose, but watch out for a TR1 after.

Dorf - I think it goes further. We are processing project M material now and have been for a while. We must be using the same technology as the proposed modules. They work. The only question is the grade of the Waste Rock feed, and the economics of the whole operation in relation to the price of copper. Currently this looks very favourable.

I don't think any of us view the Sunday Roast as more than an orchestrated exercise in mutual back-scratching, so I don't give it too much attention. But, questions were asked about timescales, which apparently is what the raise is all about - so us diluted punters will be eager to see commissioning of the first Waste Rock project module by September 2024 and ask questions if it isn't.

Interesting that "several" green funds wanted to participate in the equity raise. The term 'green copper' is entereing into the ESG vocabulary and maybe we will hear it more often as we move forwards.

3card. That's why Balanced and I topped up at 5.5. It's not going to drop 19%. That's just a knee-jerk reaction IMHO.

On a more interesting (I hope) note, I have a question for Seis/Mickie/anyone else who has an opinion. The waste rock deal must have been quite long in the making. We would certainly have been in negotiations with IRH long before they were announced as the preferred bidders for Mopani. Yet it seems such a coincidence that they got the nod. How would our deal with IRH look now if Zijin were in charge of Mopani? It's almost as if we knew that IRH was the heir apparent. If so, who told us?

Zambia is rejigging its copper industry. It seems to me that Jubilee is an admittedly small, but still important, part of a more general plan which goes right to the top.

Some strangely emotional language being used today about a small equity raise aimed at speeding up the roll out of the copper modules and coping with the increased volume of material. Are you sure you are in the right place? The AIM kitchen is usually hot - maybe a tracker fund would suit better, or something like Troy Trojan?

Also note the 'I told you so' brigade is in full flow! We've seen all this before. What matters is does this add any value or not. I guess we will find out within 6 to 12 months.

Ditto Balanced.

As you point out, HD, it's nice to see a little rally in the PGM basket price, but it's too early to expect much of a response in the Sp. Palladium is nearly back to what it was in October and platinum is still down 6% on the year. Rhodium stable. It will be interesting to see if this modest recovery is a knee jerk response to interest rates holding firm or something more solid reflecting an underlying shift in the supply demand ratio.

Good points, Seis and 3Card. There is no doubt at all that other companies will come into the market with similar technology, so I expect a flurry of news over the next 18 months related to waste/tailings in Zambia, DRC and maybe further afield.

We don't need to be ultra greedy - there's so much of the stuff to go round that we could never process it all. Also, if a really big company with very deep pockets wanted to do this seriously, would you choose to invest for two or three years reinventing the wheel, or might it just be simpler to buy JLP?

There was a point 8, Frog, but I can't for the life of me remember what it was. I also note that for some reason my keyboard refused to accept any upper case letters in that post and the algorithm did not like my vernacular for a cigarette. Much to ponder on.

Ah, the dreaded asterisks = b ol l o c k i n g

just back from a few blissful days with no internet access and came across this massive rns, a host of fascinating discussion and a few carping posts from individuals who have really become rather peripheral now.

when you see something almost too good to be true, you naturally look for the catch. is it that:-

1. we have not shown we can process low grade weathered oxide ores (as postulated by the domestic joker)? no. we are processing project m ore at sable, and have been for a while. small volumes, i accept, but profitably.

2. we can process the stuff, but cannot scale it up economically? no. we have proved we can do this with our similar chrome operations.

3. sable is a flop,failure, waste of money, useless (as postulated by brighteyes)? no. without sable we would not have shown we can get copper out of low grade ore in the first place and the whole zambian operation would have fizzled out. sable is ready for increased feed and runs the risk of being swamped. it is ready to produce cobalt hydroxide concentrate when/if market conditions improve.

4. the grades in the waste rock project are overstated. the 1.5% cu are just islets in an ocean of pointless rubble? i don't know, but we have been working on this for 4 years and irh are backing it. anyway, we will have a better handle on this within 60 days.

5. that there might be some hidden legal shennanigans, disputed ownership, historic claims (a situation not unknown to readers of the arc board)? seems unlikely. we have a 70 day cooling off period.

6. 30% is too little? *** packet calculations suggest even at 30%, revenue will be between 30 and 45 million dollars - more if price of cu follows expectations (not to mention 100% revenue from project m and roan). also, as i read it, jlp will be paid by the special vehicle to run the oufit - extra income.

7. that leon has overshot the mark? clearly not. interesting that in the podcast he emphasised the importance he attaches to this deal demonstarting to the market what we can do in a partnership. a slight change in emphasis, i feel, in which we take on a greater consultancy role. more of the same sort to follow.

9. that nobody thinks the timescale achievable? we have only a year to wait for an answer.

10. that the price of copper will crash/ebola virus/military coup/china invades taiwan/etc/etc? all out of our control.

i find it difficult to credit the mean spirited, self centred, grossly unseasonal, and disingenuous nature of some recent posts.

we have just bought about 3 million tonnes of copper for $0.00. surely time for the bulls and bears to hold hands and frollick along to stargates ********** bands. good tidings, i say.

So, it goes to the bidder with the deepest pockets and the least mining credentials. Let’s see how we get on with them.