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There is not silence on this board, just a dirth of interesting threads in the last couple of weeks.
Discounting the irrelevant 'down, down, down, dog of a share, lol, ha ha ha' posts (and equally childish 'wow! 80p by end of month choo choo choo posts) and also pathetic attempts at manipulation (viz Slater selling/TR1 stuff, which tells us all we want to know about the poster's understanding of the stock market and his agenda), there have been other negative offerings backed up with factual information. But I think there is a problem with these in that only the information that supports the argument is presented - in other words a lack of balance.
An example is the constant reference to a massive drop in earnings per share last year compared to the year before. This is undeniably true. One problem here is the unprecedented spike in the price of palladium and rhodium in 2021. Statisticians would regard these price points as being 'outliers' when analysing price trends. Allowing for this, the Sp drop is not so marked and corresponds fairly well to a regression line constructed from the data Seis has posted. Other factors are at play, of course. Headwinds include inflation, war, lockdown in China, global recession, fuel costs, and a consequent general exodus from high risk investments. Add to this the disappointment of a 6 month delay in copper production, the dumping of warrants and power issues in SA and the slide is easy to understand. We do not need to invoke fundamental problems with our company or its management. On a positive note, Dorfan has highlighted the cushioning effect of the weak rand on our sales which are made in dollars. As a previous head of a highly successful metals outfit in SA his posts command our respect.
Two other posts casual passers by may have noticed refer to directors selling shares and copper grades in our dumps being lower than expected. Just to point out that the latest RNS on director share dealing is the purchase of shares by LC and Ollie. The dumps have been drilled. I cannot put my finger on a JORC compliant report, but the Cu grades are roughly equivalent to those some miners are now commercially extracting - the only difference being that someone else has already dug ours up for us.
A while back there was a gloomy poster here called Kitchens. He rejoiced in the Sp drop from 19p to around 3p. His rhetoric was just the same as some other posters around today. I ignored his advice and bought a shedload, 2/3 of which I sold at 18.5p - the single best investment I have ever made on the stock exchange. And now, I can hardly believe it, , I've got an opportunity to do it all over again!
I have no grouse with BT. It was he who reminded me that the Sp of companies goes up and down (thanks for that insight). If he has made good money shorting this share, then 'well done'. I expect to do the same going long.
Two other
"Should have taken 16p when I said then instead of ramping then filtering me when it went wrong lol"
Probably inadvisable to make any tade on anyones advice on these boards, to be honest. It's a too easy, when posting messages like this, to have a selective memory. Just as an example, I'm happy I did not take your advice when you posted this (I would b 60% down by now)
re:HUM. Sp 22p. (Having crashed from 42p over the previous six months )
Relax (!)
"This is a 100k producer, profitable, has depreciating liabilities, with money in the bank and gold in reserve.
Cash and gold is circa 15% of total mcap, this is cheap and it keeps getting cheaper.
AISC guidance is 1350 for the year but with production weighted towards the second half, so even if it's 1500 for Q1 with an average pog of 1800, that still 300 bucks or 8.75 million USD earnings on top of the cash and gold at hand, i think we'll be okay."
Currently, I would say JLP is cheap, and it keeps getting cheaper; but, on balancne, my advice is just not to give (or take) advice!
Nice to see the protocol submitted. I guess the FDA will approve, seeing as how we have worked quite closely with the agency to get this far. Then the actual protocol will be made public. I am looking forward to that, so we can have a good look at timings, entry criteria and end points.
I am aware of the document you reference. The situation at Kabwe is cokplex with, as you point out, human rights involvement, potential legal action against Anglo, the government of Zambia, input from the World Bank and a host of other agencies with fingers in the pie.
But that is not the point. Your post seemed to suggest there is a problem with the mining license at Kabwe. That it was not granted or revoked. That is simply wrong. I'm sorry if my being picky irritaes you. I can't help it!
https://www.investegate.co.uk/jubilee-metals-group--jlp-/rns/kabwe-mining-licence-renewed---board-appointment/202009141230029244Y/
So, if we simply adhere to the facts rather than the ether, the mining licence currently has about another eight years to run. I believe CB was on the BMR board when we were a shareholder, but I think it is disingenuous to tar our current board with BMR's brush!
Can anyone enlighten me about the nature of the power problem? I had assumed it was related to unseasonal low levels of water in lake Kariba (which, I agree could have been factored into planning) but LC seemed to imply in the presentation that the problem was a totally unpredictable political one - presumably with Zimbabwe. If this was unprecedented it might be a bit harsh to berate our board for not having made allowances for it.
You make some very well informed points Seis. The cost of the chrome concentrator on the eastern limb came as a pleasant surprise. Obviously, until the issue of a PGM plant in the east is sorted this will only be a small step forward, but remeber that our transport costs for eastern limb material are very high and impact on our unit cost for pgm production. The transport of a concentrate will reduce that significantly so the eastern limb chrome plant will start paying its way immediately.
Happy to have a year end price competition this year again Bushy. I came second last year (can't remember who won). But we both know it's just a bit of fun - wild guesswork with precious little substance. I'll go for 18.76p with a much happier figure calendar year end 2024.
These are a few points I've taken away from the presentation.
1. Nice to see a degree of humility from Ollie. Hope this is contagious
2. Real progress on chrome facility on Eastern limb. Funding from cash flow. Progress expected this calendar year.
3. If load shedding in SA improves, we will improve on predicted PGM production figures. Will probably also use Eland JV facility to some extent.
4. Firming of Zn and PB prices raise possibility of processing Kabwe. Watching this.
5. 30% of our chrome production stands to benefit us as chrome prices rise.
6. Roan expansion may entail some reduction in output, but not total shutdown. This is already factored into predicted output for year end.
7. Grades at Roan are as expected (there was a rumour on here that grades might be lower.)
8. We are a front runner for Mufulira sl a g dump.
9. In contact with big mining houses re their waste.
10. He did not rule out issue of equity explicitly.
11. Nothing fundamentally wrong with our operations.
12. Sp slide as much to do with commodity prices, global economics and risk averseness as anything else, but admission that they should have been more upfront re delays at Roan.
I have no worries that the company is set to move on and do well. My major concern is with the global situation and especially China. Western sanctions against Chinese companies would hit us hard. I'm not buying more, even at this price, because of that but am happy to ride out the bumps with what remains of my investment here.
Yes! I note Cecilia Lamaswala was also a director of Blue Square. She gave the same address as a vicar (presumably her husband) who was also a director, though they both subsequently resigned. (It's totally irrelevant, but my grandfather was vicar of Walthamstow.)
Blue Star Capital does not have a Lamaswala on their board, and seem to operate mainly in DRC. Where are they going to get $300M from? It's a minefield!