Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
Just a couple of points, BT.
1. The calendar years is the closed interval [0000hrs Jan1,2400hrs Dec31]. We have more than 25% of the year to go.
2. You didn't predict 6.5p EOY (cut and paste below)
Precision is everything.
"Jonah,
How about this for guess work then
20 X PE at current sp
30M dollars short for roan
Recoverable copper grade only 0.2%
Placing for 20 million quid to hit by year end
Short term trading high of 9.15-9.40 (make sure you sell this time)
Year end target 5.5p
Let's see if I'm lucky"
Eastern limb, western chrome parts one and two and front end of Roan already funded. There is a recent thread suggesting that northern copper is awaiting approval from one (or more) banks. Here is the original link (posted by Iluvise68).
https://slaterinvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Slater-Growth-Fund-Interim-Report-2023-Final.pdf
I think it’s unlikely we’ll get a placing to fund currently planned capex, BT. None of the signals point that way. The last major placing we had was to fund Platcro (Windsor) when we needed to grasp the opportunity quickly. This is proving to be very profitable. If a similar opportunity arises in Zambia, I would not rule out another placement and would support it.
I suspect you are right, Seis. It certainly looks as though this is being bank financed rather than through equity. You mentioned two new concentrators. I was under the impression that, with the improved front end at Roan, we will now need only one further concentrator (for the tailings we have in the bag so far!).
Thanks gotreal. As I said, I have had other things on my mind and am not up to date. ERG have Chinese partners, so maybe they are just undertaking to get the ball rolling again. I think they went into care and maintenance due to economic reasons, when additional taxes were imposed on the import of feed materials from the DRC, where ERG have a significant presence (including a tailings reclamation project). The Chambishi refinery is particularly set up for cobalt, though its copper is very high quality too and trades on LME. If feed material availability is an ongoing problem then there must be opportunities for a JV with Jubilee. Just thinking aloud really.
Alangins, once Jubilee get the Northern copper/cobalt strategy up and running we will need to process the concentrate to produce pure metal. The options are to leach and electrowin and/or smelt. Either we just sell on our concentrate (not part of the master plan IMO), build a new refinery like Sable (hugely expensive), or re-furbish an existing plant. Chambishi was on care and maintenance, and hence a potential target.
I am not too sure what to make of this notice. I must have taken my eye off the ball, as I was under the impression that Chambishi was still under the wing of ERG and its future was still the subject of an unresolved unpaid tax issue, though the Zambian minister of mines has hinted that the resolution is nearly sorted.
I don’t think anyone on this board is suggesting we are interested directly in the sale of Mopani. That is a mine whilst we are an opportunistic scavenger - symbiote at best. Our interest is indirect. We are already heavily invested in the waste dumps round Kitwe and the Mufulira dumps look very tasty. Fascinating times just round the corner!
Nice find Seis. I do wonder if he is being a bit hyper-enthusiastic. There is an earlier comment about ARCM which seems to be hugely price sensitive but is not associated with any RNS from Arc so far. Anyway, as a politician he surely knows that he will have to account for what he says so, like you, I am anticipating news from Chambishi soon, be it positive or otherwise.
Thanks Seis. As you say, it is clear that the expanded Roan concentrator with its 60% ROM 2% Cu feed is going to produce more than Sable can cope with and we won’t be refurbishing a refinery any time soon.
Despite frustration with the hold ups to progress in the north, there is an upside as we now approach a period of significant income/revenue (yes, both!) generation. Leon is still talking about 25K tonnes of Cu by 2025, but the current delay gives time to refill the coffers and get the pilot study sorted.
As I see it, the downside to the current model is the transport of concentrate from Roan to Sable. It’s quite a long way and in the rainy season road conditions deteriorate.
It's important to try and stick to facts:
"You have Siesnev who thinks thinks JLP are a chrome producer rather than a toll processor and doesn't know the difference between earnings and revenue."
The facts are that we are both a toll processor and chrome producer. We were once exclusively a toll processor. The Windsor deal enabled a greater exposure to chrome prices for a small amount of our output. The latest deal greatly increases our chrome production. OK, we don't mine the ore, bu what we produce is a chrome concentrate whose value to us depends on market price - this is not the fixed price 'toll processor' model. By the look of it, within 12 months this production will be doubling too. Whatever form of words you choose to use, we are becoming a major player in the chrome market.
thanks, prof.
i note new whi communication. just re-iterates the rns.
https://*********************/companies/uk/industrial-metals-nonferrous/jubilee-metals-group-plc/research/whireland/jubilee-metals-jlp-project-updates-for-south-africa-and-zambia/41_2023082103184349827/70af74ed-8e36-4b21-9b31-6808a2254792
Yes Dorf. It looks a bargain at this price.
Good progress with the new chrome deals, though we don’t know exactly how the profits will be split, especially with regard to the PGMs. I’d have liked a comment at least re the eastern limb facility.
The new ROM ore deal for Roan seems quite a big development. Presumably we are talking about artisan mining here. 6 years of 2% ore looks very tasty. Obviously the devil will be in the details. Over to you, Ricus.
Is this the first we have heard about a half-way house pilot plant for the northern stray? I suppose it makes sense and is something constructive to do while the protracted negotiations grind to a conclusion!
No, Frog. As far as I can tell there was just a parting of the ways.
I’ve checked out Grimbeek’s Twitter (X) account. He describes himself as a traveler and futurist. His last post was some time ago and, I have to say, a tad enigmatic. I’ve cut and pasted it below for your edification.
Bydgfdgggdgxjcxcxzgxdhxnx(8.. zdryzzdfxvvjhgfsthxz!!?!’jkcfghvxfgffgffzssdfcxgjbvvhhjhhggfgygfgfdfzxzffxdtddfffxddfxzdfxzddstrainlady hgfghfhfdgghjgttujfrtfdssfzaweddrfdfcfxzsddzxrtzxgcxxxxzxvzzxyxdcxxfttfxfgfhjgfhccfgcxxccxcdffgffxxfrtdsdfgfhjjhijhc
Ricus Grimbeek sounds as though he should be on the executive at Hogwarts. He’s an intriguing appointment though. His tenure at Trevali ended a bit messily and no reason was given for his early exit from Vale, but his CV is extensive including senior appointments with BHP. His LinkedIn profile stresses his innovative thinking and interest in community entrepreneurship. Clearly this is the reason he has joined the board to help make sense of the artisanal mining situation in Zambia. I believe the messages his appointment sends are extremely interesting.