Member Info for Jonah58

Yes, ‘things’ can change Kalan. This is the sort of insight which draws me daily to this board. The price of chrome could drop, though there is no sign of it yet and demand , especially from India, remains strong.

I suspect the investors who will be disappointed by copper production in the next set of figures will be precisely those with unrealistic expectations.

I think you will find we diversified in multiple metals some time before the financial bloke (Nicholas Taylor I assume) was appointed.

Agree Seis. I am not under any illusion that Sunday Roast interviews are little more than a choreographed charade, but Archer pinned Leon down to saying news on OB1 project will drop by end of March (subsequently modified to 2 weeks) and Roan still on target for comissioning and ramp up by end of April. He also said Sable would be at full capacity in a matter of months, not years. When pushed on Chambishi, he hinted we were looking actively for increased processing capacity, but this could be in the form of partnership. Current warrants are largely historical with exercise prices double today's Sp. Thutse upgrade - first module within two and a half months, I think. Munkoyo is on schedule.

After all the delays and disappointments, I don't think Leon can afford to say these things unless he is confident in delivering.

I disagree with Kalan that 'much depends on IRH deal'. In terms of revenue, this is going to take time to come through. Yes, any undue delay will affect sentiment and thus short term fluctuations in Sp, but we Roan and chrome upgrade are our immediate priorities. FWIW, I believe the IRH project's most valuable outcome is going to be a demonstration to the industry of what we can achieve and hence unlock the potential for future, more lucrative deals.

BT has been pretty rude to me and to many others on this board, but I don't like seeing anyone lose money and certainly have no time for gloating over another's misfortune, so I hope HUM extricate themselves from their current pickle. Meanwhile, lots of Jubilee shares change hands and the tick up suggests there is no shortage of buyers at this bargain price.

Striking volume of shares changing hands in the first half hour of trading.

Yes, that must be right. I got there in the end! He does a brilliant deal tomorrow, still has to wait three years to get his options. No deal at three years, he has to wait until the deal is done to exercise the options.

The problem, Cauld, is that the English is not plain. As a mathematician, the word comparative word 'latter' to me represents an 'Or' clause - the options vest in which ever one comes last. Then, as has been pointed out, we get an 'and' clause, implying both criteria must be met for the options to vest. The language supports both interpretations.

Have to say it seems a bit steep to me. Surely it's the CEO's job to pursue and sign commercial deals. Bit like awarding a whopping bonus to a university lecturer who actually delivers some lectures.

What is your reasoning, Heroric, please explain? The recent broker note (fair value = ~11p) heavily discounted this project, which is still at a very early stage. The eventual revenue from the IRH deal is not reflected in the current Sp IMO.

Dallo, you are right to stress the importance of dose and formulation (BioAmb being a particularly relevant example for us) , though, of course, many of the latest immunotherapies are genuinely novel as is Lupuzor's mode of action. I also agree that there were problems with inclusion criteria, recruitment (very heavy on the Mauritius centre) and clinical end points. For instance, a drug that causes no symptomatic improvement compared tp placebo but which alows the clinician to drastically cut the dose of steroids the patient takes would be a huge step forward but would be classed a failure unless steroid dose was one of the predetermined end points. Let's hope we have learned the lesson from the first phase 3 study, though the positive phase 2 study it was based on was less than striking. I reckon they will have to develop a peptide that significantly prolongs life if I am ever to get my investment back here!

I'm with you, Oldbutno. Something may or may not be going on but P & D crew out in force today!

We’ve been given end of April for Roan so I’m not expecting any news from there. But the DD for the IRH deal is scheduled to be concluded by mid March, which, technically speaking, is 1200 hrs today.

I guess that depends on how much it costs us to produce a tonne of contained copper in concentrate vs a tonne of cathode. I don’t think I’ve seen that breakdown.

No Gotreal, I wouldn’t be topping up at these prices if I thought that. I do however feel that when investing in small caps I don’t want to be exposed to the extent that failure of a company would leave me in serious financial difficulty.

I have already done very well out of Jubilee and confidently expect to do so again, but as I found out during a recent visit to Costa Rica, the grass is populated by snakes!

Mickie a few days ago

I’m not too surprised about the Sp Moneyman. For many people, now isn’t the right time for wild speculation. Money is tight and caution is the word. If I wanted to take advantage of skyrocketing copper prices, I’d be likely to buy shares in a company making shedloads of copper.

Like you, I am bullish about JLP’s future but I am only investing money I can afford to lose.

As an aside, in a response to Mickie Agee days ago I drew attention to the emerging narrative of SA and Zambia as increasingly separate businesses, now highlighted by the recent RNS. I sincerely hope Leon is not thinking of selling off the SA part, undermining the mantra of resilience in a multi-metal portfolio.

Edzi, Leon has already shown that the modules work. They built one and tested it. If it didn’t work they wouldn’t have painted it!

Disagree, BT. As far as the OB1 project goes (and this is the only one with a 70:30 split), Roan is not the overarching concentrator. In fact, it will not concentrate a single ounce of copper from that project.

I don't think we know the model for what happens to this concentrate yet. Possibly, as you suggest, the JV will sell it to Jubilee for processing at Sable, in which case we'll obviously have to buy it upfront as we we do with any third party transaction, but in one RNS, it says the JV will be producing its own cathode, in which case Sable will presumably be toll processing it. Also, as Jubilee will be paid for setting up and operating the JV, the split is likely to look more like 60:40.

Finally, you suggest that if the JV does not proced, we are in serious trouble. I would point out that this JV is heavily discounted in the recent broker note. There will be plenty of feed coming our way independantly of this project.

Thanks Seis. Interesting that iridium and ruthenium together account for 10% of Northam's revenue. You have drawn attention to iridium before, and its critical role in the green hydrogen revolution. How long before our PGMs cease to be the 'bonus' byproduct the have become and start to drive revenue again?1

BT, you say "Let's not forget that roan sells it's copper to JLP to process at sable, but they only retain 30% of the net proceeds that sable produces. Therefore JLP have to front up 70% of the net proceeds to IRH before they can process it downstream at Sable. " Unless I am mistaken, this would suggest you think the SpV joint venture material will be going to Roan. I was under the impression that it will be concentrated by onsite modules with the concentrate going directly to Sable. What has Roan got to do with the 70:30 JV split?

Sorry, my posts are coming out gobbledegook. Just bought a wireless keyboard. Please forgive.