Member Info for Jonah58

I too have seen directors’ buys as a hedge against upcoming poor news, but in this case I anticipate production figures and guidance to be more or less in line with what the market expects.

With regard to Sp, we are a company that produces PGMs and chrome. Seis has, on more than one occasion, posted graphic evidence that our Sp essentially tracks the basket price. I have done a regression analysis on his graphs and the correlation coefficient is unambiguously high. The basket price has been dropping recently. The Sp has followed. I would be surprised if it hadn’t.

Endorse that Fishy. My modest buy yesterday showed as a sale.

Did it in winter too (AE) Ben and then got scared sh**less in your cottage by the ghost. Once a risk taker, always a risk taker. Just done Forcan ridge at 76. I'm hanging on in here!

It's more costly to refine sulphide than oxide (according to Leon) so the additional refining cost is taken into account when buying concentrate.

I'm not sure what's happened to Jubilee's much vaunted non-smelting (thet is to say leaching) sulphide refining process. We seem to have gone a bit quiet on that one.

I think it is virtually impossible at this stage to come up with a reasonable figure for attributable copper production in the next year, be it sulphide concentrate, oxide concentrate or cathode, Edzi. I thought project M was Munkoyo and it was deemed 'new' as we had decided to exercise our option to buy the license. We are buying only 51% of project G so there will obviously be some split in profits here. The investment in expanding the sulphide circuit at Sable (which eventually will not be taking Roan's sulphide material) suggests to me that there is plenty of sulphide in M and G but that is only a guess.

I agree there is something brewing and I suspect this is related to refining capacity. All our original attention was on Chambishi but the recent RNS and interview point to a refinery at Roan. If this comes about in a couple of years we might be in a position to finance this but for anything sooner I am pretty sure we would need a wealthy partner!

Good point Edzi. I can only assume projects M and G material contains quite a lot of sulphide, otherwise there would be no need to upgrade Sable’s sulphide circuit, given it will not now be receiving sulphide from the ’north’.

Excellent RNS in my view and much what I hoped for (see my post 20 Jun 2024 11:09).

A lot to chew on here. No doubt others cleverer than me will work out what this means with regard to copper production, but I was more taken by the strategic aspect of the RNS. In particular the disconnect between Roan and Sable. This makes perfect sense to me. The distance between the two facilities is substantial. Now, at last, the 'north and south copper startegies' are meaningful. I bet project G is somewhere near project M - tthis is right up your stree, Seis!

Do I detect the intention to build a new refinery at Roan? Looks very much like it. Capex would be huge, but not if partnered by IRH perhaps. That deal seems to be trundling along and nice not to hear of any major hiccups.

I take your point Edzi, but remain to be convinced. If there was something big and bad they would have to disclose it, and would have done by now. If something big and good is smouldering in the background (as you suggest), there would be no reason not to give an update on Roan. I was wondering (hopefully) if they are busy concluding another small miner offtake agreement to fill up the remaining 40% capacity at Roan and wanted to package it all up together. But regrettably I suspect this is just frustrating time slippage due to logistic and/or beaurocratic problems which will eventually be sorted.

Nice chart Seis. You have posted similar convincing charts which include the PGM basket price. I did a regression analysis on one a year ago and the correlation i

was strong. Of course, it is hardly surprising that our Sp correlates with the PGM basket price, because that is what we produce. The market does, however, seem to be discounting chrome and I'm not sure why that is.

Gray. Remember half that 2M tonnes will be toll processed at a fixed rate way short of these calculations. We may have to pay more for ROM too. I am very bullish about chrome but don’t want to get carried away!

Mikie, remember we have a 6 year offtake agreement for ROM discard at approx 2% Cu which is expected to occupy 60% of Roan's upgraded capacity. This was announced over a year ago and is in addition to project M and the other small mining projects that are currently in the pipeline. Perhaps Seis's dumps - ;) - are composed of some of this material?

Thanks Dru and Dorf. Very helpful, but not too encouraging. I had high hopes of Ramaphosa. Better than Zuma, I suppose. With so many parties involved, I guess it’s going to take a while to work out the various permutations.

SA elections today. I’d be interested to hear your take on what’s going on Dorfan.

Kraft Heinz has agreed to sell its Planters peanuts and snacks business to Hormel Foods for $3.35bn

Peanuts (Argentinian runners) $1800 per tonne. Currently up 50% year on year.

And platinum has quietly reached $1050. Palladium up too. It all goes straight to the bottom line.

We are producing 300 metric tonnes of copper per month. Taking a pessimistic all in production cost of $6000 per tonne that equates to an earnings of $4000 per tonne or $1.2 M per month which is more than we are earning from PGMs I suspect (though the basket price is creeping up, so that comparison may be wrong). In any event, it is certainly not trivial.

I am not sure what you mean by payback time, Gray. Yes, the SPV will need to payback the shareholder loan but that will come out of SPV earnings. The capex for this project from Jubilee's point of view is zero if my understanding of the original RNS is correct. So, from a Jubilee perspective, the payback time can be measured in microseconds!. As soon as the SPV goes into production, we will be earning our 30% (more, actually, as we will be paid a fee for operating the project too). The payback time for IRH will depend on the precise details of the arrangement Seis pasted from the RNS but it is clear that the SPV will continue to bank some earnings during the payback period and 70% of the loan repayments will, in reality, be IRH paying itself.

Just one short of a million. So am I!

The conductivity and corrosion resistance of aluminium is much improved in aluminium graphite composites. I got quite interested in this and lobbed a modest chunk of cash into Tirupati (TGR) which promptly tanked (see my Avatar). Still looking for an appropriate windowledge to jump off because of that one.