Member Info for Jonah58

Hi Mikie. Not looked in here fo a few day, so apologies fo not responding to your post.

Nice to se a bit of volume today (ys, sme uncrosing trades, but plenty that weren't!). Not much to contribute at the moment. There's some sterile discussion about predicting the Sp. When shares go up and down the accuracy or otherwise of any specific prediction depends on your time scale. I am looking specifically at three years. For what it's worth (notmuch) I have added three times sub the placing price recently. My horizon is three years.

I'm inclined to agree with Seis that unless we access some very creative finance it would be hard to justify a bd for Chambishi in the near future, but Leon is hugely ambitious so I wouldn't put it past him. It's certainly very interesting to speculate.

In the RNS, the go ahead for the new units at Thutse was subject to internal controls. The presentation suggests it's full steam ahead, however. LC does seem to regard the SA and Zambia opeations as quite separate (spending $12 M to upgrade chrome, raising $12 M to upgrade copper).

Like you, I am also interested in the apparent plethora of project Ms going begging. This is the sort of thing that right up Rikus Grimbeek's street so I am watching that space with interest.

The link is in the RNS Edzi

Good idea, Eshaitan, but some hope! It would be nice to hear from some other board members on these Webinars, though. The Chairman, for example and the CFO too.

Quite a bit of repetition and redundancy in this RNS (typical for Jubilee) along with the usual plethora of 'significant footprint implementations and a bumper crop of split infinitives. Despite all that, I agree with Mickie, there is a lot going on.

Most importantly, the RNS is unambiguous that Roan will be ramping up with its new front end by the end of April - quite soon in fact. This seems a challenge, given that it is still in pieces prior to being shipped to a land-locked country in the rainy season, but I am taking this on face value. Presumably the problem with the electrical component is sorted.

The RNS reads as though the two new Thutse concentrators are a done deal, though at the end it continues to be subject to 'internal controls'. The capex of $12 M is considerable plus costs of forward purchasing ROM material. It's a relief to be re-assured that any SA chrome development will be funded out of chrome revenue.

There is some slippage on the OB1 deal from end of Feb to mid March. No indication of any problems with DD, so hopefully this will conclude soon and we can look forward to a refund of our initial outlay.

Interesting how PGMs have now become a by-product of our chrome operations in contrast to the previous talk of PGM production with 'chrome credits'. Such is the way of double-speak!

Like Mickie, I picked up on an improvement in our Copper production costs which should directly impact the bottom line as copper production ramps up at the end of April.

Passing mention of Mufulira furnace waste and nothing on Draslovka/Lechwe/Elephants.

At one point it states sulphide circuit upgrade at Sable underway, but later says work will commence in Q3 2024. I am still a bit hazy about how this dovetails with our concentrator at Roan. Are we going to concentrate the concentrate? I can see how it fits in with Munkoyo, which is geographically much closer and presumably contains mixed oxide and sulphide ROM.

Profitability of PGM ops is maintained, but only just. Looks like some material will be going to Eland, though that will be hardly profitable. Fingers crossed for an upturn in the basket price as predicted by the majority of analysts.

Lots to digest in the broker note, including considerable detail about our sulphide strategy. I see they have corrected their previous note to say they anticipate Jubilee buying the Monkoyo license.

I think their financial assessment is balanced. They attribute no value to Tjate and minimal value to the ‘elephants’ and Mufulira. They heavily risk Monkoyo and OB projects and make conservative predictions about metal prices.

BT draws attention to the change in fair value price compared with two years ago. Yes, things change, not the least being a massive drop in PGM basket price. I suspect they didn’t predict the sudden rise to 21p either.

I also think the note very fairly and clearly states what flow of information will induce them to revise their valuation upwards. It’s the sort of thing many of us here have been banging on about for years!

I stand corrected! GlyLeach is indeed being trialled large scaled on the historic tailings as stated by Seis. Not sure why I thought it was the furnace waste. Though, because of the affinity of cobalt to glycine, this may end up being a very good approach to that problem too.

My point about picking the low lying fruit is not affected.

I share your interest in the 300 M tonne tails at Lechwe and Elephant Charles. We must have had a processing solution in mind with Roan scheduled as the first of three processors. I think the JV with Draslovka is specific to the Mufulira furnace waste, and there is no rush to sort this out given the crash in cobalt price. Maybe we will be looking to roll out GlyLeach to the other tailings dams but it would be nice to hear from the BoD how we intend to approach this huge asset.

I suspect our current fixation on more economical waste rock and ROM projects has relegated this to the back burner.

Correction: 250 Mt vs 260 Mt. Sorry.

W.H.Ireland has produced a research note, though there are some discrepancies with the RNS

1. The note says the OB resource has been estimated at 350 M tonnes, the RNS states 360 M tonnes.

2. The note says "–Sable is all ready for producing 16kt/yr of copper." The RNS states that work on the expansion to this capacity will commence later in the year.

3. The note says " A deal has been signed to buy Monkoyo for $1.5m. The RNS says we have an option to buy the license for $1.5 M

The note concludes that more information about tonnages and grades, and the results of metallurgical testing in SA will be needed to complete their economic assessment, which is a point most people here will agree with.

It's good to get an update, but, although clearer than some, it still suffers from a certain characteristic 'wooliness'. It does give some clear indication of timelines for the SpV (due diligence) and the upgraded Roan front end. The news from Monkoyo is interesting. As Seis points out, are we going to become an open pit miner? The RNS states 25,000 tonnes per month at grade 1.5 to 3%. Using the lower end of this and an estimated margin of $4000 per tonne (I know this may be a bit too high based on the last update) gives a monthly income of $1.4 M.

Re-reading the RNS and the research note it does seem the expansion at Sable is to produce sulphide concentrate. I don't really understand this. From the last presentation, there is spare capacity at Roan to do this and Sable is a refinery which we know has the ability to convert sulphides to cathode. Perhaps Monkoyo ore is rich in sulphides, and there is an issue of transportation, or are we simply going to upgrade our 25% sulphide concentrate from Roan to something even more concentrated which will fetch a higher price on the market? Still quite a few questions bobbing around, but it does seem as though Leon is very keen to press home our 'first user' advantage and secure as much material as possible before rivals enter the fray.

Butter: re bottom line. From the september update. Revenue from chrome $85, costs $75 (averaged across toll/non-toll). So, if prices and costs don't change, @1,700,000 tonnes pa bottom line accrues $17 million. But new chrome units will be non-toll, so, if prices maintained, it could be better.

PGM Average revenue per oz $1031, costs (EXCLUDING chrome credits) $875 , Estimated annual revenue $6.3 million. So, not a lot but the recent comment that chrome is supporting PGM is incorrect. PGM is supporting itself (just).

Butter. If our toll profit margin is 4% and our JV margin is 5 times that as we have been told = 20% and our total prodit margin is 12%, a bit of maths shows that the split between the toll and non-toll is 50:50. (assuming costs for both processes are the same). This accords with what we have been told previously. With the expansion at Thutse, I guess the split will look more like 60:40 toll:non-toll, but I'd need more figures to come up with something more accurate.

Ever. Listen to Seis! Roan produces a copper sulphide concentrate from sulphide containing ore (which usually has the highest grade of Cu). Note that the sulphur is still in the concentrate so has not been removed yet as sulphuric acid, as some posters who do not understand the processes have suggested.

As Seis says, instead of smelting the sulphide concentrate at Sable (which is when the sulphuric acid would have been produced, but isn't) we are leaching it. Gotreal has posted convincing evidence that we are using the Albion process to achieve this. The process is licensed to Glencore and can be used to leach zinc too. This makes sense since Sable was previously owned by Glencore and used to produce zinc and copper. The process involves a fine milling of the material followed by oxidation of the sulphide using oxygen at atmospheric pressure, to copper sulphate (the familiar blue stuff from our chemistry days). At this point it is amenable to solvent extraction and follows the same path as the oxide ore to form pure cathode.

This is the process. I don't know how much sulphide is being processed at Sable at the moment, but the interesting thing is that a lot of money is being spent expanding the sulphide circuit so we must be anticipating acquiring a lot more concentrate, presumably from Roan. I expect the cap of 16,000 tonnes of Cu cathode per annum at Sable is therefore due to the fixed capacity of the electrowinning circuit which is the final common pathway.

Do we expect an RNS about the SPV? It is due to be set up and incorporated by 31st January, but I'm not sure if this would this merit an RNS. I am quite interested in who is going to be on the board of this company.

HD. It doesn't surprise me that the market has failed to respond to our chrome figures, current and potential. Although we are now producing a huge amount of concentrate, only a portion is attributable to JLP and we are still toll processing a large chunk at a fixed rate. This is a two edged sword. While chrome prices are boyant, it depletes our income. On the other hand it provides a hedge against any significant drop in prices. Chrome can be volatile and our margin is not huge. Until PGM prices improve and/or we show the market that our copper strategy is bearing fruit, we are somewhat dependant on chrome and that is deemed risky - hence a reluctance to invest heavily.

I concur with Seis' figures, but they are predicated, as he says, on the price of chrome concentrate maintaining its current level. This is why, in my opinion, the crucial trigger for a re-rate would be a successful commissioning of the newe front end at Roan.

Ever, Leon quite often uses the phrase 'copper equivalents' in his interviews and RNSs. I haven't heard him define this term yet but I have taken it at face value, that is: 20 tonnes of 5% oxide concentrate is 'equivalent' to 4 tonnes of 25% sulphide concentrate which is 'equivalent' to 1 tonne of pure cathode. I don't know if this clarifies things or makes them more complicated, or, indeed, if it is right!

HD, yes, he gave the impression he wanted to be one step ahead of the game, ensuring manufacturing capacity, long lead items etc. The 60 day programme, paid for by the placing, was always going to be needed however to further define the resource and to plan and design the engineering solution. IRH have yet to complete DD and I'm sure they will want to see proof of concept from the new front end at Roan, itself delayed for 9 weeks.

It is telling that a big chunk of the placing is going to expand the sulphide circuit at Sable bringing the capacity up to 16 K tonnes of copper a year. Leon must be supremely confident in all this copper strategy to spend so much getting ready to wind up production just as copper is predicted to soar in value!

I took it that Leon was saying first module up and running this calendar year. I know it's not too clear, but six months from the end of this quarter takes us to October.

On another tack, thanks for the two charts you posted. Do you know where we would be on the cost per oz PGM production chart without including chrome credits?

I have to admit, it’s a bit like watching paint dry. They are not giving much away about Mufulira and no mention of the eastern limb. The SpV seems more or less on course and there should be further news by the end of February.

Roan is still producing, though I note the copper guidance is conditional on fixing the problem with the delayed electrical component.

Chrome and PGMs going well but we are at the mercy of commodity prices.

Sable expansion not due until the end of the year. No bad thing as there’s no point having the capacity without the feed. Capex covered by the raise.

Looks as though several more opportunities are being explored at Ndola so hopefully some of these will come to fruition. We do have a good track record at landing these deals.

Interesting further information about Monkoyo, though, as usual it is tricky to decipher just what is going on! How do you read this section, Seis? I note the initial 20000 tonnes per month concentrator has increased to 35,000 tonnes per month.

A fair update, I suppose, that does not over promise.

Yes. I agree the World Counil's job is to promote platinum, and we are perfectly at liberty to question their estimates . But when they produce figures, they go to great lengths to show what data these figures are based on and to explain the reasoning behind their estimates. It is therefore not enough to state that some statement is an "over exaggeration" (tautology, btw). You must also say what figures or assumption you disagree with, and why. It's intellectually dishonest to trash something without giving any counter-argument.

Seis, I accept your point that regulars here will have an opinion on how much weight to give to individual poster’s comments. But a misleading comment will inevitably acquire some authenticity if it goes unchallenged. Someone who does not know this board, dropping in for information to help make a choice about investing here, needs to see a balanced picture.

I try to be reasonable and once I’ve expressed my opinion do not continue to engage in pointless antagonism.