Very interesting discussion and I thank all contributers. One point, perhaps overlooked, is that last year's incredible hike in basket price (especially rhodium and palladium) set the bar ridiculously high for thid year's performance.
It's a bit like Emma Raducanu winning the US open. Some people have expressed disappointment with her progress since then, but noticeably not Emma herself. She knows she has all that is required to make steady progress and the world is her oyster. I think the simile is relevant.
Homey has a point that there will probably be a shortfall, but I think we simply do not know enough even to make a rough estimate of how much this will be. I think we can assume the two northern concentrators will cost roughly the same as Roan, but I haven't a clue how much it will cost to renovate the refinery there and how the JV will work out. Equally, until we know whether we are building from new, or modifying an existing processing facility (and what sort of deal that entails) in the eastern limb it will be impossible to put a price on it. I agree that we probably wont be paying for all of this out of income, but the prospective revenue stream these investments opens up could well be used to leverage a corporate loan on favourable terms. I will be fascinated to see what Ollie makes of all this, and I don't think we will have to wait too long to find out.
I think there was a clue in the interview about the financing of the northern strategy in tha comments Leon made about Ollie sharing his concern for shareholders, and looking for other means of corporate finance rather than the issuing of equity.
Returning to our core business (!) Having read all the RNSs and presenations and listened to lots of interviews, I think I have a good understanding of our Gabon business and where it is going. But I am very much uncertain what is happening/planned in Mozambique where our concession is twice as big. I appreciate that the jurisdiction is considerably more 'challenging'. RENAMO is not a spent force and transportation logistics are unreliable, though the Nacala railway is presumably still functional. Even so, the company material is a tad coy about what is going on. Can anyone hre with an ear o the ground tell me where this part of the business is heading?
Yes Cavey, difficult to say. Maybe some off-market deals being reported too. I prefer to say that well north o 2 million shares changed hands today at somewhere between 15.3 and 15.4p. For every seller there's a buyer. Nice volume.
Thanks Seis for these intriguing posts and links. As your article says, the Nkana dump (dripping with cobalt) has been the subject of a number of attempts at beneficiation which have failed technically and/or economically. What it needs is a bespoke solution. One company in sub-saharan Africa springs to mind!
Then, as Charles emphasises, the 10% owned by a cooperative of artisan miners is problematical - leading to pollution, civil unrest, health issues and poor recovery rates. Kabuswe (seen nestled up to Leon in the pictures) is under pressure with this regard.
What is he do do about the army of scavengers highlighted in the striking images. If I owned a company interested in this project, the first thing I would do is highlight my credentials as a prospective employer.
Put another way - how many RNSs have we had about our job creation in South Africa?
I am a bit confused about cobalt from Sable. I am inclined to agree with Homey that this is likely to be pilot operation. My understanding is that the Roan material contains little cobalt and we will therefore be processing Northern strategy material, but this is not preconcentrated and is subject to joint venture agreements etc. Will we be trucking down raw tailings from a dump in Kitwe 200+ km to the preconcentrator at Sable before extracting the cobalt (and, presumably the copper too)? Alternatively, will we take the material about 60 km to the Roan concentrator, and then truck the concentrate to Sable?
In any event, I agree with everyone here that the definite entry of cobalt into the pipeline is exciting for the medium term if not in the immediate future.
Jay, AIM is a pit of vipers. Best not to invest on the basis of anything anyone says on this board. These small companies are hugely risky and no one in their right mind will invest money here they can't afford to loose (and still keep a smile on their face).
With that caveat, I can say why I am here.
1. WBI is a well run company that deals in a commodity that is in great demand and will continue to be so for the forseeable future.
2. I believe it is well managed by a board that has skin in the game and is supported by its institutional investors.
3. It is investing heavily in its ESG credentials which, in the current environment, is surely the way forward.
4. It has a realistic, but ambitious, programme of expansion. It communicates these plans well with its shareholders. I assume you have read the recent presentations on the website.
5. Its stated aim is to pay a dividend as soon as it is feasible.
6. Communications are good and are scheduled to improve further.
In answer, but I am holding for the medium term. Deduce from that what you will. to your specific question, I have no idea what is going to happen to the share price
Hi HTC. One point you didn't mention in your somewhat downbeat analysis of the Inyoni expansion project is the flexibility it gives us with regard to composition of the feed. This improves not only the resilience of the operation but also its longevity. This will add value in the long term which is not easy to quantify using the sort of fag packet calculations so beloved of retail investors posting on bulletin boards.
OMG Kaiser! Do I remember Smokey Hills! It would be truly ironical if we ended up there but you have a point. We have already done the due diligence after all. There was a thread about a year ago where we speculated where the Eastern limb ore was coming from. Maybe worth checking if that is 40km from Smokey.
Not so sure about smelting - uses a lot of electricity. Sable can produce sulphuric acid and presumable the northern processor too. Transport costs from the Eastern limb to Zambia would surely be prohibitive?
You are absolutely right, Tricky, about Roan Antelope and Luanshya. My understanding is, however, that Roan also applies to a copper rich geological seam in Zambia and it is this which gives its name to the Roan project. Having said that, the two are pretty close to each other!
Like everyone else here, I pricked up my ears with the several mentions of cobalt, but I wonder where it is going to come from. I was under the impression that most of the cobalt was in the northern operation dumps, though, frankly, Roan is pretty northern too. Sable already had a cobalt circuit, I believe, to process the material Glencore was shipping in from DRC.
The other point, also noted by others, is the insinuation that a new plant in the eastern limb is all but a done deal. I don't think the current feed from the east will be enough to justify a dedicated plant in the long run. So Leon must have his eye on further material and I suspect it is something specific that is already under negotiation.
Any views?
Spot on Kaiser. BMR rises from the ashes. The company did not become defunct, just delisted. I guess we still have the option to buy out the royalty but would we want to. There are no immediate plans to monetise Kabwe and we would earn 29% of the royalty anyway due to our holding. I wonder what Colin’s plans are.
Spot on, Barnetp for a whole host of reasons, which begs the question 'what is responsible for the rally?' There was no immediate response to the results published on 19th April, so we can discount that. If a greater than 100% surge in share price had been due to a spurious article, I think the company would have issued a speeding ticket. The fact that they have not done so implies that they know of a good reason for this rally.
Since April 19th, the RNSs have concerned shifts of holdings between major players, the admission of previous non-voting shares to be voting shares and the premature departure of the CEO. Therein must lie the clue to what is gpoing on, but my naive lack of understanding of company shenanigans leaves me high and dry. Can anyone with better market insight here read the tea leaves? What to you think, Dactions, I respect your views and you have been here longer than most?