Heroric. I understand that you are livid, but I don't understand why you have restrained your lividness until now. You should have been livid the day the deal was made with ACAM, when our shares were virtually worthless, and we wanted to buy an operational refinery in a new jurisdiction and open the doors to a whole new phase for the company. This dilution was written in stone at that time - why get cross now?
I do not accept BT's argument that we could have paid off the loan earlier and avoided dilution. By the time we had enough cash flow to do this, the SP was already on the up and ACAM, 'at their sole discretion', would have elected to convert. In fact, I bet they are kicking themselves they did not convert at 21p. It makes no difference to us shareholders what the SP was when they converted. The dilution is just the same, well known, predictedand factored by intelligent analysts into the SP.
I do agree that this will probably create an overhang which will be a headwind to the SP in the near future, unless copper revenue tempts ACAM to hang onto at least some of their shares.
I think we have just about exhausted this thread but wanted to get my tuppence worth! My understanding is that ACAM could convert at any time. So, if Jubilee said at any tim they wanted to pay off the loan by any other means, ACAM could say 'no thanks, we'll convert'. The dilution at the conversion price was always inevitable. If this is true, then it becomes a matter of timing. If we had made moves to repay last May, ACAM couldhave converted when the SP was 21p (making them a lot more money if they had then elected to sell immediately their 7% holding in the company). To tempt ACAM to 'take the money' rather than convert, we would had to force their hand well before December 2020, just when Slater was buying in and we were puring money into Roan.
If we had had the money then, it might have reduced the dilution. Bushy does have a point, but the situation is/was more complicated than hisposts suggest with a load of 'ifs & buts' . It's so easy to be clever retrospectively
ACAM took a huge risk and it payed off. It will be interesting to see what they do with their holding. Time to move on.
The Sp of a company is a reflection of everything that is known about it by the market which includes the researches of full time paid professional analysts. They, like the rest of us, knew that the conversion was coming. For that reason I believe the conversion is already factored into the share price and, indeed, may go some way to explain the temporary lull in the otherwise inexorable upward trend in the value of our company. I do not anticipate a huge drop in Sp as these shares are dumped. Infact, I am buying a few more today!
Our bottom line will participate in the rally, Happy43. I welcome the RNS. We knew the conversion had to happen fairly soon and we knew the price. It's like being sick. Unpleasant at the time but you feel much better after.
The drop is on low volume, Dorf. I'm not too bothered. I think the market is anxious about us delivering on copper. Roan was delayed by Covid and there is the possibility of transport problems in the rainy season. I think an update on Roan commissioning should settle the nerves (assuming it's positive, of course!)
They relocated the plant ostensibly because it would provide greater efficiences at Inyoni compared to DCM. I can't help thinking, however, that with the legal challenge there was a possibility of Cheetah acquiring the plant with the dump and we wanted to get it out ASAP.
You'va had some good replies already, Telly. Firstly, our IP is not unique. Our approach is to work out the best flow sheet on a dump by dump basis. It is tailoring widely available and understood processes to the individual DNA of a given surface resource that gives us our edge.
Second, the grade of material in each dump varies, and for many dams even our best endeavours would not be profitable at current market prices. Since metal prices are volatile, many borderline ventures will be seen as too risky. Leon has often said that we turn down more offers than we follow up (so we are getting plenty of interest).
Third, as others have pointed out, there is always the danger of overstretching ourselves. But you are absolutely right - with a cautious and thorough approach the world is our oyster.
Interesting points being made on this thread but I think we are overlooking the important consequence of the Inyoni upgrade which is not to grow PGM earnings year on year but to give the cash cow a nice long life. That background security simply wasn’t there previously and it’s hugely important for our overall strategy.
JLPos, if you are the poor stepsister, I am the destitute third cousin twice removed. I had to sell the bulk of my holding to solve a family problem last year, leaving me with a mere 400,000, but the way this is going that is still no peanuts, I suppose.
Good to read different views on this board and I have no problem with Homey's agenda. Just a couple of points, though.
I think it is wrongl constantly to be making comparisons to SLP. We deal in the same arena, of course, but SLP is a far more mature company which made its major investments well before us. Or trajectories are offset by a good number of years. In the end I believe we will reach higher because of our diversity but accept that this brings its own challenges too.
My second point is to ask TG5 to reconsider and share with us the destination of the money he/she got from selling JLP. If smeone sees a better investment opportunity than this one at its current price, I for one would want to look at it very closely.
I agree Mikie. It looks as though we are set for a bumper year in 2022. For me, the main message from the RNS was the lack of any gremlins. Production and revenue from PGMs down but this was expected and the blip is temporary. Commissioning at Roan is on track. Expansion into the eastern limb seems a given. Lechwe due online in just over a year.
Two other points. Clearly our joint venture with Northam at Eland is still ongoing. We will be sending less material there, but there will be some additional ounces from this source during the current year. Also, I picked up this point from Leon: '... concentrator situated in Ndola (Project Roan) that delivers copper concentrate to our Sable Refinery and third-party suppliers....' So it seems not all the output from Roan is destined for Sable. Are doing some toll processing there as well?
Good news all round. I'm feeling bright eyed and bushy tailed this morning.
I don't think we should become fixated on bettering our performance month on month. Last year set the bar very high. A good solid set of results is fine by me. The company is on a great trajectory and there will inevitably be ups and downs. I have a three year horizon and am relaxed and happy with my investment.
I seldom post here, but have a small position and have read with interest the various explanations for the price action here today - so thanks for that.
By the way, has anyone any idea when we are going to hear the assay results on the most recent drilling cores?
Hi Bushy: in reply to your question
"really, they've been saying this for 2 years now, how much copper is being produced exactly?" the answer is'not much so far'. But 'not much' is different from 'still NO copper'. My point being that one's current take on the company depends on the point of view from which you observe it. I thoroughly respect your reservations but from my own point of view 'still no copper' is a negative distortion of what is currently going on.
This is that:
50k ounces in a year disrupted by commissioning and Covid, with all revenue attributable to JLP. Increase expected the following year
DCM stockpile fate unknown.
Significant value adding fund rase at a premium
No news on Tjate.
Patent expired on Conroast but we don't smelt anyway.
Copper currently being produced in increasing quantities
No lead, zinc, vabadium (good point)
Inyoni refurbishment ensures long term viability of the cash cow.
Colin sells shares well below the high.
PGM revenue incresng substantially year on year
Respected fund managers taking substantial positions and adding to their holdings.
It all depends on your point of view.