My take6 Apr 2023 11:41
There is not silence on this board, just a dirth of interesting threads in the last couple of weeks.
Discounting the irrelevant 'down, down, down, dog of a share, lol, ha ha ha' posts (and equally childish 'wow! 80p by end of month choo choo choo posts) and also pathetic attempts at manipulation (viz Slater selling/TR1 stuff, which tells us all we want to know about the poster's understanding of the stock market and his agenda), there have been other negative offerings backed up with factual information. But I think there is a problem with these in that only the information that supports the argument is presented - in other words a lack of balance.
An example is the constant reference to a massive drop in earnings per share last year compared to the year before. This is undeniably true. One problem here is the unprecedented spike in the price of palladium and rhodium in 2021. Statisticians would regard these price points as being 'outliers' when analysing price trends. Allowing for this, the Sp drop is not so marked and corresponds fairly well to a regression line constructed from the data Seis has posted. Other factors are at play, of course. Headwinds include inflation, war, lockdown in China, global recession, fuel costs, and a consequent general exodus from high risk investments. Add to this the disappointment of a 6 month delay in copper production, the dumping of warrants and power issues in SA and the slide is easy to understand. We do not need to invoke fundamental problems with our company or its management. On a positive note, Dorfan has highlighted the cushioning effect of the weak rand on our sales which are made in dollars. As a previous head of a highly successful metals outfit in SA his posts command our respect.
Two other posts casual passers by may have noticed refer to directors selling shares and copper grades in our dumps being lower than expected. Just to point out that the latest RNS on director share dealing is the purchase of shares by LC and Ollie. The dumps have been drilled. I cannot put my finger on a JORC compliant report, but the Cu grades are roughly equivalent to those some miners are now commercially extracting - the only difference being that someone else has already dug ours up for us.
A while back there was a gloomy poster here called Kitchens. He rejoiced in the Sp drop from 19p to around 3p. His rhetoric was just the same as some other posters around today. I ignored his advice and bought a shedload, 2/3 of which I sold at 18.5p - the single best investment I have ever made on the stock exchange. And now, I can hardly believe it, , I've got an opportunity to do it all over again!
I have no grouse with BT. It was he who reminded me that the Sp of companies goes up and down (thanks for that insight). If he has made good money shorting this share, then 'well done'. I expect to do the same going long.
Two other
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