Member Info for johnpwh

Ps weekend!

Hi slig

Honestly I don't make any judgement about you at all!

Not sure who you mean by Dic, Dic from Rugby? Now there is a name from the past!

The problem is now, for us LTHs, we have seen nothing from this company except a board who do their own thing as they see fit (partly understandable), are making a good living out of this company, but disappointingly have made some pretty poor business decisions along the way which shareholders posting on this board disagreed with at the time. And producing ludicrous timescale after ludicrous timescale which you have to conclude they know are incorrect when they say them. Dokwe is already following that very well established trend, 3 years to production put forward by Sener 2+ years ago? He should have a show at the Edinburgh Fringe. My own estimate is 2032 - 2035. Pessimistic? Maybe, but sadly maybe not. Even worse possibly optimistic.

I get what you are saying, and to quote from your third paragraph 'just before the company is about to deliver on some pretty important milestones which will only help bolster the obvious disconnect between the sp & pog'. Like I felt in 2016 when all the talk was about the 1+million oz prospect in Salinbas that was put forward as the company maker, the full focus of the company. Does that sound familiar? Sener himself told me over drinks at one of the London presentations that the Western Turkey assets could be regarding as the cash enabler for the rapid development of Salinbas. Well that worked well. People starting their research her could be forgiven for thinking that Salinbas is a minor prospect at best, maybe haven't seen it mentioned at all.

We felt the same again when, as I said the other day, just as production started at Kiziltepe had started and was debt free half the asset (and just as importantly overall control) was virtually given away to some mysterious third party - don't forget that, as it is now transpired, 75,000 ounces of gold at Tavsan was lost to Ariana shareholders by that deal at maybe £1500 per ounce net income. Multiply one by the other and cry.

I may come across as an old curmudgeon, I realise that. But people like me, Van, Paul 280i, LoB, Claret and DJ have seen all this. if there are no changes its going to be rinse and repeat. And the only conclusion is that its a good company, capable of finding good assets, but with totally the wrong management to exploit them.

In a sense us old miseries (and I think you would be surprised of you met me because I am pretty glass half full in life) are providing a service here - stay with me on this one. I can see that anyone new to this company thinks wow, this is a multibagger, in the near future nailed on. Now that could finally, finally, finally be true. But those newcomers do need to look deeply at the history here. This company has always shown massive promise over the last decade or more - but put Ariana Resources Share Price into Google and select 'Max'. The graph ain't pretty.

Have a good

slig

doom and gloom from investors (some investment!) who have been very supportive of this company for a decade or more. yes foolishly before anyone says it.

i agree that in terms of prospects the company is in at least as good a position as it was in late 2019 before the managements ill fated decision to **** away the assets in turkey that were about to become debt free and seriously remunerative for a pittance (less no doubt large expenses to advisors).

the company is good, the management aren't. the bigger the asset they have to exploit the more out of their depth they are.

There is no scepticism about their incompetence. There is about their competence though!!

Everything hinges on the ex Rockover shareholders if there is a bid.

So many ordinary shareholders (not just me!) would support a half decent bid now. The persistent delay by Sener and his drill bit , which will only be limited by running out of money (again and inevitable), is eventually going count against him. We were promised 3 years to first pour, it is very clearly going to be nearer 10.

Shows what a good geologist but incompetent businessman he is.

If his drilling being undertaken now fails to produce anything of consequence the share price will bomb.

If the drilling being undertaken now turns up great results, with being no nearer having a believable plan for 100% exploitation, then the prospect of takeover increases significantly provided PoG and the progress of the mining bit play ball.

I do think a decent bid, 4p plus, hopefully 5p plus if more than one suitor is involved, would be carried even though on paper it is low. Patience has run out on this jam tomorrow lifestyle company.

No sympathy for Sener, he has only himself to blame, shareholders have been ignored for too ling. So roll on good results!

Hi LoB, hope you are well.

Right assets, wrong management and an academic CEO who doesn't know (or want to know) the expression 'a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush'. He needs to learn fast before Dokwe becomes 2035 or beyond, or worse the fat lady sings.

Up The Clarets!

The gold price is over $4000, a year ago it was $2750! Ariana on the other hand was 2.9p a year ago compared to 1.6p now.

I have just read the excellent post by backmarker on ADVFN. I agree with him.

Yes, ASX loved it, Australia is a country that knows which gold miners to invest in. Minus 4.6% overnight.

PoG weakness or no PoG weakness the markets have zero confidence in this management, or the companys financial position, to be able to exploit the admittedly reasonable prospects that it holds.

All of us shareholders should be hoping for an approach from other miners, with the financial resources and talent, to make something of this situation because De Villiers and Sener don't stand a snowballs hope in hell of doing so. And the market is saying that loud and clear.

Can’t fault the logic, I am from a financial background after reading maths. Trouble is that AAU seems to defy logic.

The cost to develop Dokwe seems undetermined. Sener has said he could build a modular plant (my words), then implied a big 'un, before recently going back to small is beautiful and expand the plant as the revenues start (an approach which would have my support as the gold ain't going anywhere, the only risks I see with that approach is a retrace in PoG and political risk).

But even a 'small and grow' approach will require capital investment well in excess of the current MC of 40 odd million. I would be very unhappy indeed with debt at that level, and I can imagine the terms available for that debt would not make pleasant reading. We all know about small companies and debt, it often ends in debt for equity swaps or total wipeout for shareholders. The alternative, and one implied by seeking an ASX listing is equity raises, the markets (ASX and AIM) know that which would go some way in explaining the why the SP is in the doldrums despite PoG/PoS and the apparent mega prospects. Why chase the shares when the company will be along with a begging bowl shortly?

To which I would add both markets appraisal of the stagnant management.

If we all get our holdings diluted by 50% by market placing(s) then so do all the projected returns for currents shareholders by the same percentage. As I said earlier point B is, I admit, a very very attractive place. But Ariana is at point A with a bloody big hill in the way and I have no confidence that this management can scale it.

We have already seen the old Sener show himself recently. He got AIM shareholders to vote in favour of Dokwe by promises of rapid development and the DFS published with priority. He gave much the same promise to get the ASX listing away but then what. As soon as the ASX listing was away he, in my opinion, showed that he had lied. All of a sudden he found an anomaly on the edge of the planned pit, and because he thinks that might yield a significant increase in resource he wanted to drill it, spend loads of the lovely new kitty, potentially to enhance the DFS. Now I could have been convinced by that at a pinch - but why is there also drilling in the central Dokwe area? When will it stop? When the money runs out again? He can’t stop himself, and after this drilling campaign he will justify more and more until the DFS is put back to 2027, 2028...... Its got to stop.

Good work, seriously mean that.

The problem with Ariana, and has been for a decade or more, is not potential. Its never been about potential, its always been about execution,

We are at point A. The management are being helped enormously by a storming PoG and, for that matter (which shouldn't be forgotten) PoS,

Your cashflows are point B,

How does Ariana get from point A to point B in a reasonable time, within their current income, retaining 100% Dokwe ownership, at a reasonable level of risk with the current management, with a CEO who is incapable of treating a public quoted company as other than his personal fiefdom?

Experience of me, DJ, Van and others gives us no confidence, not because we are unpleasant people, but because we have experienced it. Always waiting for what appears to be great returns from promised developments just over the horizon (Venus, Salinbas etc) but still staring at the same share price.

I don't believe in the ability of this management, and want management change.

MasterG

From my favourite December 2021 AAU presentation:

Tavsan gold-silver project

US$630 per ounce cost of production.

Now given:

a) The Kiziltepe mine was at the time churning out lots of ore so taking up most if not all of the plants capacity

b) PoG was about $2k

Then I assume no trucking was then planned from Tavsan due to lack of capacity at the plant and lack of financial justification given the lower PoG.

$632 can IMO therefore be the anticipated cost of production from the heap leach alone. Now this has to be adjusted for wage/ cost inflation in the interim. So $750 - $800?

Hi

Did you see Bigglesbinghams post on ADVFN earlier? Worth reading.

I can understand the costs rising due to trucking to Kiziltepe from Tavsan, even though it is higher grade ore the fact you have to truck is a sizable overhead with only a few grams per tonne.

Out at the moment, will read your post properly later

John

And once again gold up, GGP up, Ariana Resources down.

Seriously who here is surprised?

Hi Van

He also says:

'With Tavşan completed and cash flow about to resume, Salinbaş is expected to be the next major exploration focus for the Turkish JV, potentially adding a large-scale copper-gold discovery to Ariana’s asset base.'

The Tavsan mine was funded, along with some debt, from the free cashflow emerging from the dregs of Kiziltepe and its satellites. Ariana was starved of dividends from Zenit by the 53% control of Ozaltin to the point at which TW concluded, a few months ago, that 'the fat lady was on the point of singing'.

So how does that square with Renniks possibility that Ariana could develop the 100% owned but totally undeveloped Dokwe production facility, in 2-3 years, out of cashflow it received from Zenit now that Tavsan is finally on the verge of full production? Its going to develop Salinbas, because that is in Ozaltins interest.

Dilutive fund raises/ dangerous balance sheet debt/ Dokwe JV (hopefully)/ Takeover (even more hopefully, beckon. Hopefully not Armageddon, the result of the inept BoD having been totally outmanoeuvred.

Thanks Van

I am confident, like you, that Ariana is quite capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, that potential victory having been gifted to the incompetent BoD by a rise in PoG that they can take zero credit for.

All I know is that after the best part of 10 years of my involvement here Ariana Resources have managed to virtually exhaust a not insignificant gold mine and its satellites in Western Turkey leaving only a hole in the ground, a scar on Turkeys landscape, while at the end of that period leaving a completely unchanged share price for its long suffering shareholders. Quite an achievement.

Renniks analysis is impressive and I thank him. I would be reluctant to assume 500k oz additional ounces from current drilling as I am not sure that has ever been claimed by Sener, and is a big ask. Maybe I've missed something, in which case I apologise.

However the rest of the analysis seems to assume no dilution of current AAU equity holders or their interest in getting to production, either directly by placings or indirectly by forming a JV.

I cannot see that with the current MC it is wise to load the balance sheet with debt of c.2 x MC or expect the production plant can possibly be built from Zenit dividends when Ozaltin will dictate how that JV income is spent. And dictate they will else why did they insist on 53%.

Today gold went up by 1% by London Close. Ariana resources went down over 2%. The market, here and in Australia, is not convinced any more than I am.

Be interesting to revisit todays posts by all parties in 3 years, 15/10/25, and see who got their predictions right.

Verbatim quote from Ariana presentation dated December 2021:

Tavsan gold-silver project

30,000 ounces gold per annum, expected from feasibility study.

Production expected to commence in early 2023

So only 3 years late on something predicted 12 months in the future.

So when do we expect Dokwe production to commence given that in the best part of 3 years (I lose count) all we have had is a lot of talk, Sener drilling holes with money Ariana hadn't got and AAU delaying the DFS which is necessary to allow the raising of finance by god knows what dilutive method.

Seriously who here would put a grand down at William Hills on production starting before 2030? or 2032? After Salinbas I would be reluctant to place a bet before 2035. I have long said that if AAU forms a JV at Dokwe it should avoid being a minor partner like has happened at Zenit. I'm not so sure now, if its just for the one project I now have such a low opinion of De Villiers and Sener that a dominant JV partner which has drive and ambition would be preferable.

Nice to see the PoG increase continues, and my GGP SP with it though of course not AAU which just goes sideways.

Fun fact PoG is up a third since the middle of July, silver as well (actually more) as has GGP. AAU SP hasn't moved

The management has no credibility left in their ability to advance projects , now confirmed by ASX as well as AIM SP performance.

So I wonder where the green posters think the finance is coming from to develop Dokwe as a 100% asset?

Zenit dividends whose distribution is controlled by Ozaltin who Sener and co gave control away to, and who probably want to develop Salinbas with?

Equity via massive dilution due to the depressed SP, which is likely to remain depressed because of the expectation by the markets of equity raises?

Debt on the balance sheet at very high interest rates due to the low MC and the managements appalling record on delivery, possibly leading to potential default with the inevitable AAU delay and that old AIM favourite debt/ equity swaps with the added risk of equity holders losing everything?

A bid or a favourable Dokwe JV deal is by far the best solution here for long term shareholders, but either may be delayed while the mining bill goes through the Zimbabwe Parliament.

Open message to all well run gold mining companies.

Will you please put a bid in and depose the arrogant boy king please before this collapses. Most shareholders will back you at about 3p to get out of this embarrassing ****show.

About bloody time