Member Info for johnpwh

Complicated isn't the word.
Thanks for taking the time to explain
John

AD
Ok, post pub but reasonably coherent (in my opinion)
How do you see that TO & Petrofac screwed up? Bit confused on this point as I naively assumed Spirit and Hur would be calling the shots since they were financing the operation.
Looking at the RNS, and the comments in Malcys summation of his chat with Dr T, are we saying that the main problem here could well (no pun intended) appear to be the 'D' part of 'WD', and shallower wells are likely to be successful given the oil traces found?
Must admit that post alcohol cautious part of me wants to chop in a third of my holding while I am still in profit while the more adventurous part is thinking 'stuff it, lets top up'

Lots of common sense here. Dunkirk spirit. We're British and have stiff upper lips. Off for a pint. Its been 'emotional'

I am down today obviously, like most, but I don't really think some of the reactions here are justified.
I have no evidence that Dr T is a crook, or that HUR is 'shit'.
A well, which was never guaranteed, didnt come in as we all hoped. They were drilling a well in granite hundreds of meters beneath a the surface in a very unforgiving ocean. This is a high risk/ high reward enterprise. Perhaps some posters should remember that before they take it so personally. Even if you think it has been, I'm sure its not be done to **** you off

Hi PT, welcome. Cant promise HUR will reverse your loss but hope you do well.
Ignore the constant bickering and arguments, there are some knowledgeable people on here

AD
She was indeed, I did quite enjoy watching 'the Cure' last night. Robert Smith is certainly unmissable...
Back to the subject in hand, I have never pretended to be able to spar on the technical side of things (and having read many posts some others appear to need to realise that too). But I will challenge the thought that the company put everything on red with WD...wouldn't be responsible of the Board of a (previously) £1bn company to do so knowing the consequence on the SP of failure. As we have found this morning.
p.s. not selling, not sensible with todays sentiments. Dont think I can bring myself to invest further either, so sitting on my hands. Having done the calcs referred to I am tempted though

Apropos of nothing, as the great philosopher Sheryl Crow once said, I have just been kicking around some numbers on a spreadsheet based on resources, costs at various PoO points etc. in the 2019 Corporate Presentation.
The numbers just for Lancaster alone are astonishing - Im not going to share them and become a target of sniping for the rest of the day, but I have a financial background so I know what Im doing. Put it this way, I feel reassured that all is not lost.

Hmmm, not great but it is what it is.
Do the oil guys here think that we should now hope that Lincoln and Warwick are NOT connected, and that Lincoln stands alone - after all the previous 2016 Vertical drill on Lincoln was deemed a success and resulted in a glowing RNS. Does that 2016 RNS imply that the 205/26b-B Lincoln Crestal well, about to be drilled, has a far greater chance of success?

Cadell. you are getting into air resistance now.
Wheras density doesn't directly affect the effect of gravity, streamlining does - hence the usual example about the tardiness of a feathers fall ( in other than a vacuum).
I suspect bowel contents , in general, offer more air resistance than a bomb so may be delayed. Just saying

Well I don't normally enter into this verbal jousting about technical issues, because I know sod all. But as a layman I wouldn't describe 27 degrees as 'vertical'. I would describe it as a 'jaunty angle'

Think WhichWayNow may already have answers my question a) at 13.13, though a simpler answer from one of our techies would be appreciated

We have a gulf on this board between those who know what they are talking about and the rest (which obviously includes myself). So couple of questions
a) If it is the 'Halifax Problem' at WD, are the fines causing clogging produced by the drilling process itself or are they simply present in the geological structure? Are there known ways around the problem? The latter worries me as if there are obvious ways to prevent then, having been encountered on Halifax, would precautions not have been taken when drilling WD?
b )If hydocarbons are present in Warwick, and it is one single accumulation with Lincoln, does it matter where on the Lincoln/Warwick area the production is taken from?
c) Why do certain people on the board persist in posting gloom and doom and 'there is no oil its a duster' prophecies when it is evident that the rest of the board either ignore them or use them as a source of amusement. Why waste their time?

Song for the day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYi5aW1GdUU

Have another beer Wulbert. Look on the bright side, I can't get beer from Carmelite nuns around Oakengates so you're one up on me.
And if necessary you can get a new wife, you shop for them on the internet these days. The trade in tends to be expensive though

2 or 3 times....!

2 or 3 times

Yep Van. I'd noticed LSE seem to be repeating messages 2 or 3 times

Hi P3. I asked the question too. Tried to contact PG, had a chat with Purple Pullover (or whatever they are called) and concluded that, unlike previous presentations, you just rocked up. They had no note of me but still let me in without searching my faithful grey rucksack. I could have wiped out pretty much the whole BOD!!

I'm jealous Biffadog. Maybe I need to look into it.

Thanks Paul,
Little to add really, the meeting was short with no informal 'meet the board over drinks' afterwards. But I am glad I made the effort even if it was an early start.
I'm going to do my best Victor Meldrew now and ask that other posters turn up at these events. There was only 4 PIs (maybe 3, I don't know who the 4th was) at the meeting - there is no compulsion for AAU to put these on, if one day only one person (or none!) turns up we may lose them. Grump over.
There was nothing new, but the animation of the Directors was again reassuring. Politically CHP is not considered a threat, Turkey likes industries like mining which provide employment and encourage this inbound investment. Again talk that the Kiziltepe area and Tavsan are both confidentially expected to expand in time with many untested areas, to extend LOM. Dr S said that even the poorest grades were being stockpiled for eventually processing via a leeching (leaching?) process when the rest of Red Rabbit is exhausted - he said it would be worth extracting even if only 5,000 oz pa.
He reassured me that the transition form Arzu South to Arzu North/ Derya will be managed to avoid a dip in production. AN/D are being stripped at the moment as a precursor to mining commencing, and though AS will cease mining this year (but being mothballed rather than abandoned and back filled as further test drilling and underground mining is possible longer term) there will be a stockpile from AS at the processing plant for several months next year. AN/D do not have such good grades as previously noted in the mine plan. So we can expect a decline in grades. Chris stepped in and said the drop in grades was not lilkely to become apparent until midway through 2020 due to the stockpile. Dr S added that with decreasing grades comes increasing costs so (for a given POG/POS) the financial results will decline in the absence of Tavsan (which is still earmarked for early development, some results from recent drilling expected soon) …..unless a second ball mill is employed which was again discussed.
Kizilcukur discussions re JV are still being held, the implication being that they are 'advanced'. Wholly AAU owned Kizilcuckur ore being processed at the JV plant this summer was also discussed, sounds like the ore will be purchased by the JV off AAU, which sounds sensible, Salinbas naturally came up, really just a geological walk round presented with obvious enthusiasm. Further drilling there, at least in the foreseeable future, will be funded from cash flow, the timing will depend on permits which I think MDV referred to in this mornings RNS. Lastly (I think!) Dr S said that totally new permits were hard to come by and can take years to obtain as they need Ministerial sign off, but (if I understood correctly) existing permits do come up occasionally for whatever reason.