Member Info for johnpwh

Agree. The Proactive interviews are a decent length and feel informative. There are a couple of things I would like him to have asked (for instance I would like to know which tax year he expects the special dividend to fall into, life of W.Turkey mines given they are spending on the plant, if the 'new' JV is paying for the Kiziltepe plant expansion or does it fall on AAU/Proccea) but a good interview.

Thanks Ash, appreciated

Thanks Goldhedge, will look at that. Years ago I held Rambler Metals, but thankfully exited in time when it became obvious it was one missed promise after another, one fundraising following the last!

Similar approach really. I cut some of my exposure to AAU and now have holdings in Lithium and Vanadium companies. I tend to avoid holdings in several companies producing the same commodity, as they will largely move in unison. I feel I am missing copper, which has been recovering well, other than possibly through AAU in Cyprus.
Good Luck All
John

Ash
Been good chatting on this board.
With the current economic mess there seems a few imponderables. I am a pensioner sitting on a pretty comfortable DB pension, so on the face of it in a nice place. But the annual uplift is Min (5%, RPI), so a worry is what will happen to inflation in the post Covid world? High or low? I have no idea, so a return to the 1970s levels of near 20% inflation would leave me up a certain creek without a paddle. You mention gold/ silver - in a way there is an element of independence between them as silver is an industrial metal as well as a precious one, but like inflation I'm not sure what will happen. Will gold increase? Or will it dip as the gloom lifts and people don't seek its supposed safety?
The only thing I have learned over the years is that I am rubbish at predicting anything. Back in March who would have predicted the current levels of the US equity markets given Covid, Trump and a Democratic victories in the Presidential and Senate elections?
i think that provided the members of the board remain on board then AAU will become a great bottom drawer share, especially if a small regular dividend is established. A share consolidation wouldn't go amiss either, maybe 1 for 10 or 1 for 20 to bring the SP to a level where some investors don't dismiss it as a no hope penny share.
Or perhaps its safer just to dump it into the Nationwide at 1%!

Hi Ash
You are in a class of your own with your accounting knowledge, so all I can do is thank you for the time you have spent writing this .
Having re read several RNS in the last few days I agree about the decision making in 'new' JV. There is a Board of 4, 2 from Ozaltin and one each from the other partners, most decisions requiring a simple majority. Lets hope it works as well as the previous JV seems to have. Was surprised to read the part about expansion of the production facility, didn't mention about how that was being achieved or financed. I suppose an expansion of throughput makes sense as the grades deteriorate and Tavsan production is eventually phased in (I assume it is still the plan to have a 'basic' plant at Tavsan and final processing of a concentrate at Kiziltepe).
I was concerned about the deal AAU have for reimbursement of exploration costs, with costs plus a bonus of 2 x where reserves (for that prospect) increase by 10%. Had me worried where a small or no increase in reserves was apparent, however on re- reading it seems costs are covered in that event.
I think we expect a decrease in SP to reflect the large Special Dividend. With no immediate boost of revenue due to production (I think the next is likely to be a debt free Tavsan maybe 4 years away?) I can see a long period of navel gazing, unless there is a dramatic movement in gold and/or a bonanza strike. Purely my opinion but I suspect the SP will go into another long sleep.

Great reply Ash, thank you. I personally not concerned with being paid a vast dividend, originally it was implied that only a proportion of the $5m received from the NE Turkish assets would be distributed - now it seems 50% of the net total that will be distributed. I am concerned more about the costs/ tax due to the effect on the net assets and hence SP.
Cant decide about the SP really, post dividend assets will be much reduced and we all remember the SP stuck in the 1.5p - 2p range during 2019 when AAU owned far more. I assume the new structure will not be in place until, say, April - in which case AAU will enjoy the 50:50 split of debt free Red Rabbit for a few more months -also assume that, even if not at a year end, accounts for Zenit will be drawn up to coincide with the restructure to enable this?

Anyone know what level of tax/ costs are to be incurred out of the c.£27.5m received from the asset sales?

Not a huge deal, but better than a sell! Quite surprised at the SP reaction this morning.

Someone on the board yesterday suggested that they were expecting a RNS this morning. It just appeared, a little later than expected but at least it has appeared

I took your advice a couple of weeks back banker, put money into BMN and BSN and have no complaints! Seemed odd to be able to get 119.8p when the bid is 120p, This is a sad end to this company, I shall forever condemn the Board.

Mulletman
i don't really understand your gripe. I'm certainly not a self -proclaimed expert here, though I think I would have satisfied your criteria as one over on the Ariana board a little while ago.
I feel very lucky that there such well researched individuals willing to share their hard earned knowledge when I feel I know relatively little. It is unfair to expect others to weigh up many companies in the same sector and offer a recommendation to make money off their research

Lets keep this going Thincat. Its becoming quite an active board!
Any other Epwin holders care to chip in?!

Agreed papertub. Demand for Lithium is beyond doubt for the immediate future electrification of transportation, and Governmental support for that electrification is itself beyond doubt at least in the richer economies. Whether alternatives will be found to the use of lithium is also beyond doubt - I cannot see lithium being the only viable, or best, battery material for more than a generation if that. Look at the advance of technology in 20th century. Having a 250 year resource seem to me pretty pointless, once profitable the operation needs to be massively ramped up assuming Mexican regulations allow. Just a personal opinion!

It is a fair question, but the conclusion I have reached is that the funding requirements are not that great, there is ganfecg who would have done meticulous due diligence before making their commitment, and an expanding market for the (hopefully incrreasingly valuable) product. Plus the mining itself is open pit. SXX was far more debateable for me, with a hugely complex and expensive tunnel to build (the sort of project that always seems to eat up more investment and time that is estimated) and some questioned the actual market for the product.

Indeed, I'm well up for that but wonder when we will old fossils like us be allowed out?
Trouble is with the Gantt chart (and I was very keen on it as it represented the various operational strands in a visual way) is that if Dr.S wants to avoid it being used to dangle him with then he would be tempted to make it very conservative - and those conservative timescales would probably put off potential new investors which will drive the SP. As you know I wasn't very keen on the deal, still not to be honest, and a meaningful Gantt chart is even more difficult to achieve now that AAU is a minority partner in the exploitation of all of its assets. The boot is very much on the foot of BigCo (cant remember what they are called), they are in a position to dictate pace other than in Cyprus.

Ha Van, the much discussed Gantt chart! I remember asking him face to face if we could have it back and he (very pleasantly) said no! Reasoning was that it give a rope to hang the directors with.
As you say, stay safe, just seen the terrible Covid figures for today that saddens me greatly.

Hi friend!
Yes, I've been here a long time and happy to see how it pans out.
I live near Telford where there is a window manufacturing unit that was called Profile 22 once upon a time. Up again today I see.

I wish you the all the best with that, hope you achieve it!

Misread that bassguy. Thought you said just topped up not popped up! £280, 000 top up, a guy with means!