Member Info for johnpwh

Hi Kluck
I don't infer the same thing. What has GF got to lose by continuing to encourage S/H to vote? If the Mexican decision comes then they progress the bid on current terms with all of the Yes votes received. If the decision comes in negative, or is delayed beyond the stop date, then the bid collapses and it doesn't matter how many have voted. In short there seems no downside to discouraging further voting for acceptence

Kluck
I agree and would expect initially a poor reaction on Monday. However as people realise how much effect the 'anchor' has had then I would hope that it will rise again if not during the day then during the week

Which broker was that hamster? Obviously not iWeb!

RB
Cant disagree with you. 80p would double my investment, I could live with that if I'm honest. I don't see the appeal in a long term investment here with a non sleeping JV partner who clearly wants full control

Hi amunro. How have you voted against? Surely you just vote for or abstain?
I have mixed feelings with the Chinese connection. The cons are that they seem to want to dominate the Li market, and the offer is clearly not the best as it has acted as an anchor on the SP at a time when the commodity price has boomed.
The pros On the other hand, I believe, are that the Chinese will get this project done wheras the useless BCN BOD that we all know and love(!) seem to talk the talk but contemplate their navels most of the time. Plus of course there is the real question of security which I think should be taken seriously. Put it this way, who would prefer Secker giving potential baddies a lecture or some (probably) ex-military Chinese security 'advisors' telling them that messing with them would be a very, very bad idea. Unlike other world powers the Chinese don't really bother with the niceties of diplomacy and the law.
The ideal would be the pre May JV, but we have to face that's long gone. Without that the best would, for me at least, be an increased offer at about the £1 level

tomcat
What do you expect will happen to the SP on Monday due to the RNS?

I rarely comment here as my depth of knowledge doesn't compare to many. However Pdub I do always read your comments. I am sorry to hear of your illness and sincerely wish you the best with the ongoing treatment. I'm sure that sentiment is shared by many

Matthew
Not sure what to think. Could anti trust rubber stamping have anything to do with the current political nationalisation questions? Even that silly deramping article earlier (usual stuff that gets put out every few months) admitted that political opposition to Li exploitation only affected new licences, as far as I am aware licence conditions have been complied with at Sonora. What do we expect on Monday?

I've wondered exactly the same thing. When someone like Fidelity or M&G report then it must be holdings in Funds they administer. But not the likes of Barclays.
Do we know of any others like iWeb who haven't even bothered to contact nominee shareholders yet?

Chameleonman I am neither clueless or a sheep. I am also not King Canute, which is why I take the view I do.

Sorry Matthew, I didn't see you had addressed the M&G point

Matthew
The answer to your question is Yes, I have reconsidered and am happy to resist voting as I think a higher offer is likely. BUT I am likely to vote with M&G as I think that will carry the vote especially once the nominees are counted - which I suspect is not the case at present. I have too many shares to risk becoming a minority S/H, if this was just a dabble it would be different.
Mr C
I don't see anywhere that M&G has accepted. All that I can see from the RNS is that there is a LOI from M&G, which is unchanged from the time the offer was announced. LOIs aren't binding from my research.

regarding acceptances, I think the nominees may be an influence here. I have just come off the phone to iWeb (HBOS) reminding them that they have still not issued a corporate action. They say it will be issued next week. Probably.

Would I be right in guessing that the SP fluctuations are related to the Covid situation in Russia?

They could improve slightly by distributing all of the ZNWD shares held by BCN. But that wont raise the offer much, They could pay a cash dividend from reserves but that doesn't make much sense as an incentive as, like the ZNWD shares, any dividend goes to everyone not just those accepting the bid.
So an increase would have to be just that, an increase from the 67.5p from GF, and as Jam says in his excellent posts that will mean delay while their S/Hs and Government get involved again.
I would like to see the JV getting serious about groundworks etc to satisfy the Mexican Government that this is a concession being sufficiently developed to be sure of avoiding this Nationalisation threat.
All in my opinion of course,

CM
Are you expecting them to increase the bid subject to going back to their own shareholders (and possibly Government) for further approvals? That could take this well into next year.
But I do agree with you in principle, if acceptances stay at this level and M&G don't commit then, as I posted yesterday, it is beginning to look as if a higher bid could be offered. Just for fun, what does everyone predict that would be. I will go for 85p

Mr C
I may be wrong, but we have irrevocable undertakings from Directors in respect of their shares, and a Letter of Intent from M&G according to the latest update. My understanding is that a LOI is rarely, if ever, binding. It is just an agreement in principle. Give the Li price growth since the offer was updated/increased in late August then maybe M&G are refusing to make their commitment firmer? Who knows.
I suppose one way to enhance the bid would be for GF to throw their share of the ZNWD shares into the pot, but given they only have 29$+% of the BCN shares that would only imply an increase in the offer by between 2 and 3 pence

Good point Dee which I was too Dim to pick up on. As it is a dividend then even if the offer becomes unconditional those not voting in favour, and so retain their shares (unless 90% acceptance is reached) will get the ZNWD shares.

Oh dear. Motley Fool is advocating purchase of BP shares. Always a worry when they recommend.
https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/10/16/for-saturday-i-was-right-about-the-bp-share-price-heres-what-im-doing-now/

I am beginning to expect that the offer will be increased to secure M&Gs support, because GF know that their support is crucial. With them on board the bid will probably quickly be unconditional - and once that happens resistance is likely to melt away due to the possibility of becoming a minority shareholder, possibly in a private company.
3 weeks ago I wouldn't have thought it possible that take up would be so low, even with known resistance to the offer I would have expected several % acceptances by now. As already noted I'm not sure what the mechanism would be to enable that - but GF have already bypassed a second S/H approval by getting the ZNWD shares offered as a specie dividend. Now the vote has been passed to allow payment of a dividend then perhaps this evenings earlier idea of a cash distribution (via a special divi) could indeed be a solution? M&G seem to be delaying and they know the effect they are having.