Member Info for JohnNth

Ageens...There is this misconception within Ukraine that they drove out Russians from outside Kiev and other areas in the west Ukraine back in March. Actually, Russians invading from many flanks and many areas at the begining in Feb/March was a tactical diversion to keep Ukrainian forces occupied allowing Russians to move into Donbas area and establish bases. As soon as Russians did just that, they withdrew from many areas. Russia was never interested in whole of Ukraine; only areas where there is large ethnic Russian population. Once Russians control whole of Donbas, they will call the operation over and stay dug-in until there is peace agreement.

Ageens...you sound very much like Zelensky. Each morning he wakes up and says to his people we're going to win. Each night he goes to bed having lost even more land to Russia,

Most realistic assessment of war and peace in Ukraine.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2022/07/13/ukraine-must-grasp-peace-from-jaws-of-unwinnable-war/

US debt to China equates to approx 5% US GDP and less than 1% of total US wealth. Nonetheless, China is gaining ground on US and will eclipse it (if not already happened) very soon. Prior to industrial revolution, generally speaking, if you had twice the people of another country you produced twice the wealth. The industrial revolution introduced technology and business practices and this enabled the west to pull significantly ahead. China (against it's communist ideology) have embraced western business practices so all things being equal, should end up with an economy relative to it's population comparable to advanced countries in the west in the not too distant future. This means an economy up to 3 times the size of US based on current population.

What's happening to POG is indicative of how these sanctions against Russia are working; they're hurting the west more than it is hurting Russia. In this instance, UK shareholders will lose hundreds of millions and the asset will become wholly owned by a Russian entity at a knock down price. Surely, the santions were not meant to enrich Russia at the expense of the rest of the world?

It could be due to after effects of Bojo getting kicked out of office in UK. Bojo was the chief warmonger egging Zelensky on to fight Russia to the last Ukranian. With Bojo gone, chances of peace should increase substantially...we hope!

Pokerchips...thanks for the link. I'm sure Russia can live without Lego and Levis. Well over 90% companies listed as moving out have only sales operations in Russia and I'm sure Chinese are moving in to fill the gap. Winners will be the Chinese and losers will be all those moving out, especially the Germans. One thing is for certain, it won't affect Putin's approach one bit.

Talk now is that conflict could go in the freeze mode once Russia has full control of Donbas which IMO is approx 8 weeks away. Russia will stop firing at this point (unless provoked) as Putin declares operation over. This will mean FXPO can then export without disruption by rail to europe which accounts for approx 50% of their business. I beleive this percentage will rise substantially in the coming months and years as EU have granted Ukraine tariff free trade.
As regards seabourne trade, the Ukraine ports will remain closed in the near future until there is peace agreement. However, in their recent RNS, FXPO did say that it is exploring resumption of their seabourne trade using neighbouring countries like Romania, and that progress on establishing such routes was at an advanced stage. This means FXPO can get back to full trading even without there being peace agreement in place with Russia; although transportation costs will be higher.

Pokerchips...you're assessment sounds accurate for a change. Germany wants Ukraine to strike peace as a matter of urgency. Russia is in the top 4 biggest markets for German goods so high energy costs and sanctions on Russia isn't going down well in Germany. German trade figures (recording their first ever trade deficit in over 30 years) out yesterday bears testimony to this. And in wider world, inflation is running rampant also affecting German exports as people become preoccupied with the most basic needs. In fact, in Germany there is even a fear of rapid de-industrialisation unless the conflict is brought to an end soon.
Putin is the agressor but he is in the ascendancy whilst Zelensky is proving to be fk-up tool; having fkd up BIG time in letting conflict start in the first place, he is now trying to win back losses using his population as pokerchips. He doesn't stop dreaming of victory over Russia which isn't going to happen. Russia will stop once it controls Donbas, and according to press reports, the conflict could then go into a freeze mode. Puting will stop firing altogether and this will affect support for Ukraine, who will then be forced to negotiate as the world will no longer be able to bear the hardships the war is inflicting. But thanks to an incompetent comedian in charge of the country, they will have to concede lot more. Oh lastly, Bojo won't be around either to shower Zelensky with praise and shed loads of UK taxpayers money. IMO this conflict will end lot sooner than people think.

Havoc3852...you're bang on. I think Russia believes it can fight a nuclear war and win, given the land it occupies and it's hypersonic misslies. This thing about lower yield of Russian nuclear missiles resulting from degraded plutonium is pure speculation.

Matthew125...I agree, the war is already over-priced in IMO, but iron ore prices are sliding so things not looking good at the very present.

Pokerchips...you are wrong. Zelensky made it clear to Putin and Russia Ukraine will not concede an inch of it's territory and that included Crimea. This was a non starter for Putin who had vowed on taking power 20 years ago that he will reunite Crimea back with Russia. There were other issues as well. Zelensky miscalculated Putin's resolve, misread military assistance he was promised by US (Zelensky thought NATO would intervene physically) and misread intelligence immediately prior to invasion. Zelensky could have tried harder when Lavrov reached out to Ukraine for 'serious' talks literally few days before invasion but Zelensky did not like what Russia was looking for and ignored request. Zelensky fkd up BIG time!

Equanimity...you sound like Zelensky Mk 2. Each morning, Zelensky wakes up and says we're going to win this war and ends the day losing more territory. However, I do agree with your FXPO assessment. The company has great future, especially now that Ukraine is on a path to EU membership. And the Russkies are not interested in Poltava region either so mines are safe. Although, FXPO's traditional route for seabourne trade through the port of Yuzhny using Dniper river which flows through Kherson region and which Russia now controls could be an issue.

Pokerchips...you're missing the point. Russia is the aggressor in the conflict but Ukraine had plenty of opportunities to stop this aggression. Russian demands were not unreasonable and Ukraine will have had to give up Crimea cos they didn't own it until recently and they didn't pay anything for it to gain ownership. Russia wanted it back..full stop. Like I said, if Zelensky could set the clock back, he would agree to all of Russia's 'initial' demands, but now he couldn't given the levels of deaths, destruction and displacement. Zelensky misread, misunderstood and mis-managed the whole situation and now finds himself in a very difficult position. He is in a casino having gambled and lost so much and is now trying to win it all back using Ordinary Ukranians as pokerchips. He feels it is his only choice. Before conflict started, he would have negotiated with Russia with one hand tied behind his back. When the fighting stops, he will be negotiating with both his hands tied back and a bullet pointing to his head. Zelensky is finished, and he knows it. Unfortunately, still many more thousands of Ukranians will pay for his gamble with their lives. He should listen to the EU and not warmongers like US and UK which have a history of waging illegal wars and have an ulterior motive (weaken Russia/China axis; weaken EU by loading it up with Ukraine totally destroyed; in US politicians pressured by lobiies representing arms industry to inflame the conflict etc etc) in wanting Ukraine to fight on when there's no hope whatsoever.

Snudge1234...you're bang on; Zelensky has this pipe dream that with more weapons from NATO countries, he is going to push back the Russkis (before the onset of winter) to it's borders, which will strengthen it's negotiating hand and then have peace talks. As I've said many times before, Zelensky has fkd up big time right from the outset and he is gambling again with lives and livelihoods of ordinary Ukranians. Russia has won this war on all fronts; hot war, economic war, and psychological war (things like Putin has cancer in his balls, Russia have lost 60k soldiers etc etc) have not worked either. Thinking from FXPO angle 'only', the sooner Ukraine accepts it has lost the war and engages Russia at peace talks the better. Press reports indicates this position will be arrived at about end August.

Encouraging update today from Polymetal International. Let's hope something similar is in the pipeline for POG soon.

Pokerchips..."not letting Germany fill up its gas reserves before winter": I for once will agree with you. This together with rampant inflation impacting globally and collateral damage eg. risk of massive migration of populations to richer countries driven by hunger etc etc all points to pressure on ending the conflict asap...by end of August, only because Zelensky thinks he needs 2 more moths to kick the Russians out of Ukraine using heavy weapons supplied by NATO. There is no appetite for this war to continue globally as rulling governments starts to tumble one after the other with elections due to high cost of living. Boris's behaviour vis a vis Ukraine is unique cos he is struggling at home on myriad of issues and that elections in UK is more than 2 years away.

Pokerchips...Putin is winning and he isn't losing anything as long as he is on Ukranian soil. You're missing the point. I'm saying Zelensky misread and miscalculated Putin in not addressing Russian claims before the conflict. He should have engaged in meaningful discussions on issues of concern instead of ignoring them altogether. He also misread US UK intelligence supplied to him before the invasion. He gambled and unfortunately ordinary Ukranians paid the price. Ukraine have no chance of getting Russians out and will now have to concede more in any peace talks. Zelensky has dug a whole for himself. Instead of engaging Russia diplomatically, he is gambling again (egged on by Boris and US) to win back the losses by putting firm hopes on heavy weaponary he's been promised by the west, and again using ordinary Ukranians as pokerchips.

Pokerchips...I am the same person and I have a sizeable holdings in FXPO. I also believe the peace is much nearer than people think. Yesterday, 3 top EU leaders were in Kiev to meet Zelensky., who described the meeting as 'historical' and nothing more, He did not look happy, I believe due to pressure from EU to make peace so that Ukraine can then join EU membership accession process. Zelensky is pulled from 2 sides; US UK wanting him to fight on and EU asking him to make peace. Like any leader, he wants peace but knows he will have to concede. But with so much deaths and destruction, and public opinion against conceding terrotory, he has ended up between a rock and a hard place.
As regards FXPO, they are on a win win trajectory going forward. They will be allowed tarriff free access to EU now for the forseeable future and they will have a huge role to play in rebuilding Ukraine where they will need shed loads of iron. In the meantime, in it's latest RNS they did say they were exploring other routes to the sea through neigbouring countries, so we wait for more updates. Disruptions to railways was expected as Russia will want to stop Ukrainian armaments reaching front lines, and it will stay this way until the war ends.

Evanescent...I recall you recently said you had put me on your ignore list, but you clearly cannot keep away...can you? Reding your posts (I recommend people do so before making judgement on my post), I note you have a habbit of shooting from the hips. You repeatedly prove yourself to be low on facts and high in abusing others.