Member Info for JohnNth

bb...Kherson is on the west side of Dnipro and the attack from the north right at the begining of the conflict was a distraction to allow Russian forces to move into the east of Ukraine and consolidate. As soon as they did that, Russia withdrew from the north. Russia never had intentions to go to Kiev or wider Ukraine; only areas majority inhabited by ethnic Russians. Military planning................................................

Lot is made of Ukraine recapturing territory from Russia. Actually, what happened was Russian forces captured territory on west side of the Dnipro river which they found it difficult to supply and hence decided to make strategic withdrawal to positions east of the river; Ukraine haven't captured any more territory since. Zelensky and Ukraine got buoyed by this but we will see if they make any more progress; top US military brass at the time reckoned Ukraine should enter negotiation on the back of this 'success' but Zelensky and Ukraine had other ideas.
Further, IF in the unlikely circumstance Ukraine go onto recapture lands in the east, the local ethnic Russians are not likely to give them an easy ride...........think Donbas is set to either forever remain Russian or have a 'very' high degree of autonomy inside Ukraine going forward. Local ethnic Russians do not want the likes of Azov Battalion back carrying out atrocities.

One thing is very clear about this war, Russia is not putting out upbeat assessment of teh war right from the begining. We had UK Ben Wallace saying last March that Russia was losing when it went onto occupy 20% of territory. That Putin was suffering from cancer. top generals are plotting to overthrow him etc etc. If you were looking objectively at this war, you would conclude that Russia was winning both the hot war and the economic war cos Russia occcupies 20% Ukraine, the Ruble haven't collapsed and inflation in Russia is less than that in the west. In teh process, Russia have fkd us all over with high cost of living crisis and that is a victory for them.

Point I'm trying to make is that benefit of hard currency isn't just limited to printing a dollar and nicking dollar worth of wealth from other countries. It continues to deliver benefits as every USD transaction have to go through New York where US banks benefit by charging a levy, and this could and have exceeded more than another dollar worth of benefits over time and in perpetuity until USD reigns supreme. Right now, USD acounts for approx 58% of all international transactions which is about 30% less than it was 30 years ago.

SageofOldham...impact by the US is being felt now eg. each time a USD transaction happens anywhere globally, it has to go through New York where the administering bank charges a levy. So with fewer and fewer international transactions in USD (eg, India paying Russia in rupees and therefore bypasses USD), this steady income for banks in the US is reduced. Eventually, when USD becomes a lesser currency, the dollars held around the world will start returning to the US as they have a claim on the US economy. At that point, it would create inflation and to tackle that US would have to cut expenditure...welcome to the real world time for US.

@Foor...smack on, and US doesn't help itself by imposing sanctions either, and they do that to help likes of Israel against Iran which confers no benefit to US and leeches off US for $billions each year. The final death knell will be administered by Saudi Arabia and OPEC when it finally declares end to petrodollar; from then on US will have to start balancing its books.
Going forward, gold will reign supreme and POLY is the best value for money asset right now.

"I only hear news reports about people returning and how they are making the best of returning."

https://cream-migration.org/ukraine-detail.htm?article=3573#:~:text=People%20fleeing%20Ukraine&text=Around%208.1%20million%20people%20have,since%20returned%20to%20the%20country.

Support for UKraine have ben massive. Only reason we don't feel it is it comes out of international development budget which is really meant for the poorer countries, and not going to countries to fund wars. So it has come at teh expense of the poor and hungery elsewhere.

Russia is too important a partner for both China and India, and no amount of US economic sanctions (economic imperialism) will sway them from doing business with Russia. Countries that are heeding US EU sanctions are those which are very close friends of US or who needs their protection; and even amongst them there are mutineers like Israel which takes shed loads of US taxpayer money each year but still cooperates with Russia in all manner of terms. US is in fast decline and no amount of help to Ukraine will reverse that; especially with sleepy Joe at the helm!
Sooner Zelensky and Ukraine stop treating the war as comedy act, the better it is for Ukraine. They could be on a prosperity ladder immediately on war ending with EU membesrhip, but Zelensky doesn't have the power when it comes to anything war related, military or security. This is the realm of the die hard right wing elements; they will decide when the war ends, and it will only end when they feel defeated which does not look good for ordinary Ukranians. Zelensky is the global face of Ukraine; a useful idiot who brings in money and arms, but that is just about it.

Currently, the force is with Putin cos he's sitting on 20% of Ukraine. Also, there's elections coming up in the UK and US within next 2 years and the war ending would give the world economy a massive boost. If you were Sunak, you would know it would give him a realistic chance of even winning the next election; something he has yet to prove. Germany and France have lost a massive market in Russia through sanctions which the Chinsee have swept up and are now consolidating; hence Olaf Scholz visit to India last week to try win some business for Germany. But India is no hurry to end the war cos of cheap oil and gas paid for in rupees.
In the meantime, Ukrainians are getting it in the neck, and they can't be fighting for ever. Ukranians are leaving Ukraine in droves, there's no point winning the war when there's no one left to inhabit the land.
Both sides want to end the war but would not want to negotiate unless they are strong going into negotiations.Barring a miracle, I think we may witness the bloodiest of battles in the war in coming months before 'serious' negotiations begin sometimes next August

BUYSELLREPEAT...I don't think Russia wants to keep Donbas, but they currently insist on it as a bargaining chip. Russia would accept Donbas to gain autonomy inside Ukraine along lines of UK home nations; possible a little more like more control of their foreign policy which UK home nations do not have. As regards Crimea, Ukraine will have to cede the territory; either Russia takes it altogether or have it on a long lease (say 200 years), which would in theory mean Ukraine still owns it. Of course Russia will insist on Ukraine being neutral and non NATO which is not seen as an issue in Ukraine.
Such an agreement would enable both sides to claim victory.

bb..cash flow is negative in Russia cos of massive capital expenditure undertaken by POLY and accelarated in recent month, which means the projects will come to production sooner than otherwise. POLY can sell Russian gold and get paid in rubles or convert to rubles. Expenditure in Russia is in rubles and there is enough cash flow generated to meet operating costs, pay bank loans and invest. The gold produced in Russia is sold through channels outside western sanctions eg. to China and that will continue. There is no risk of POLY Russian business facing cash shortfall whcih can become 'critical' in the near future. If push come to shove, POLY can put moratorium on cappex and divert cash to pay the banks.

Russian business is delivering operating surplus but is cash flow negative due to huge capital expenditure developing new mines inside Russia. POLY can easily impose moratorium on capex to service Russian debt with Russian money if it became necessary. Right now, POLY is mining gold in Russia, paying Russian debt with Russian money and spending surplus Russian cash to develop Russian mines; pace of development of Russian mines have been accelarated in the past 12 months cos POLY is not able to bring cash out of Russia. Russian business is totally safe from any Russian banks; risk arises largely from any new UK/EU sanctions and potential Russian reaction to that.

bb...I agree with you; US will fight Russia to the last Ukranian.

This war is not going to linger on cos it's in europe. Ukraine is getting destroyed, bleeding and emptying on an industrial scale and Russia is bleeding and possibly regime survival issues as well. Whilst both may talk tough, deep beneath is a an urgent desire for peace. Question is, will the US allow Ukraine to strike a peace deal?

Yes, just took a break from work and there he is, a resident PEST...where's that bug zapper!

CINE...death by a million cuts it seems.......

bb keeps pedalling crap about Kaz, currency strength etc. Let me say, international miners have been operating out of South Africa for decades and investors in them have not had any issues, cos they produce commodities priced in international hard currencies and valued/demanded internationally just like gold. South African Rand have fallen over 600% against USD in the past 3 decades but that hasn't affected companies like Anglo American which is heavily exposed to SA from doing business.
Kaz potentially has nearly as much resources as South Africa and is more strategically located and a better run country. In fact, Kaz is a huge success story of countries freeing itself from the old Soviet Union and recording big real term rises in GDP without any help from the likes of EU. It is now putting down foundations for financial services to complement its wider economy. Potentially, Kaz is another Dubai, rich in many resources on the eastern edge of europe bordering China and Russia

Oil trade in non-US currencies a threat - Biden visit to Ukraine

Biden's visit should also be seen as an attempt to showcase the US as the centre of military powers as well as global commerce. The rise of alternative power blocs across the world is not palatable to US hegemony.
Nuclear power and oil trade are some of the deciding factors when it comes to analysing a nation and its influence on the world. But in the past few decades, there's been a shift in the world order, with the US losing the power concentration, a situation exacerbated by the rise of China and the increasing assertion of Russia under President Vladimir Putin.
In January, Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest crude oil exporter, said it is open to discussing oil trade settlements in currencies other than the US dollar. In an interview with Bloomberg TV at the Davos gathering, Saudi Minister of Finance, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, weighed in on the possibility of oil trade in non-US currencies, which should a shocker for America. Increasingly, there's talk of energy trade in the Chinase yuan, Russian rouble and Indian rupee, as well as other currencies. This is a fundamental threat to the supremacy of the US dollar as the currency of global trade.

On second thought, don't want that happening just yet, cos that'll send me broke!