Member Info for JohnLewis79

Ftse All Share Index Ranking as at close 2 August 2024.

1) Azn £195•5bn

2) Shell £179•4bn

3) Hsbc £121•3bn

4) Ulvr £121•1bn

5) Bhp £106•5bn

255) Fidelity China £1,001bn

500) Msi £174•3m

584) AssetCo £54•1m

A day after the dramatic 1034 points sell off on the Dow investors piled back seeking oversold counters. This was the 15th time since records began the Dow has posted a 4 fig daily loss.

Comments from some Fed Officials pushing back the idea that weaker than expected July jobs data means the economy is headed for a recession spurred traders to raise prices on hopes of a soft landing should their be one. Now most think there's a 75% chance of a •50% basis rate cut in Sept.

The Nikkei's 3200 points bounce back on Tuesday pleased Wall St watchers as all the major S&P sectors ended higher with real estate, financials and tech up the most. Nvidia put on $4 to $104 on news its Blackwell (Ai) chip is on track to ramp in 2Q after reports of delays. But Apple ($205) continues to slide (9% this month) after Buffet reduced his holding by $50bn to $84bn. He also trimmed his holding in Bank of Ameruca.

Volume on US exchanges was 13•5bn above the 20 day average and the S&P posted 12 new 52 wk highs, 7 new lows.

Nyse data

Issues 2876

Advances 2131

Declines 675

U/c 70

NH 49

NL 54

T/vol(bn) 4•7

-------------

DJ +294 (38,998)

SP +54 (5240)

NS +183 (18,078)

R2 +16 (1323)

WTI $73

10ytb 3•914%

----------

MSCI(W) -67 (3381)

Gold Bugs +4 (287)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 28. Brent $77.

Gold $2392. Copper $3•994.

Palm $1035. Silver $27•190.

$1•271. €1•165.

FF +105. DF +260.

Morning all.

Dead cat bounce at open.

Ftse called 100 better at open

will have shorters of MSi in a bit of a panic methinks? While I think it will be more of a dead cat bounce than a 100p upswing either way I'd rather be on the sidelines watching!

Nyse data

Issues 2888

Advances 207

Declines 2658

U/c 23

NH 42

NL 221

T/vol(bn) 5•3

-------------

DJ -1034 (38,703)

SP -160 (5186)

NS -546 (17,895)

R2 -44 (1307)

WTI $74

10ytb 3•850%

-----------

MSCI(W) +106 (3449)

Gold Bugs -10 (283)

----------------

Latest :- Vix 39. Brent $77.

Gold $2410. Copper $3•990.

Palm $1050. Silver $27•385.

$1•277. €1•166.

FF +102. DF +405.

Stock markets in Asia have rebounded after the bigest falls ever seen in Tokyo yesterday. The Nikkei is up 2376 (7%) but way off days high of 34,912 (+3454) points pulling all other exchanges higher. Singapore stubbornly resists the relief rally.

In New York the DJ has fallen 2140 points since last Thursday on recessionary fears in the main and big cap Tech stocks being dumped after such a historic rise in values these last 18 months. The likes of Nvidia, Apple, Google....etc were hammered but recovered somewhat after hours. Some wag opined "just what the Doctor ordered".....

This morning things are almost back to normal the London mrkt is expected to open 100+ higher and the Dow 400+ but ways to go to get back to par (40,843). Noone is deceived by the bounce back as being nothing more than dealers closing shorts and some pis bottom fishing for oversold stocks. Check where the market is at the end of the month to get a better perspective.

Some expect an emergency cut in rates by the Fed of •50bp. I think its unlikely though they might cut by •50 bp in September if this disorderly mrkt volatility continues.

Morning all.

On a very volatile days trading MSi shares traded between 1090 and 960 eventually closing at 1000p (nos below).

Recession fears in the US was the catalyst for investors fleeing the mrkt as the Dow fell 746 as London closed.

Siren calls the Dow is headed 50% lower doesn't help skittish investors. Tbh I'm def in the bear camp mainly because the US Govt are borrowing $1tn every 100 days. Eventually they will have to cut spending, then what? Jobs will disappear and company profits will suffer.

Defence stocks might hold up better than most but would you bet on it?

And remember the historic p/e ratio on the 500 is around 16x earnings. Currently on the S&P its 35×. Twice before this has happened. In 1929 stocks crashed 80% and the .com bubble bursting in 1999 took the 500 down 50%.

Sp 1000

Trades 125

T/vols 58,288

Buys 19,394

Sells 48,894

Sell % 83

Evening all.

Well right on cue the Dow called 1145 lower at open.

At this rate the Dow might open 1000 down to around 38,700 that's still c.1000 points better than last years close. However the spectre of 'correction' territory (36,531) is not far away, last seen back in early Dec 2023.

Incidentally MSi hit a record high (979) on that date!

Morning Tav I think war considerations take a backseat during volatile trading sessions. Losing money is more important than the chance of someone dropping a bomb on you!

A more up to date breakdown on MSi trades etc..., this morning. The ftse is down c.170 points as most foresaw.

MSi hit a days low of 1000 to 1030. At 9:00 am.

Vol 19,679

Buys 2604

Sells 17,075

Nos 45

Sp 1000

The Nikkei has just closed 4451 (12•4%) points lower at 31,458. London is called 130+ down atm. Those holding cash will have some bargains being offered this morning.

Stocks across Asia are registering big losses this morning the Nikkei posting it's second largest drop in history and its bigest slump since 2020. At one point the 225 was down 2500 and a month ago the 225 registered its highest ever close at 40,731.

No sector has been spared investor wrath after the bloodbath on Wall St. Banks are particularly hardest hit. Losses of 15-20% are seen are seen in industrials Mitsui and Mitsubishi Heavy. However despite the 225's huge falls of 8%, Hong Kong is slightly down and Shanghai has bounced off a 40 point drop to trade up a few points. SK & Taiwan have followed Japan with drops of c.8% in late trade. Dow futures have soured the volatile mood calling a 400+ fall at open today.

In Sydney the ASX200 has fallen 3% after hitting a low of 7677. All sectors are in the red led by Banks and mining stocks. With an hour to close the ASX200 is at its lowest for the session down 263 and just above breakeven for the year. Pacificas have not been spared, all lower by around 3% with only KL in the black for the year so far.

Latest :- Vix 23. Brent $78.

Gold $2439. Copper $4•138.

Palm $1050. Silver $28•725.

$1•279. $1•170. 10ytb 3•752%

FF -95. DF -351.

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2869

Advances 702

Declines 2128

U/c 39

NH 158

NL 116

T/vol(bn) 5•2

------------

DJ -611 (39,737)

SP -100 (5347)

NS -450 (18,441)

R2 -47 (1350)

WTI $74

10ytb 3•793%

-----------

MSCI(W) -54 (3518)

Gold Bugs -7 (293)

---------------

Close :- Vix 23. Brent $78.

Gold $2443. Copper $4•128.

Palm $1050. Silver $28•685.

Yen 147. Yuan 7•16.

$1•280. €1•173.

If past form is anything to go by mrkts will bounce back on Monday. Futures are calling the Dow 100+ points lower on Monday. Doom'n gloom merchants are saying the US is heading for a recession. I think the data is too conflicting. Whatever your stance holding for the long'term has proven to be the best strategy for investors since time immemorial.

Yesterday investors took profits during a sell off of 'toppy' high tech counters. The Nsdq was down 623 at one time is in 'correction' territory but is still 10% ahead this year.

Intel ($21) slumped 26% its worst day in 50 years as profits fell far short of forecasts, a suspended dividend and forecast losses for the next Q did the damage. Amazon fell 9% on weaker revenues but Apple bucked the trend topping analysts forecasts. The stock held steady at $220.

Rates could now be cut by 50 bp in Sept as many fear the Fed has kept rates too high for too long risking a recession despite the US economy still growing.

Sellers got the upper hand this week on nervousness over the slide in global mrkts giving weak holders the excuse to sell and bank profits. Stocks in Tokyo were hit hard the Nikkei falling nearly 6%. It's worst day since March 2020 and the Dow slumped 700 in the first hour on worse than expected factory output and weak jobs data. Investors took the hint and bailed out.

MSi vols and trades topped last weeks but the shares fell to a day low of 1060 as buyers decided a wait and see policy as the best option. At the close the shares were down 47 at 1060-1088. An impressive 24% gain on the year heading into H2 didn't go unrecognised.

Wk 31

----

Sp 1060

L/y 660

H 1135

L 493

7/88 113

Trds 110

T/vol 67,000

Buy 28,200

Sell 38,800

Sell 58%

Av trd 609

Ytd

MSi +24%

100 +6%

250 +6%

All +7%

Aim +3%

Gold +19%

Oil -0•34%

Palm +11%

----

Morning all.

Nyse data

--------

Issues 2869

Advances 926

Declines 1897

U/c 46

NH 208

NL 53

T/vol(bn) 4•7

-----------

DJ -495 (40,348)

SP -76 (5447)

NS -472 (18,891)

R2 -39 (1397)

WTI $77

10ytb 3•967%

----------

MSCI(W) -54 (3518)

Gold Bugs -4 (301)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 19. Brent $80.

Gold $2457. Copper $4•081.

Palm $1037. Silver $28•885.

$1•272. €1•178.

FF -14. DF -200.

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2876

Advances 1762

Declines 1049

U/c 65

NH 369

NL 22

T/vol(bn) 4•5

-----------

DJ +99 (40,843)

SP +86 (5522)l

NS +566 (19,362)

R2 +8 (1436)

WTI $78

10ytb 4•056%

-----------

MSCI(W) u/c (3572)

Gold Bugs +8 (305)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $81.

Gold $2444. Copper $4•183.

Palm $1085. Silver $29•005.

$1•285. €1•187.

FF +27. DF +96.

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2869

Advances 1728

Declines 1035

U/c 106

NH 218

NL 25

T/vol(bn) 3•8

------------

DJ +203 (40,743)

SP -27 (5436)

NS -263 (18,796)

R2 +9 (1428)

WTI $76

10ytb 4•148%

----------

MSCI(W) -12 (3514)

Gold Bugs +1 (297)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 18. Brent $79.

Gold $2419. Copper $4•135.

Palm $1080. Silver $28•695.

$1•285. €1•187.

FF +50. DF +13.

In stark contrast to the Dow the Nsdq ended down 263 at (18796) its lowest closing in over a month as Msoft ($411) down $16 reported nos that missed estimates for Q growth in its Azure cloud computing service and Nvidia regarded as a prime beneficiary of Ai growth fell 7% to ($103) weighing on other chip and high tech influential stocks. Apple, Amazon and Meta are all due to report earnings nos this week.

Among single stocks P&G fell 5% after missing Q4 sales nos and Merck ($115) also a top DJI 30 stock slumped 10% after cutting its annual profit forecast. CrowdStrike ($234) dropped 10% after a report that Delta and Msoft are seeking compensation for the carriers global cyber outage earlier this month. Vols on US exchanges was on par with its 20 day average of 11•9bn traded. The Fed will hold its latest policy meeting re: rates today, noone expects any change.

Ytd

---

Dow +8%

SP +14%

NS +12%

R2 +8%

-------

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2874

Advances 1158

Declines 1633

U/c 83

NH 180

NL 14

T/vol(bn) 3•4

-------------

DJ -49 (40,540)

SP +4 (5464)

NS +36 (19,059)

R2 -10 (1420)

WTI $75

10ytb 4•181%

----------

MSCI(W) +2 (3527)

Gold Bugs +3 (296)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 17. Brent $79.

Gold $2384. Copper $4•056.

Palm $1070. Silver $27•970.

$1•285. €1•187.

FF -9. DF -16.

Morning all

Markets in Asia took heart from Wall's impressive bounce on Friday taking the 3 major averages to closing record highs. However investors are braced for a potential flare up when a rocket fired from Lebanon struck a football field killing 12 children and wounding 20 others.

In Tokyo the 225 is up 750 at the mid session break. Gains are seen across most sectors notably big tech, banks and exporters on bottom fishing. Heading into the close the 225 is ahead 900 points after falling for 8 straight sessions. In Sydney the ASX200 is ahead 61 having touched 8000 earlier on back of miners,energy stocks and tech counters.

Elsewhere in Pacifica most mrkts are following the Nikkei with Hong Kong (+310) standing out as industrial company profits rose and expectations of more supportive policies from the Politburo boosted sentiment. While Shanghai is flat on cont stagnant property prices Soeul and Taiwan climb on investor optimism and bargain hunting.

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $81.

Gold $2394. Copper $4•127.

Palm $997. Silver $28•235.

$1•288. €1•185. 10ytb 4•182.

FF +30. DF +162.

Morning all.

bab**** became the latest uk defence firm to post increasing profits. it made £238m profit in the year to end march a 34% y-o-y rise and an 11% uplift in revenues to £4•4bn. it also paid a first dividend in 4 years but recorded a £90m loss on a fixed price contract it signed in 2019 to build 5 ships for the royal navy.

shares gained nearly 9% to 530p taking gains to almost 33% since russia invaded ukraine in feb 2022. investors chronicle rate the shares a buy.