Wk 6...4 Feb 2018 06:37
Any confirmation of the direction of markets will be supplied by Asia. Assuming no independence of thought the herd and follow my leader instinct will see falls across the board. The ftse already in a down channel will need no encouragement to open lower. Whether a moment in time or the start of a correction remains to be seen. A correction is c.10 % which would take the All Share back to c.3700 last seen in 2015. However as London has been nowhere near as bullish as Trumps New York falls could be in 2-5%. As ever much will depend on where the Dow futures see N.Y on Monday. My guess a small rise then more falls. The Dow has shed 1100 points in 5 sessions or c.4% so perhaps another 1500 is on the cards taking the Dow back to
24000 last seen just 3 months ago. Triggers /circuit breakers will be set off if a general panic sets in. Trading will then stop for 15 mins for reflection. This can take place after a 7% fall then c.15% and a 20% fall would see the market close for the day. The NYSE has closed many times blizzards, rail strikes, world wars, Sept 11 but i cannot remember one caused by a crash. In '87 N.Y closed for an hour or so i think, so to close for a day would be an extreme measure. In London if a panic sets in the liquid 100 will take the brunt of selling and then filter downwards. As far as Idea if a panic sets in could see the gains ytd disappear or worse. I don't see that happening but i didnt see the '87 crash happening either. Rates, inflation & bond yields will be the key to keeping the 9 year bull full of energy.