Member Info for JohnLewis79

MPE continues its long standing buyback programme, buying 1956 shares on 12/8 (weighted av of 674p).
MPE outstanding is 54.6m in issue (none held in Treasury).
Surprised REA have not bght at this low price which imo under values the shares even with our current debt which can be very useful if used to increase assets and net worth of the company. It's always a good sign when lenders see you as a good risk.

Buy backs are value accretive as long as one can buy as low as possible and don't push the sp up too fast. It's also useful to holders to know there is another buyer in the mrkt. Perhaps the board consider the current sp / nav to be intrinsically the correct value?
Apart from that a number of the board could seriously lower their avc by buying small lots in the mrkt.

London open. CPO $553.60.
IDR 14305.

President Joko Widodo said he wanted the proportion of palm oil blended with crude to increase from the current 20% to 30% starting in Jan 2020 and 50% by end 2020 .
We need to drive up domestic demand as this is expected to bring down the import of crude oil, the countries trade balance and save up to c.$1.76bn in foreign exchange.
Tests carried out by the Ministry of Resources are expected to be concluded by Sept and to date no serious issues had been found.
On average the adoption of B20 which was counted from the distribution of fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) as a specific CPO derivative used in biodiesel blends had reached 97.5% of its target between Jan - Jul this year and 56% (6.2m kilolitres)
used as a biodiesel blend.

True rugs. Comparisons are odious at the best of times with CPO being the only common factor. Thereafter estate yields, production vols, acerage, age of palms, currencies and the politics of the countries all differ widely. I guess REA and MPE are closely aligned as MPE has an estate in Kalimantan not that pis would be able to compare their estate nos with REAs.
Little change today the stock closed u/c at 114.5 mid on one small sell and a 3000 buy at 117.38. CPO at $ 548.30 and the IDR at 14247.

I doubt that's ever going to change unless there's a big uplift in volumes and bargains dealt.
Currently the av daily vols over last 90 days is c.9.9k.
A comparison to Dekel is instructive if of little use
as Dekel 90d av daily vol is c.520k.
A more realistic comparison would be MPE with a 90d av of 8.6k.
All 3 companies are in an unloved sector in Aim backwaters.

Current CPO price $545.80
and for Aug mtd averaged $528.

Indonesia is the worlds largest producer & consumer of palm oil, they supply about 50% of the global demand.
In 2018 they produced c.43m tonnes accounting for 11% of export earnings
(c.$6bn) and currently 70% is exported.
While exports to China grew 18% those to India & the EU declined with US +3% and Bangladesh +18%.

Biofuels grew at an impressive 800% in 2018
to c.1.56mt due to a recovery in demand after Indonesia won an anti dumping dispute with the EU at WTO.

The average CPO price recorded for 2018 was $595 per metric ton some 17% less than 2017 due to a rise in CPO stocks, the US/China trade war and slowing world growth.
Nevertheless Indonesian
production of CPO & PKO
is forecast to rise 4-5% this year.

Malaysia will meet with EU politicians probably in November in an effort to remove misconceptions about palm oil, as
many EU politicians are from the Green Party.
When asked about counter measures to the biofuel phase out, the MPOB said no decision had been decided yet.
In an effort to increase exports Malaysia was seeking new mrkts in Africa & the ME as well as boosting exports to India and China.

Malaysia has some 5.85m ha under palm of which 42% is palm certified sustainable well short of the 100% target. Malaysia produces c.19.5m tonnes annually.

Millions of ha of tropical forests were destroyed in 2018 with beef, chocolate (cocoa) and palm among the main causes.
Although forest losses were lower than 2016/7,
clearance of primary forests by loggers and cattle ranchers in Brazil dominated the destruction.
Losses were also high in the DRC (Congo) which saw small scale clearing for agriculture and firewood jump 38% higher. Indonesia is the only major country wher Govt protection is reducing losses, where the fall in deforestation is at its lowest since 2003.

Ghana (60%) & Ivory Coast (26%) recorded the bigest pc (%) increase of forest loss in Africa due to gold mining and cocoa. The Ivory Coast has taken steps to halt the loss of forests for cocoa production.

The Amazon basin revorded the bigest % (1.3m ha) of the (3.6m ha) deforestation / clear cutting of the worlds pristine forests cut down in 2018 principally for soya, paper and beef.
Most of it illegal and now encroaching on land of the last un-contacted peoples in the rain forests of S.America.
It's a delicate balance the worlds insatiable demand for food and minerals inevitably require more and more land for agriculture to feed and employ the populace.

Its up to Govts to protect their precious resources and realise that the land can only produce so much and no more or face the consequences.

A significant bounce in CPO prices since the Nov'18 low of $440 though not yet up to the av of Aug '18 ($594) saw palm stocks fall out of favour among investors, talk of CPO hitting lows of $200 last seen in 1990 scared many away.

REA has fallen from c.350 to just under 100 since 2015/6 and the recovery in CPO and sp has only just started.
Besides the falls in those two the plantation sector saw a 19% decrease in valuation in planted ha, to $10,900 in June this year. ($13,500 in Dec'17) as revs per ha fell dramatically.

With REA having c.33400 ha of mature palms by end this year and likely to restart planting in 2020 increasing yields, production to record levels, better CPO prices investors could start to see the attractions of the sector once again.
It's early days with clearly several road blocks ahead its best to keep a sense of proportion.

I'm not one for forecasting sp movements up or down but given the background and fundamentals of REA
2020 should be a better year unless demand falls off a cliff of course. CPO prices av out c.$550+ the local currency remains favourable, then REA should do okay, certainly better than the last couple of years.
I'm hoping I caught the bottom in both CPO price and REA sp.

Little happened sp wise on the wk, a flurry of activity on Thursday led to a 5 fall recovered mostly by Fri the shares up 2 on wk. Other palm stocks were little changed.
A much better performance by CPO which continued the rise seen from July 10th ($493) and closed up $26
on the wk to $545.80.
The IDR at 14190 to the greenback.

Silly me...your in the preference which has performed poorly recently.
Anyways good luck.

Atm this BB is essentially myself and rugs. So of your used to a chatty board this is not the place for you, so your input will be welcomed.

Welcome Devonplay. Climb aboard. I started the rebuilding of this BB some weeks ago and subsequently rugs an'old mucker
from other stocks we have been associated with bght in to REA.
Couldn't fathom your post 8,75% 8/20 So you will have to explain what that means.....

Indonesia said it could raise tariffs on EU Dairy products to 20% in a retaliatory move for phasing out palm biofuel.

CPO $544.40 up $10 atm.

London open. CPO $540.20.

Of the London quoted stocks in mrkt cap terms we are 3rd, ranked behind MPE & Anglo.
While MPE has a value of £370m on sales of £108m
REA with similar revenues is valued at £44m.
That's a big disconnect between the two similar Cos...until you factor in the debt.

That's some lumpy buys
(4.3m) doubt you could pick up that quantity here in a hurry. Mind you DKL have 10x the nos of outstanding than we do.
In terms of operational size REA are not in the top 10 Indonesian Palm Oil Cos.

CPO continues to gain current price $538.80.

Hold tight as London closed, REA slipped 5 & CPO continues upwards at $534.50 +($6.30) and IDR (14208). More than the usual couple of trades today, 41 to be exact and 260,131 traded all sells bar a 5500 buy.....to what purpose no-one knows.

Tomorrow i suspect will be very quiet and revert to the norm. Other palm stocks were mixed, MPE +7, Anglo -4 and DKL u/c.