Member Info for JohnLewis79

The Indonesian Central Bank Governor reported the following saying the economy can grow at

* 6% over next 5 years.
* 3% inflation.
* 2% c/acc defecit as % of GDP.
* $6000 per cap income next 5 yrs
The rupiah was testing daily lows of 14185 levels was impressed with the Governors remarks.

London open: CPO $542.10
IDR 14260.

0I see Avanti Comms have decided to relinquish their
AIM listing and will shortly de-list saying the mrkt undervalues the Co.
From memory these were trading in the 200s+ and I very nearly bght some.

Shareholders have had a disastrous time as the stock has plummeted to just 1p! I wonder whether Woodford has stock..
Heh heh heh!?

MPE bought back 1729 at 679 yesterday. Strange REA have not taken advantage of the low REA stock price. Perhaps they are considering a cash raise and adding to the outstanding!!?

On the wider stock mrkts
both London and the US had one of their better days. The Dow ended up 250 (26136) and the ftse added 72 (7190).
However all the usual concerns have not gone away, Brexit, slowing global growth and trade wars all of which could scupper fragile mrkts.

Most likely yesterdays rise was bottom fishing after the 800 loss on the Dow last Wed, since when 650 points have been recovered.
I doubt any of the above has any impact on one very small S.E. Asian plantation counter but a positive background and confidence among investors is a definite plus.

The Govts of Indonesia and Malaya are likely to go to the ICJ to protest at the anti palm oil initiatives carried out by the EU, which they state is more about protecting their edible oil businesses than seeing palm oil as bad.
While some EU countries have become more pro palm oil overall the EU policy remains unchanged.

Currently c.48% of palm estates/production have achieved RSPO standard so there is a long way to go to hit their 100% target by 2019. That's not going to happen.
RSPO is about best practices in regard to the environment and is widely accepted globally. Currently Malaysia generates c.RM67.5bn in export earnings producing 19.5mt on 5.85mha.

In other news drought has hit large parts of the Indonesian archipelago as a mild El Nino disrupts the dry season across major planting regions. A nos of local planters have said that in the short to medium term production would be hit and that 3Q production will chart flat to slower growth compared to Q2 as a delay in fruit ripening occurs during a prolonged drought leading to lower ffb nos.
Current CPO price has risen to $541.30.

Another poor day for CPO prices (-$11) closing at $538. Shares perked up mid-day but eased back
+5 on the session on 37.4k volume (9 deals). Only other movers were
MPE + 1 and AEP slipped 2.5.

No specific news that would account for a $16 fall in the CPO price, could just be dealers logging a profit. I expect the price to resume its recent trend higher heading to year end.

Yea I booked that 5000 as a buy as well but trades and vols, buys or sells are a minefield and should not be relied upon as most who have tried to decipher to their cost know, given who is actually doing the trading, is it retail or otherwise best one follows the sp.

Blimey...so many trades I can't keep up with it all!
Nothing to do with me rugs...you jest I know.

On a day when the CPO is off $8+ one would think the sp might be off 10 or so as often happens with crude. Obviously we dont follow crude more soya on the Chicago Exch for palm futures but any small increase is appreciated.
Perhaps the CPO price got ahead of itself and was due a pull back? Whatever its a moment in time, nothing more or less.

I'm going with the flow expecting the H/Y to be better than prev and looking out to 2020/1 for the sp to be certainly 200+ given CPO prices that will reflect demand and increasing yields.

Just back from a convivial session with Mrs Buffet who picked the 'Blades' to beat Palace (grrrrr!) in the pub last man standing comp.

Thanx rugs I try and do my bit but how to attract a wider following is a problem given the sensitive 'palm' deforestation & climate change ongoing debate and the 'we hate palm oil'
lobby.

I don't think the bare nos will do it hopefully palm prices will increase enough so that REA & the like will have no further need to replant thousands of ha for the foreseeable.
British companies may tow the line more than the illegal cutting of forests by small holders and others not signed up to the RSPO
concord.

London open: CPO $543.80.

CPO prices have fallen $12 since recent 4 wk high ($554) on the 14/8. Current at 7.00am $542.20.

Malaysian PM urges Britain to engage with S.E.Asian palm growers and not to get caught in the crossfire war on tariffs
when they exit the EU.

This would lead to better trading opportunities and terms between S.E.Asia & the UK. He said the EU move was a form of modern colonialism that has no place in today's world.

The Indonesian President has made permanent the moratorium on forest-clearing for plantations and logging.
The policy says the Govt has been effective in curtailing deforestation and is a concrete example of the Govts commitment to environmental protection.
However Greenpeace says deforestation has increased and the Govts assertions are pure propaganda and does not deliver real change on the ground.
In a whole slew of facts and figures to back up their claims particularly in the area of secondary forests which fall out of the scope of the moratorium and thus increase the acreage for replanting. Greenpeace state that large areas of primary forests are not covered by the moratorium and too many loopholes exist.
The arguments are set to run and run.

CPO prices are on the slide, opened at $545 down c.$4.

The EU imports c.8mt of palm oil. Indonesia supplies 52%, Malaysia 23%, S.America 16% & Others 9%
Of the 8mt, 4 countries use 87%. They are Netherlands (2.4mt), Spain (1.8mt), Italy (1.6mt) & Ger (0.8mt).

Palm Oil is used in food and feed (39%), electricity/heating (10%) and 51% in biofuel. Biodiesel is made from c.35% palm oil and c.55% rapeseed. To replace palm oil with rapeseed which yields c.1.5t per ha would take an additional 2.7m ha of land to replace just the palm oil used in biodiesel.
Rapeseed a competitor to palm oil is grown across Europe. The largest two producers by acreage (1000 ha) are France with 1600 ha & Ger 1450 ha, Poland a distant third 850 ha. As previously stated to compete with palm oil
they would have to massively increase their acreage.
For instance, France & Ger would have to double their acreage and even if they could (and they can't) it would be a bad idea because currently on a global scale palm uses 6.6% of the land and produces 39% of the output.
So, what is the solutions?
The IUCN (Internationa Union for Conservation of Nature) in a June 2018 report concluded that the world needs more sustainable palm oil---- not less.

A better wk all round for the CPO adding a $ after falling back $6 today.
REA added 16 on the wk with a little more interest than recent past but still
pitifully low volumes.

REA is not your usual Aim
no hoper plagued by day traders looking for a turn
and all the better for it.
However debt and Nav swamp the mrkt value which hopefully will become more aligned in 2020 onwards.

Other palm stocks closed mixed on the session.

AEP -1
DKL u/c
EPA - 0.025
MPE +7
REA u/c

The spat over biofuels with the EU continues. Whether Indonesia will retaliate by hiking duties on EU imports is uncertain
atm.

London open: CPO $552.10.

MPE bght 1774 at 654 continuing the buyback strategy.

Late reported (buy?) trade from (14/8), 25000 at 130

Unofficial Ranking Guide as at 26/7/19.

MPE No 454
AEP No 572
REA No 699
DKL ----
EPA ----