Member Info for JohnLewis79

True dat rugs i overstayed my welcome having sworn I'd be home by 2 latest. I think I need counselling!
A nothing day for palm stocks, CPO $565.70, IDR I4194 at London close.

Trades of c.58,000 and no movement either way in the sp is suspicious imo. I dont want to go down the 'manipulated sp' route but ya gotta wonder in such a thinly traded counter.

What's going on now...99% of trades buy or sell are at 160. Perhaps another monitoring ext?

Tiny spread now!

I take a different view. I would rather they pare down the debt than pay divs but I would say that wouldn't I?
If they are considering a cash raise I think you might be in for a long wait on your Prefs but you knew that I'm sure.
Anyways there are options available to manage REAs debt so I guess you gotta ask how important is it in the boards view to start repayment of divs?

rugs an old dog like you knows full well not to act on the advice of BB postings! I think Palace in top 4 has emboldened you! Good luck though but if it goes t's up blame devonp....not me heh heh heh!!

Right that's me out of the
Debt. I had forgotten its a lumpy invstmnt and way beyond my means atm.

I'm not going to make a killing here but every little helps. Until W decides on Sphere's future, if any, its small plays for me.
I'm well past retirement and with little in the way of cash outlays other than beer and gambling, the stock mrkt is my main interest.
I appreciate income from shares is high on your list and if I had my Sphere money I'd be doing the same.

See the 111 share trade is back!

Morning devonp. If I had any spare without having to borrow I'd likely follow you into the debt. Atm am concentrating on the equity which I feel is due a pull back after last wks exuberance, so could offer another reasonably priced entry point.
I do not worry about adding to an appreciating asset. I'm usually adding to a depreciating one!

Yea I saw that Hardman report.

Below is a bofp calc on EV.
Bank loans $117m
Sterling notes $38m
US $ notes $24m
Prefs 9% £72m
Other loans $30m

Enterprise value (Mrk cap+debt-cash) is £66m+£245m-£21m=£290m
or 716p (bofp calcs) 2018.
That's quite a bit north of Stockopedia EV of £241m
(595p).

As I said before a wide margin of safety if you follow the fundamentals.

Today the US imposes a further 15% tariff on $100bn worth of Chinese imports. This is expected to add between $500-1000
to US consumers shopping basket.
Retaliatory measures by China will follow on cars, electronics and foods (soybean) among others.

Palm prices are effected by other oils, mainly soy as they compete for a share in the world veg oil mrkts.
On the BMDE (Malaysia Exch) palm oil for Nov delivery was up c.1% to 2234 ringgit per ton its strongest performance since Jan'19. CPO futures trade range for Sept was $514-$562.
REA shares had a stellar Aug rising 52 (112 - 164) a 46% increase but still down 33% and 47% on ytd and 52 wk respectively.

If China confirm retaliatory duties on soy, Aug inventory levels in Malaysia (supported by better export outlook) should be lower. CPO could get a boost which will help REA stock to keep the run going. This is no time to be short and if the shares do come off to c.150 offer i will add.
Whether SC will be "in the mrkt" I don't know but he's known as an aggressive buyer if stock is on offer.

I have not tracked last month's vol but if they were much over 250,000 lets say 12,000 a day on a (shortened 21 day month) i'd be surprised (bofp calc). Morningstar has REA 90 day vol at c.13000 per day so my figs are in the ball park.

Monday Open.
Ftse +49
Dow +6
NKK -35

Morning all.

Good post devonp and agree pis focus on equity above all else myself included. If things go t's up the ordinaries usually get wiped out so makes sense to own Prefs/debt etc as a hedge, ew bet as your likely to get something back.
As you say unlikely to happen here. I have only a couple of £k at risk here which might be a blessing as 90% of my assets (don't ask) are tied up in one of Woodfords early stage companies which he joined half way and cleverly de-listed 2 years ago much to pis annoyance. So that left me pretty much potless.
Currently worth zero (imo) or what he can get.....despite holders piling in c.£100m over the years.
Incidentally Simon C reckons WPCT is effectively bust as the nav assumptions are for the birds.

Talking of which I see REA total assets less liables leaves REA with c.494 pps
and shareholder funds at 535p. That's a decent margin of safety (368) for the risk all things considered.
I did very well with NBPO then stupidly ploughed in my profits to my blood thing which W now owns near 50% along with the Welsh Dev Agency.
I need a miracle. Unfortuneately they don't happen to me.
Anyways am in my local helping to prepare for a barbecue / DJ this evening and watch the Wales v Ireland game later on.

Good morning devonplay I agree on the day traders flocking to the stock that's inevitable once Mr Evil K gets involved.
He brings a 'certain baggage' with him some good some not so.
Notwithstanding yesterdays action it was a welcome relief from days of no volumes and bargains done. I don't expect to see a repeat next week more a pull back as traders take profits as there was little profit taking yesterday on the nos I saw on Lse & Morningstar (67530) neither agreeing.
As to comments re being accused of shorting or for unfavourable views so far it's been only rugs, yourself and me who are posting here. I recently left an oil stock where the BB had an excellent group of pis, no BB warriors on that one!
But your right people only interested in a flip of the coin bring little to this site and will soon be gone.

As to the Prefs they did cancel the dividend which no doubt will be resumed once finances permit. From memory there are (50m in issue?) and may incur an 'accumulation'.
As to the 2020 sterling notes im not sure how these will he satisfied, likely by a raise of sorts as REA have done many times in the past.

Debt is my big worry here some 70% of shareholder funds is alarming only mitigated by low interest rates prevailing currently. I'm sure this has been a drag on the sp and has been the downfall of many companies.
I think the bias is for increases not decreases so we'll have to see what the Fed / Carney does.

Anyways good to have an investor on board whose on the other side of the coin so to speak.... a side I'm unfamiliar with.

Morning all.

Close wk 35.

CP0 $565.40 (+c.$9)
IDR 14185 (-27)

AEP 465 (+7)
DKL 2.70 (+0.05)
EPA 0.575 (u/c)
MPE 671 (u/c)
REA 164 (+28)

I don't know whether your comment...'LOL I'll await the new comer to call me a shorter'.... is aimed at me?
Regardless ones duration in a stock it has little bearing on anything. I might add I have been watching REA for many a year awaiting a buy in point that I considerd good value.

Anyways I agree the gearing is top heavy the Prefs need paying and it's not as if investors are unaware of this.
Of course over exuberance by pis is pretty commonplace across the whole mrkt and tipsters have their dedicated supporters and nay'sayers.

I'm not a follower of SC but he did me a favour once which saved me a decent sum and I have followed him off and on for years.
Your obviously not a fan of SC but comments like 'flash in the pan' strike me as a hard luck story for not buying REA sub 100 like me.
If I'm barking up the wrong tree please accept my apologies, for at the end of the day we are all here to make money, first and foremost.

A lot more interest this morning in bargains and vols, most likely on the Evil Knievil tip as Simon C has a strong following.
However I expect REA to post H1 losses as others have already done so.

Given that's on the cards
i'm interested to hear the Co outlook statement for the rest of the year and whether any revisions might be on the cards.

CPO 561.5.

Here are some comparable prices per est kg oil content (kg/ha) and price per ton (USD). Figs as at May 2018 latest available.

Palm. 5000 oil content. $660 pt.
Soyb. 375 oil content. $793 pt.
Rape. 1000 oil content. $812 pt.
Cocnt. 2670 oil content. $1029 pt.
Sunflr. 800 oil content. $782 pt.
Peanut. 890 oil content. $1316 pt.

Dow had a good session yesterday up 326 (26362)
on 'pow-wows' being resumed with China who said they would delay tariffs due Sept 1st.
All Asian bourses are positive the Nikkei up 287, SH +8 & HK up 177 all late on in the session.
Ftse called 22 better and the Dow up 78.

Some of you long in the tooth investors will know of Simon Cawkwell the notorious shorter known as the 'Evil Knievil' of London mrkts.
(He writes under the monicker Master Investor).
On his latest blog he writes: In the past 3 wks the price of palm oil has jumped $100 to touch $590, now $570. This makes a huge difference to the outlook at REA so this surely is the time to buy REA aggressively. Now 135 offer.

Make of that what you will and remember he's a tipster/investor/writer and may or may not hold shares in his tips. Whatever I'm sure you would be inclined to buy on his tip rather than mine!