Member Info for JohnLewis79

Nothing at the interim stage or at YE. The bod say they will 'engage' with Preference holders once CPO prices become sustainable. That could be a year
out from now.

Seems wiser heads than mine have concluded the nos were priced in or at least not as bad as thought? Remember we are in the 'Casino' hour of sp trading so nothing is as it seems.

Quick butcher's a little worse than i expected but H1 was always going to be poor not helped by negative exchange rate movements ($16m) and a c.22% lower CPO & 40% lower for CPKO.
Revs held up well (+17%) and Ffbs up 3%. Some accounting costs saw an increase of c.$20m.

Difficult to predict what invstrs will make of the nos but there were no shocks. Jobbers will no doubt try and shake loose some traders and nervous pis. I expect a down day
with a swift recovery as H2 looks way way better.

Could be today or next wk.

Indonesia is to push back ambitious replanting targets beyond 2025, in an effort to defuse criticism over forest clearance, smog & haze issues.
The aim is to encourage small holders to adopt better agri husbandry (better seeds) so as to boost output on lower acreage. Small holders have c.40% of palm under cultivation.
Forest loss from expansion of palm oil estates has declined from 28% to 22% last year.
The Govt had aimed to replant 200,000 ha this year followed by 500,000 ha and then 800,000 ha by 2021.
The target was to have replanted 2.4m ha which will now take an est 12 years to achieve....if ever.

A flat day on US mrkts the Dow in a choppy session traded in a tight 200 point range closing down 52 at (27095) the 500 u/c at (3007) and Nsdq gained 5 (8185). The 10yr t/bill yield, now below the S&P500 yield leaves investors with little option but to accept the risk on equities which have been stellar this year (S&P up 20% ytd).

Company news:
Microsoft topped the Big Board leaders gaining c.2% to ($141) on a 11% Q div hike and resumption of buybacks while Apple ($221) fell to the bottom off 0.80%. Amazon commits to 100% renewables and Burger goes 'veggie.' Top sector riser was healthcare. WTI was u/c at $58.73, Exxon & Chevron both lower by 0.52+%

In the Far East mrkts are just ahead on low level trade talks mainly on agri issues resuming ahead of the high level ones in October. Pan Pacifics were little changed.
A White House advisor warned that if a trade deal was not reached soon the US could increase tariffs to 50 or 100%. Threats of this nature are not the basis for talks and were considered 'hot head' bluster.
The Peoples Bank of China cut its 1 yr lending rate to 4.20% in line with rate cuts from the ECB and the Fed.

Oil $64.71. Gold $1513.
Palm $558. $1.255. €1.135
FF -40. DF +8.
Morning all.

A late reported trade of 20,000 (152) from 17/9 boosted today's vols to 21150. Shares u/c at 158-162.
Other palms had their ups and downs, Anglo+7.5, MPE-6, DKL u/c and PAL holding up well above 1p.

CPO slipped just 30c to $560.6 and IDR 14060.

Lower stockpiles in Malaysia now at a 13 month low are set to boost exports and raise CPO prices.
The 3 month futures on the Bursa Malaysia shot up to RM 2297pt. Adding to pressure on prices is the slowdown in new plantings in both Indonesia and Malaysia since 2015.

The current fires raging in Indonesia may impact on extraction rates (lower rainfall, lack of sun) if they are not brought under control quickly.

Uncertainties about the economic outlook prompted the Fed to cut a quarter % point off rates to 1.75-2.00% on a 7-3 majority vote for the second time this year. Probably the last cut in.2019. Trump in his usual appreciative tone about Powell said he has 'no guts' 'no sense' and 'no vision'
The Dow was off 103 at 2.00pm SE time. All three US stock indexes climbed sharply late on (the Dow had been 250 lower) and down 185 at 3.00pm to close with small gains, the Dow up 36, S&P up 1and the techs off 9 points.

Asia mrkts are mixed the BOJ kept rates u/c with inflation at 1% running below the 2% target. The BOJ said they could cut rates into negative at their next meet in Oct (currently zero). HK cut rates by 1/4% and Indonesia to rule on rates later.
Late on the Nikkei is up 122, SH flat and HK down 334.
Other news, the swine fever in China has killed over 1m pigs and the Govt are releasing stock to the mrkts and being forced to import pork the staple diet of the Chinese. The demand for soy for animal feed among other uses has been decimated boosting imports of palm.

Oil $63.71. Gold $1502.
Palm $560. $1.24. €1.13.
FF -17. DF -70.
Morning all.

It might have been a dull day here but over in West Africa EPA were flying up closing with a 100% gain at close, had been a lot higher earlier...N-I-C-E!!

Anglo lost 15 to 435 on small lot selling and MPE added 2, DKL u/c and REA spread moved to a more manageable 158-162.

CPO gained $2 closing at $561.50 the high for the day. IDR 14060.

Very quiet here today zero trades at half-time. Mon and Tues saw 35k and 32k shares traded so a quiet period was likely given results are imminent.

Consensus loss for 2019..Not 2018.

Consensus for 2018 loss is c.$16-18m with no profit until 2020. Forecast CPO for 2019 is $540 which might be conservative and that is unlikely to translate into profits before 2020. Beyond that Hardman is looking for CPO of $650 and REA going into profit.
Shareholders equity at 2019 year end is est at $236m (£190m) or 470 pps.

Given that debt might hit 100% of shareholder funds in 2019 and a planting out programme of 50,000ha by 2025 every penny will count. So somethings gotta give.
Either CPO prices will not support such a target and borrowings will take longer to reduce or invstrs will see no income as all available cash will go into increasing the planted acreage (or not) which is hugely important as long as it's economic to do so.
I read that new palm planting requires c.$535 to break even so it's very much touch'n go.

Nevertheless I'm reasonably happy to be invested here and that the new REA estate management will cont to improve yields, extraction rates and acreage.

The two most important nos palm oil estate management go by are FFB mt/ha and the OER (oil extraction rate). On both metrics REA has shown marked improvement over some poor results going back a few years.
REA achieved FFB yield per ha of 23.1mt and OER rate of 22.5%.
On a list of (26) major Asian palm oil estate operators REA sat 6th of 26 in yield per ha and 5th of 26 in OER.

MPE placed 16th in FFB yield and 2nd in OER. No single operator topped the list in both metrics.

MPE extends share buy backs by another 6 months following the 14% decline in revenue to $46m ($54m) and profits slipping from $5.8m to $518,000, primarily due to much lower H1 CPO prices
which averaged $528pt a 20% decline yoy.

Palm Oil exports rose in July hitting 2.92mt, 16% higher than June as Chinese demand ramped up. On a yearly basis exports are 9% down.
African swine flu has reduced soybean production in China and imports from Ind & Mal have shot up c.50% in June.
While domestic consumption hit 1.43mt in July (flat for the month) but 42% higher than same month last year.

In other news the Indonesia Govt is cracking down on errant plantation companies by 'sealing' off plantations involved in open burning. Sampoerna a Singapore based estates owner has been named among 42 others operating estates covering c.6000ha.
The Govt has warned of drastic penalties if found to have broken any laws.
Execs could be jailed, profits seized, companies fined and forced to pay compensation. It's a no win game for transgressors.

US mrkts were flat awaiting the Fed's decision on a possible rate cut later today. The Dow gained 34 (27111), the S&P added 8 (3006). Oil prices fell sharply on a surprising build of inventory WTI closed down 5% at $59.50 and Brent off 7% at $64.60.
Not helping the price was SA reporting that production will be back a lot sooner than originally thought.

Over in Asia bourses were marginally ahead but TK off 17 on news that Japan's Aug exports contracted more than expected which may prompt the BOJ to ease monetary policy.
The mrkts expect the Fed to make a quarter-percentage cut this evening. Towards close HK is up 7, SH +12 & TK down 30.

Oil $64.50. Gold $1510.
Palm $595. $ 1.248.
€ 1.128. FF -10. DF -33.
Morning all.

Agreed but hard to see any headway when the spread just gets moved around. It's what it is, we dont have to trade.
CPO hit $567 but fell away to $559 at close. Other palm stocks were flat, MPE added 6, DKL -0.10 the rest u/c.
Expect REA to report on the 19th much in line with MPE.

No change just moving the spread about, 154-159...153-162.
So the sp gain is being tightly controlled on miniscule volumes to no effect. It's almost as if the 'barrow boys' or the bloody machines have lost interest. Wait till the spread returns to a sensible 154-156.

Around 1000 wild fires across Sumatra and Borneo are generating thick clouds of smoke and haze over large parts of SE Asia mainly due to the illegal slash & burn to clear land for palm oil and woodpulp industries. Schools in Malaysia are closing and diplomatic tensions are rising particularly on health concerns. Fires are a world concern. They rage in the US, Amazon Basin, Canada & Australia creating greenhouse gas emissions which makes it harder to limit temp rises.

Unfortunately many of the fires in SE Asia smoulder deep underground in once swampy areas drained of water and covered by a thick lair of combustible material. Once ignited they can last for months releasing thick acrid smoke. Often in remote hard to access areas
water bombing is used to little effect. Pumping huge amounts of water underground is prohibitively expensive. Over 9000 people are currently deployed to fight the fires. Everyone is waiting for the October rainy season.