Member Info for JohnLewis79

Hum issue Q4 update and '22 outlook. AISC $1803...phew!

A positive start for stocks in Asia-Pacifica, though SH is closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. Heavyweight techs led the Nikkei higher aided by energy on Brent topping $91boe earlier, a 7 year peak. Ukraine tensions and tight supplies are underpining prices at this level. However higher oil will stoke inflation if Russia cuts gas supplies.

Latest: Oil $89•52. Vix 27•66.
Gold $1789. Copper $4•312.
Palm $1470. Silver $22•295.
$1•342. €1•202. Yen 115•381.
Yuan 6•359. FF +53. DF +72
Morning all.

Wk4
PAT
Cum
------
Trades 92
Vol 1•443m
Buy 0•160k
Sell 1•283m
Ratio 9:1 sell
Sell 89%
Avt 15,700
5 -2%
30 -8%
90 u/c
Ytd -8%
52 -50%

Cora -4%
Grl -5%
Hum -13%
0rr -4%
Rrr -4%

Ytd
Aim -130 (1087) -11%.
Crude +$10•94 ($88•88) +14%.

Another day another loss on the week in London. Its been a tough January for equities London's ftse managed a 9 point gain and the All put on 35 much better than across the pond where techs sand'bagged mrkts.

Investors are right up against mrkts that simply do not want to know about an improving economy, inflation being tackled and rates despite 4 possible moves up will take them to c.2-2•5% by Q1 2023, still at historic lows. However the BOA asserted in a note to investors they think the Fed will raise rates 7 times by •25% basis in 2023, the most hawkish of the big banks.

And there is no safety in Gold once the safe haven for investors is now becoming a store of destruction having slumped over $50 since mid January ($1842) (down 2%
ytd), aided by the Banks who have a hold on further downward moves and look to lend at higher rates. Bond yields have risen 27% ytd not good for gold and despite 7% inflation investors are deserting the mrkt preferring to stay on the safety of the sidewalk leaving cash to erode in preference to risk losing it in buying risky casino stocks.

Companies across the ticker flagged Robin Hood the commission free digital trading platform popular with retail punters. They reported a massive $432m loss after hours on Thursday. Its stock ticked up •99c closing at $12•55, despite active users falling by 9%, its been one of the worst IPOs of recent memory.
The Dow at lunch was up 190 and heading for one of the poorest January's on record. A 924 swing from low to high on the session saw the indexes about turn late on to post weekly gains, the first time in 3.

DJ +564 (34,725)
SP +105 (4432)
NS +451 (14,458)
R2 +19 (1272)
WTI $87•29
10ytb 1•771%

MSCI(W) +50 (3006)
Gold Bugs -2 (240)

Close:- Oil $88•88. Vix 27•66.
Gold $1792. Copper $4•328.
Palm $1410. Silver $ 22•490.
$1•341. €1•202. Yen 115•184.
Yuan 6•360. Morning all.

Good points nelson dg and Boris has done himself no favours in some of his 'evasive' answers but he got Brexit done and to date covid has been a success for which he can take credit.
I guess it's you pays your money and...when it comes to the PM.

I hear Diddly Squat Davis is stirring up trouble on the back benches for Boris ahead of Sue Grey's report on partygate and other heinous hanging offences committed by the PM. Sack him, send him to the Tower yell the whiter than white MPs who owe their £100k a year jobs to him..."et tu Brutus" indeed.

DIGAF? No. I'm pretty sure many swerved the strict rules during lockdowns 1&2, but Boris was remiss in allowing staff to flaunt the guidelines in No10. I don't think that's a sacking offence considering some of the outrageous expense claims made by many MPs during the expenses scandal which bordered on outright thievery. That would have had you and me banged up, yet many retain their jobs to this day.

I fear if the report is overly critical of the PM he will jack it in leaving all the second raters to try for the top job and Labour becoming favourites to win the next election.

US investors seemed to have had a change of heart having beaten down techs and cyclicals to a more sustainable level, they are back picking up oversold stocks in quality companies. In early trading the Dow roared up over 600 led by Dow, Msoft, Disney and Chevron. It was too good to last and traders dumped techs wiping out all the gains of the first 2 hours by mid'day.

US GDP nos gladdened investors as Q4 saw a rise to an annualised 6•9% up from (2•3% in Q3). That's the fastest growth rate since 1984. The greenback rose against the GBP following last night's hawkish press conference from the Fed leaving Gold prices heading South. Jobless claims were less than forecast as firms continue to hire,vacancies at record levels.

The threat of rate rises and shorters pulled gold below $1800 which was no deterrent to eager bottom fishers in equities. Over exuberance saw traders prick investors hopes of another 1000 point day and at lunch the Dow was limping along just 10 points up. Unfortunately omicron, inflation, supply chain issues, Ukraine and rates going up in March won't be going away anytime soon. Growth in Q1 & 2 is forecast to fall back into the 2-3% range as inflation tightens its grip on the $ in people's pockets.

After hours Apple reported record Q1 (2022) revenues up 11% to $123•9bn ($70bn ip) due to a record holiday season in the US and demand from China. Shares gained $8 at $167.

DJ -7 (34,161)
SP -23 (4327)
NS -169 (14,003)
R2 -25 (1252)
WTI $87•05
10ytb 1•819%

MSCI(W) -24 (2955)
Gold Bugs -7 (242)

Latest:- Oil $88•52. Vix 30•49.
Gold $1795. Copper $4•416.
Palm $1419 Silver $ 22•755.
$1•340. €1•202. Yen 115•415.
Yuan 6•355. FF+22. DF +212.
Morning all.

A 430 point range during the morning session left the Dow solidly up at lunch. Economic news did little to move fragile sentiment as the trade defecit soared 12% m-o-m in Dec due to an $5bn increase in imports (exports $2•2bn). The defecit at $621bn is c.3% of GDP down from a high of $760bn (5%) in 2016. Fed Chair Powell is due to report today on rates, QE & tackling inflation.

New home sales a key barometer of the health of the economy jumped to a 9 month high as demand for housing outweighed house price increases and pressures on household finances. Crude rose $2 to nearly $90 boe as stocks unexpectedly rose to the highest since 2014. Supply disruptions and the Ukraine crisis boosted the OP.

Gold suffered profit taking slumping $20 to $1832 despite home sales which rose 12% m-o-m (811,000) units. People are buying new properties now pre the next rate rise most likely in March by (•25%) basis which will cost owners a great deal more the longer they delay, which in theory should be good for gold bulls as the Fed intends to 'double tighten' the economy which the mrkt interpreted as code for 'recession' usually good for gold.

Tesla ($953) having fallen $140 this month will report Q4 nos later as will Intel. Having smashed Q3 nos, earnings estimates for Q4 have risen steadily. Late on Tesla reported record Q4 revs and vehicles produced, shares fell after hours to $930. As the Dow headed into the pm session Msoft +$15, Apple +$4 and Intel topped the big board. Boeing down $6 was plum last as a late burst of selling took the shine off the days trading leaving only the Nsdq in the black.

DJ -129 (34,168)
SP -7 (4350)
NS +24 (24,173)
R2 -19 (1278)
WTI $86•47
10ytb 1•845%

MSCI(W) +4 (2978)
Gold Bugs -9 (248)

Latest:- Oil $87•97. Vix 31•96.
Gold $1815. Copper $4•430.
Palm $1375. Silver $23•350.
$1•344. €1•197. Yen 114•604.
Yuan 6•345. FF -135. DF -330.

Wobbles in Asia-Pacifica on negative cues from the Street have tanked the major exchanges today. The Nikkei down 891, HK off 625 and Shanghai 30 lower. The ASX tumbled 136 leaving the mrkt 800 (11%) lower ytd.
London is called over 100 down at opening. Morning all.

There's no change in early dealings on the Street as stocks ignored the last minute rise on the Dow yesterday as a one off giant leap. Investor hopes were somewhat dented by the IMF downgrading the Feds forecasts for US economic growth and globally to 4•4%. News like that just added to the wave of selling which is in danger of becoming self fulfilling.

The Dow was 400 off at lunch having been 800 lower soon after the bell led by a mixed bunch of retail, tech and Healthcare, all c.5% lower. Prices continued their wild swings throughout the day the mrkt in a quandary as to which way to go though traders are happy to buy the dips. Wells Fargo urges investors to put their money into stocks at these distressed prices.

Powell is expected to report tomorrow on the FOMC policy setting meeting. No rate rise is expected this month as any unnecessary sudden move would threaten the fragile recovery which is still coping with omicron, supply chain issues & inflationary pressures. However Credit is still readily available to companies and consumers.

To date 64 S&P companies have reported Q4 nos and only c.30 have beaten consensus earnings estimates. There has been little forward guidance from CEOs and those that have (5/6) have lowered guidance. Investors remain in limbo siding to be safe rather than sorry. Optimism among investors is in short supply as the bears awoken from their years of slumber seek retribution.

By the close the Dow was off just 67 though the Nsdq remained deep in the red with Apple and Msoft among the laggards on the big board. Msoft reported earnings that exceeded estimates in revenue and eps, shares fell $5 to $292 and down 14% ytd. The Nsdq ytd has lost 2081(13%), the DJI 2040 (6%), S&P 410 (9%) and small caps down 105 (7%).

DJ -67 (34,298)
SP -54 (4356)
NS -360 (14,149)
R2 -15 (1297)
WTI $85•22
10ytb 1•775%

MSCI(W) -30 (2975)
Gold Bugs +3 (257)

Latest:- Oil $86•89. Vix 31•16.
Gold $1847. Copper $4•456.
Palm $1365. Silver 23•780.
$1•351. €1•195. Yen 113•892.
Yuan 6•322. FF +62. DF +16.
Morning all.

So...where's that with bikes and kayaks...don't sound ill Blighty!

Morning Pollack....no am living in uncomfortable retirement in Saaaarff Londons on the Dulwich, West Norwood borders.....

Every major mrkt across Asia-Pacifica this morning is lower, ignoring the remarkable about turn on the Street yesterday. Mrkts continue to focus on the certainty of rate rises and Fed tightening along with inflation at a 30 year high in the US is keeping investors in sell off mode. Dow and Nsdq futures are both c.300 points down as more big US companies report today, J&J, 3M, GE and Amex.

At JST 2:30 pm.

TK -550
HK -373
SH -54
SK -67
TAIX -301
KL -17
STI -41
JSX -99
ASX -178

The 'afternoon' crowd pulled the Dow out of a panic selling tumble of 1100 points by lunch. Early moves were down following Londons near 200 fall, investors heading for the exits 'at best' prices. Msoft off $17 & Apple down $5 saw the Nsdq 100 nosedive 437 at worst but later recovered with the mrkt. The small caps are firmly in the clutches of the bears off 11% ytd after a stellar 25% gain in 2021.

Big tech will see Q4 nos from Apple, Msoft and nos from Big Mac and Boeing this week but sentiment is poor given the mrkt is now expecting 4 x•25% basis points increases this year and with inflation running at 7% and higher on the street many are struggling to make ends meet. Mix in rates, the ending of QE, virus concerns and the Ukraine crisis, a $ in your hand is better than two in the mrkts hand.

A DJI 1000 points fall while rare is not uncommon as there have been (3) previous in the last (2) years from memory. The mrkt recovered the losses in a matter of weeks, but that was then. At lunch only 3 of the top 30 were in the black with Boeing ($199) down 7% propping up the rest of the laggards.

As the mrkt neared lunch it staged a dramatic comeback as investors poured into beaten down techs and by close had reversed a 1100 fall on the Dow to close up 99, it's first rise in 7 sessions. However mrkts will remain extremely volatile as Dow futures point to a down open today.

DJ +99 (34,364)
SP +12 (4410)
NS +71 (14,510)
R2 +29 (1311)
WTI $83•62
10ytb 1•762%

MSCI(W) -20 (3006)
Gold Bugs -2 (254)

Latest:- Oil $86•81. Vix 29•90.
Gold $1842. Copper $4•428.
Palm $1370. Silver $23•840.
$1•348. €1•191. Yen 113•714.
Yuan 6•328. FF +28. DF -323.
Morning all.

We slip on Panther Metals?....a subsidiary of ours? FFS!

The vast majority of low paid citizens & pensioners are seeing huge price rises on a wkly basis (tin of Heinz beans £1•30 at my local CO-OP) up from c.95 at Xmas. Basics are rapidly becoming unaffordable for many. Have you had a corresponding wage increase to reflect the huge rise in the cost of living?

No worries for our hard working MPs who are in line for a £2000 increase in their salaries this year. Current wage £82k pa (£1577) a wk, ex costs of running an office, paying staff and maintaining a London property for which they can no doubt claim. And pensioners? We can look forward to a 1% rise in the basic state pension in April when inflation will be running at 7%.

Dunno about you but as a single person I could scrape by on 1/3 of their weekly pay and save a few roubles for a pint or two and have 3 bars on my heater at home.

I missed out on the two bigest rides of my life, both could have been utterly life changing. In one case (Polly Peck) at 8p tipped to me by my local publican, which i pooh-poohed (oranges in boxes imported from Cyprus), you gotta be kidding!

The other Berkshire Hathaway at c.£500 for 1 share in the early 80s tipped me by an American golfer pal playing at my home Club in Porthcawl, S.Wales. Wot! c.£500 for 1 share, not a chance even though I had the cash. Clever dick me bght Sadbrokes and made about £100!

As you may know, PP shot up to £36 before the Co collapsed in 1991, the CEO Asil Nadir fleeing to Cyprus. BH never stopped going up and currently trades at c.$40,000. I console myself I would never have held on to see those rises but f***k me if only!! If Panthera does even a fraction of a fraction of those two, I will be more than happy.

I've made my bed here and here I'm staying. Do I feel lucky? It's the 3rd time so maybe if I hold my nerve.....

Asia-Pacific mrkts are mostly lower today as investors look ahead to the Fed meeting on Tues and Wed to discuss monetary policy.
Mainland Chinese mrkts are off opening lows but HK is hit by selling down 400 earlier and in Sydney the ASX 200 having been off 100 closed 36 down as banks and energy were sold.
Crude oil is c.$1 better and Gold is flat at $1836 but at a 2 month high as that other store of 'safe haven' territory tanked $8000 last week to c.$35,000.

Latest:- Oil $88•68. Vix 28•85.
Gold $1837. Copper $4•489.
Palm $1365. Silver $24•225.
$1•355. €1•196. Yen 113•933.
Yuan 6•332. FF -10. DF +270.
Morning all.

US stocks suffered their worst trading week since early 2020 as investors scrambled to dump tech and consumer staples. Becoming more concerned about persistent price rises and inflationary pressures on companies and consumers investors took the path of least resistance and that was get out of town.

Big tech has been looking toppy for over a year and the NSDQ is 13% below its recent record high of (16,573). The worst recently recorded Jan fall was 9% in 2019 (4th worst in 72 years). Currently

DJ -6%
SP -8%
NS -11%

The bigest casualty of the week was Netflix plunging $111 (22%) on poor Q4 subscriber nos, hardly surprising given lockdown restrictions easing most everywhere. Q1 is forecast to add just 2•1m (4m) new viewers. Other 'stay at home' stocks, Pelton & Zoom are being hammered as people slowly return to work.
Banks were hit as t/bills fell back to 1•76%. Energy is the only S&P sector showing gains this year (Brent +13%). Just 3 stocks on the big board closed up, Nike, Big Mac and P&G.

DJ -450 (34,265)
SP -85 (4398)
NS -408 (14,438)
R2 -18 (1282)
WTI $84•83
10ytb 1•763%

MCI(W) -57 (3025)
Gold Bugs -6 (256)

Close: Oil $87•90 Vix 28•85.
Gold $1836. Copper $4•519.
Palm $1335. Silver $24•345.
$1•355. €1•195. Yen 113•632.
Yuan 6•337.

Another 'no go' week for PAT holders but in the face of practically no buying the shares are holding up pretty darn well. Gold cont the rally of last two months closing at $1836 up $16 on the week and ytd has gained $6.

Wk3 (Cum)
Ftse +109 (7494)
Aim +61 (1156)
All +57 (4275)

Wk 3 (Cum)
PAT
------
Trades 65
T/vol.c.1•186m
Buy....c.0•123k
Sell....c.1•063m
Ratio (S) 89%
Ratio (S) 9:1
Av trd c.18,250
5 u/c
30 -10%
90 +15%
Ytd -6%
52 -51%

Wk 3
Cora 8•85 (u/c)
Grl 9•63 (-1%)
Hum 12•90 (-8%)
ORR 0•38 (-1%)
RRR 0•60 (-4%)

Morning all.

I note 88 energy listed on Aim and the ASX are now offering US investors a bite of the cherry on the US OTC. Just as well they have 14•8 billion shares in issue to go round!

I had some at 3 yonks ago not a winner for me. Can I see PAT trading on a pink sheet? Nah!