Member Info for JohnLewis79

I know how you feel mickey1122, very difficult to keep one's frustrations in check...I'm just the messenger after all. Let's hope on Wed we find out where we stand on this interminable license application. It's not helping the share price let alone frayed nerves!

However when you hear of the shocking events in Ukraine where innocent people are being murdered, maimed and uprooted from their homes by a brutal despot, we can count ourselves very lucky to be living in Britain. My worries over a case in a far off land pale into insignificance to events in Europe.

My thoughts are very much with the brave peoples of Ukraine.

West African junior miners cont to be unloved by investors partly due to a static gold price (ytd up 3%), geo politics and Co specific factors.

Ytd
Cora (-14%)
Grl (-24%)
Hum (u/c)
Orr (-4%)
PAT (-14%)
Rrr (u/c)
------
Auy (+20%
Bar (+22%)
Newcrest (+1%)
Newmont (+11%)
Rio (+15%)

Wk 8
PAT
Cum

Trades 180
T/vol 3•209m
Buys 0•971m
Sells 2•238m
Sell 70%
Av/trd 17,250

As expected the Dow ignored falls forecast by the futures mrkt and was soon treading the up escalator. The on'going invasion in Ukraine took a back seat to a nos of crucial economic numbers.

Economic data showed US personal spending rose more than forecast in Jan. A jump of 6% was the fastest rate in 40 years as the country cont to come out of lockdown restrictions, consumers with bulging pockets went on a spending spree. US consumer health is a valued driver of GDP and accounts for c.20%. However rising inflation which spiked to 7•5% affects gold prices as it puts more pressure on the Fed to raise rates......bad for gold which despite the geo political worries fell $11 on the week.

With the Dow up over 500 at lunch investors do not believe a global recession, let alone one in the US, which has zero exposure to Ukraine will happen. Earlier Asia warmed to the gains in America on Thursday the Nikkei gaining 505 but lost 646 on the 'war wk'.

As we near the end of wk 8 and its been the 2nd worst ever start to a year since 2000, despite the volatility this month the Dow is 1073 points lower. But yesterday the Dow posted its best day's gain in 2000, up 835 (2•5%). How or where we go from here is dependent on whether Kiev falls and thereafter.

DJ +835 (34,059)
SP +96 (4385)
NS +214 (14,189)
R2 +29 (1311)
WTI $91•94
10ytb 1•969

MSCI(W) +74 (2980)
Gold Bugs +4 (281)

Close:- Oil $94•56. Vix 27•59.
Gold $1890. Copper $4•487.
Palm $1640. Silver $24•310.
$1•342. €1•189. Yen 115•552.
Yuan 6•316.
Morning all.

I intend to LH as there's a feast of Rugby this wk end. Wales away to Eng are 6/1 against to come away with the spoils. That's worth a small punt. I cannot believe the bookies make Scot 9/4f to beat France so that's a saver should Wales get turned over.

Fair comment Lawrenceh... whatever I decide is irrelevant and should be a pointer to add! I will admit I have boxed myself in by doing the early morning updates which kinda gave me license to waffle. Frustration and gut feeling got the better of me as I had a nice bottle of Bolly lined up.... on a result...how silly was that? Whatever it slipped down well much to the amusement of free loaders cheering me on.....

ejt7777....I think you have answered your own questions...we know its a complete punt and we shouldn't get too excited about Court cases that are unlikely to be resolved in our favour.
(c'mon guys its a 100/1 shot).

So we wait for the next, then the next and so on...relying on W.Africa to bale us out is not particularly inviting. The FOMO has gone as far as I'm concerned and will assess by the w/k end whether its worth my holding on any longer.

I'm giving up...Jarndyce all over again..will this nonsense ever end?
Shysters on the clock are licking their lips....while holders get screwed. Nothing new there.

Yea a complete farce....its a total loss imo and investors need a reason to continue to hold PAT. I'm not sure the
risks warrant one to do so, given the mrkt hate W.African miners. Don't fool yourself that gold at $2000+ translates into PAT shares going up (they wont).

Given investors need as a matter of urgency the result of this hearing (indeed if it even was heard) and we have heard nothing, leads me to think no'one gives a flying f***k. MB needs to give holders an update and pronto.

Did anybody turn out?

It's gone 2:00pm in Delhi so unless the case is being held in camera we might get an announcement of sorts by our close today.....fingers crossed.

Woof woof...Nelson!!

My local bookie is offering 4/6 on no news, 1/3 can down the road and 4/5 shares fall below 10. About right i'd say. If the case is being heard in Delhi the time there is 10:13 am.

The Dow nose-dived over 800 soon after the bell, way better than some who were calling for a 1000+ fall. Biden is expected to unveil more sanctions when he speaks at 15:30 EST. Russian stocks slumped as much as 44% and the rouble tanked against the USD sparking fears of a severe economic crisis engulfing Russia as they are cut off from all forms of finance inc not being able to sell their Oil & gas.

Investors noting the Dow's near 3000 fall this month couldn't resist buying into a well oversold mrkt, the thinking being its going to be a short term incursion of perhaps 6-9 months before Putin withdraws his troops. That may be fanciful but at home many Russians are protesting about the invasion and thousands are being arrested. Putin isolated in Russia may find more trouble at home than he bargained for. Ukraine now fighting on multiple fronts has mobilised their entire army as thousands of citizens flee to neighbouring countries, Moldova, Hungary & Romania.

Investors fled to Gold pushing up the price to an intraday high of $1976 a near 8 yr high. T/bills slipped back to 1•96% (up 21% ytd). Brent hit $106 before traders trimmed gains. In the US mrkts are more concerned about the rising cost of living a 40 year high, inflation and supply snafus, (Ukraine has closed all its Ports) for oil and wheat than a local war in Europe. Biden preferring to keep ex KGB thug Putin at arms length via punitive sanctions rather than 'boots' on the ground.

At mid'day the Dow was well off lows (858) trading down 525, the 500 off 51 and the Nsdq 66 lower after an early plunge of 444, the days low. With little sign of panic investors jumped back buying beaten down stocks pushing up the Dow over 800 points on a strong afternoon relief rally to close in the black for the day.

DJ +92 (33,224)
SP +63 (4289)
NS +465 (13,925)
R2 +21 (1282)
WTI $95•20
10ytb 1•961

MSCI(W) -3 (2906)
Gold Bugs -6 (276)

Latest:- Oil $98•30. Vix 30•32.
Gold $1915. Copper $4•496.
Palm $1685. Silver $24•385.
$1•340. €1•195. Yen 115•294.
Yuan 6•316. FF +82. DF -86.
Morning all.

Evening Pollack I bght my first share in 1968'ish with a £10 loan from my father. It was National Provincial Bank shares where my Dad had his account. Can't remember the details but I know I made a few quid. I got the bug and thought myself a high roller....of course in those days one had to ring up your broker if you could access one and wait for confirmation and the sp in the D.Telegraph the following day. My Dad set me up with his broker James Capel in London.

As I became more savvy I traded in 'the account' which meant you had 10 days to decide whether to take up the stock or sell at the end of the account period, paying the difference be it a loss or profit. In other words you never had to put up the money in the first instance you hoped you could sell for more than you paid. Not everyone could access this facility for obvious reasons. The drawback was it encouraged gambling and over trading, which I did!

I caught a cold in the '87 stock mrkt crash when I could not exit my positions as brokers refused to answer phones that Monday morning. My Broker was stranded in Kent unable to reach London due to one of the worst storms ever. By the time I cleared my positions on the TuesdayI was thousands out of the money. It took me nigh on 5 years to get back to par.
I kept a core portfolio of 5 stocks for many years, Thorn EMI, Trafalgar House, M&S, Shell Transport & Grand Met which all did very well. Always made my own decisions and never bght Broker recommends!

Nowdays I'm punting in Aim backwaters hoping to catch a 'blue sky' Miner. Now't doing so far!!

Yea the mrkts are all over the place waiting for the US to open. Some huge crazy falls, RR back on the right track slumped to 100 but some miners are holding up (Hocschild) and little ol PAT steady at near lows. Polymetal is getting slaughtered (assets in Russia)
so very much a watch and wait. Wish I had some spare!!! I only have PAT and a joint interest in Zam so I don't have to worry too much.

Dow futures for the 2nd day saw gains smartly reversed as the 30 fell fom the bell and at lunch was 265 lower. The (3) main indexes extended yesterday's losses as hopes for a Summit meeting were dashed when the two Foreign Secretary's decided it was pointless they meet.

For US investors the geo politic concerns complicate the next move by the Fed for if the 'status quo' holds we will see a limited impact on growth and inflation. However should a fully fledged invasion occur with more sanctions it will be a very different world. Oil could jump 20% which would knock 1% off GDP and push inflation to c.9% and stocks 20% lower from here. While we are no nearer a resolution to the conflict a cyber attack on the Ukraine State Web sites added to the confusion. It now seems a foregone conclusion Russia will invade. So far selling has been steady, no rushing for the exits.

Economic nos saw mortgage applications at their lowest since Dec, a 3rd weekly decline and Companies reporting saw Lowes the 2nd bigest home improvement Co in the US beat Q4 forecasts and raised F/Y guidance. Stock rose $10 to $222.

On the Big Board Chevron topped the gainers with J&J and Intel but going down Cat, Cisco and Visa were in the red. Elon Musk was pleased to hear the Justice Dept was investigating short sellers of Tesla stock which tumbled $56 to $767. Ytd Tesla is down $434 (36%).

Stocks closed at their low point on the day with the Nsdq 17% down ytd, a lot of the cream of recent is being wiped away. Both the 500 and small caps are over 10% down with the DJI off 9%. Feb has seen investors dump 2000 points off the Dow as of yesterday. Futures are all over the place and are calling the Dow 680 lower at open & the ftse off 170...ouch!

Still Gold is climbing on war tensions. A full scale war could see Gold Cross $2250 with $3000 a distinct possibility if the war gets really ugly with thousands of casualties. Stocks in Asia have the jitters but selling is being managed, the Nikkei off 2% & Shanghai c.1% lower. No'one is jumping out of windows just yet.

DJ -464 (33,132)
SP -79 (4225)
NS -361 (13,509)
R2 -19 (1260)
WTI $93•21
10ytb 1•960%

MSCI(W) -40 (2909)
Gold Bugs +5 (282)

Latest:- Oil $96•78. Vix 31•02.
Gold $1931. Copper $4•458.
Palm $1640. Silver $24•890.
$1•351. €1•203. Yen 115•018.
Yuan 6•314. FF -160. DF -700.
Morning all.

You have a lot more 'hopium' than me mickey1122.

JVP announcement out to 10/11.
Lump on mickey1122!

Cairn Energy final arbitration award. Compensation claimed by Cairn was $5584m out of which $1232m was awarded on the 21/12/2020.
Since then the dispute cont with Cairn suing Air India and seizing Indian assets in Paris ( later denied by India).

An update was issued when the Govt changed the retrospective tax law enabling Cairn to be repaid. The dispute has been running since 2014. As of Jan 2022 Cairn had not rec'd a penny of the expected $1•06bn tax refund.