Member Info for JohnLewis79

A 2 day drop of 1030 took the Dow to a 358 loss on the week as Biden and the UK Govt advised citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. Biden and Putin are expected to talk today in attempt to resolve Russia concerns of Ukraine joining NATO. Ukraine has borders with Russia and the EU and Russian is widely spoken in Ukraine.

Investors worry about energy supplies in the event of military action which have pushed up crude prices to a 7 year high of $95. Gold jumped $23 yesterday to close at $1861 as Russia prepares to seize territory in Ukraine. Should Russia invade gold is predicted to climb past $1950.

US sentiment tumbled to 10 year low as noted on the closely watched University of Michigan sentiment index. Consumers see real wealth declining and cost of living rising.

On mrkts Chevron was one of only 4 stocks closing UP on the big board. Boeing, Nike and Salesforce propping up the losers. Stocks of Defence Contractors rose sharply, Lockheed Martin (3%) and Northrop (5%). Nvidia ($239) sank 7% as it failed to take over UK chipmaker ARM Holdings. The Co reports Q4 nos next week.

DJ -504 (34,738)
SP -85 (4419)
NS -451 (14,254)
R2 -3 (1301)
WTI $93•90
10ytb 1•943%

MSCI(W) -49 (3039)
Gold Bugs +15 (265)

Close:- Oil $95•10. Vix 27•36.
Gold $1861. Copper $4•439.
Palm $1430. Silver $23•600.
$1•356. €1•195. Yen 115•211.
Yuan 6•353.
Morning all.

Well that was a first, a whole week without a single buy trade! Sells were mainly small lots from bored or disgruntled holders fed up with the lack of news and a moribund sp.

At times that's the way things pan out and one has to have the discipline to not let your emotions force you into making rash decisions. The grass on the other side may look greener but rarely imo does it stay greener.

Wk6
PAT
Cum
-------
Trades 114
T/vol 1•659m
Buys 0•160m
Sells 1•499m
S/Ratio 90%
S/B Ratio 9:1
Av trd 14,550
5 (u/c)
30 (-2%)
90 (u/c)
Ytd (-8%)
52 (-47%)

Wk6
-------
Cora (-4%)
Grl (- 0•6%)
Hum (+10%)
Orr (+7%)
RRR (u/c)
-------
Ytd
-----
Brent ($95•10) +22%
Gold ($1861) +2%

That's the way with junior miners a constant need for cash. A placing or JV is the quick route leaving pis out of the money and being diluted in the process. So to avoid that if you have any spare best top up now to the tune of c.10%-20% of your holding.

The Dow opened down nearly 300 soon after the bell as dealers took profits but as has been the want of late buyers soon appeared taking the Dow back to a small gain by 10:30 am. These whipsaw moves are fine for 'specialists' on the NYSE floor but hair raising for stay at home investors. This mornings early gainers were Disney & Coca Cola (results), Boeing & JPMC (early buyers).

A key inflation report showed a faster than expected rise in prices to 7•5% y-o-y, a near 40 yr high which boosted the 10yr t/bill to over 2%. At 7% inflation your purchasing power will erode rapidly probably well into high double figs if over a prolonged period of 5 years or more.

Techs were clobbered Msoft off 2% and Apple and Amazon down 1%, leaving the Dow and the Nsdq both 100 lower at lunch. In after lunch moves the Dow slumped to the low point of the day (35,101). Most of the drop was blamed on Fed President Bullard from St Louis who said he favours a 100 basis point rise in July which could take rates to near 5% by 2023. The last time rates were this high was 2007.

Companies reporting inc Dow component Disney whose Q1 nos beat the 'Street's' forecasts for eps and revs as total subscribers came in at c.130m (125m) and are aiming to grow the base to 230-260m by 2024. Theme Parks enjoyed a big boost as visitor nos boosted revs and operating profits to $2•5bn (L100k). Shares rose 4% to $154 in early dealings.

Coca Cola also topped Walls estimates on revs and eps, the shares rose a modest 2% to $62 and trade up 5% ytd. WB's Berkshire Hathaway has a 400m share holding in Coke with unrealised gains of c.$24 bn. BH rec'd a $672m dividend cheque last year and has been a holder of the Cola drink Co for 27 years. It's one of his famous 'forever' holdings.

In other economy news wkly jobless claims came in slightly above hopes at 223,000. Gold was on the go'go ($1841) as London closed and crude was near $93 on the Rusky Bear threat to Ukraine. Europe faces its bigest crisis in decades... but World War 3, are the war drums beating that loud?

DJ -526 (35,242)
SP -83 (4504)
NS -351 (14,706)
R2 -18 (1304)
WTI $89•80
10ytb 2•033%

Latest:- Oil $91•25. Vix 23•91.
Gold $1824. Copper $4•594.
Palm $1430. Silver $23•070.
$1•353. €1•189. Yen 116•073.
Yuan 6•361. FF -73. DF -180.
Morning all.

Futures pointed to a bright start for US equity mrkts and so it came to pass. The Dow surged 280 soon after the bell rang, led by Disney, Amex & Nike followed by 1% gains on the 500, Tech & Small caps.

At the wks halfway stage the Dow has gained (2%)/705 points as investors become more positive about the recovery. T/bills eased to 1•916% off recent highs which helped the Nsdq100 to gain 200 in the first hour as techs report supply snarl up's easing and investors piling into FAANGs. F/bk which had slumped 32% last week joined in the broad based tech rally gaining 6% to $232 on 86m traded but still $107 lower ytd.

Worries cont about high inflation as the mrkts expect the Fed to aggressively raise rates and reduce the size of its balance sheet this year. That would drive less money into Bond mrkts lowering the yield and lifting prices. In the past Bond investors demanded a rate of return equal to, if not higher than the inflation rate. That's not happening anytime soon...

Not helping the recovery, data about consumer spending saw household debt increase to over $1tn in 2021 the most since 2007, as the public splurged to buy big tckt items on tick. Add in rate rises and inflation, consumers will be tightening the purse strings which wont help the economy to grow in H2. Mortgage applications slumped 8% as rising rates deferred house purchases by c.10%.

Companies reporting include Lyft the cab operator that topped revs and profits forecasts, shares were up 6% at $43 and flat ytd. Uber the San Fransisco based ride hailer & food delivery Co reported revs up 83% to $5•8bn and its most active users ever, shares rose 5% to $40.
At close
---------
DJ +305 (35,768)
SP +66 (4587)
NS +310 (15,057)
R2 +15 (1322)
WTI $89•73
10ytb 1•930%

Latest:- Oil $91•33. Vix 19•96.
Gold $1835. Copper $4•614.
Palm 1420. Silver 23•285.
$1•353. €1•184. Yen 115•620
Yuan 6•357. FF +1. DF -5.
Morning all.

Despite futures ticking up in pre mrkt trading the 500 slipped 16 at the bell as investors digested a report from the BOA that there's more downside to equities this year. Due in part to the mrkt tending to struggle after the first rate hike of a Fed tightening cycle.

However a BOA technical research strategist pointed out mrkts pick up for the 5- 6 & 12 month periods after the initial increase. At lunch buyers had pushed the Dow up 310 in part on bond yields nearing 2% and buyers back in for Nsdq 100 and Banks gaining on higher t/bill yields.

The first major to report was Pfizer whose rev nos doubled from $41 to $81bn thanks to $37bn of its covid vaccine but the shares ($51•35) fell 6% on news that their vaccine sales this year will be some $2bn below forecasts. CFO D'Amelio said there was less potential upside this year due to the success of their vaccine during the height of the pandemic. F/Y profits rose from $9bn to $22bn. The shares have been a dud as ytd the stock is down 10%, closing the session at $51•70. Astra Zeneca the other big vaccine producer report nos later this week along with WBs fave tipple Coca Cola.

Peloton who have a new CEO (ex Spotify CFO) will report nos later after sacking 2800 workers and now trade back above their IPO. Shares up $7 to ($37) on the news valuing the Co at $11bn. At best the mrkt expects a bid of around $40-45 a share. However much will depend on customers returning to gyms and paying up front.

The mrkt tracked sideways through the pm session until a late surge took the Dow up (371) to its best close for a week followed closely by techs and the 500 both gaining c.1%, strongly supported by Co earnings on the 500.

DJ +371 (35,463)
SP +38 (4522)
NS +176 (14,747)
R2 +23 (1308)
WTI $89•71
10ytb 1•948%

MSCI(W) +18 (3077)
Gold Bugs +4 (259)

Latest:- Oil $91•14. Vix 21•44.
Gold $1829. Copper $4•471.
Palm $1445. Silver $23•305.
$1•356. €1•186. Yen 115•424.
Yuan 6•360. FF +66. DF +133.
Morning all.

As we know higher int rates are usually bearish for Gold as money will always chase higher returns (gold relying on the next man paying more than you). The 10ytb is knocking 2% well below current CPI of 7% but it's risk free which has to be worth another 1-1•5% points to sleep well at night.

We're led to believe there is no correlation between rates and Gold prices as a long term look through historical data indicates. However through the 1970s rates chased Gold higher. In 1973/4 Gold prices surged by c.60% at a time when rates were rising to double figs and the S&P 500 dropped 20%. During the protracted bear mrkt in Gold during the 1980s rates were falling steeply.

In the bull mrkt for gold during 2003-2013 rates declined as Gold gained. So to sum up I believe there is little evidence of a direct sustained correlation because we have seen rising rates and falling gold and declining rates and rising gold.

Supply and demand are the main drivers of Gold prices, demand being the stronger component and as Gold is denominated in USD the $ price has a bearing as well for when the greenback falls you can buy more gold which results in increased demand.

When and if we suffer a significant stock mrkt correction as many are calling, Gold will be the first alternative investors look at, whether physical or paper and who knows we might be in for a re-run of the 1970s which would be very good for junior gold explorers beaten down to these low valuations. For after all an ounce of gold in the ground is worth somewhere between zero and the current spot price.

That being so our gold in ground which worst way is 1m ozs is valued at $15m, nearer zero than $181m (V=QxP). So to sum up gold is one sector i sure don't want to be out of....with Russia, Turkey & China sniffing around in Mali.

US stocks turned down after a positive start to the week, the Dow up 136 by mid morning soon came under selling pressure falling 96 by mid'day. A raft of economic nos and Co reports are due later this week. Companies reporting include Disney, Uber, Lyft and Pfizer.

Stocks on the move included Peloton up $4 to $29 on talk that Amazon & Nike are interested bidders, though the dual class share structure could be a stumbling block. Pelton has had a shocking 52 weeks falling $116 (80%) as demand for the indoor fitness bikes and treadmills plunged. A recall in the US of their treadmills damaged sentiment already at a low as gymnasiums struggled to re-open. Once valued at $50bn it's now worth barely $8bn.

Others in the headlines inc budget carrier Frontier Group who has unveiled plans to merge with Spirit Airlines to create the 5th largest US carrier in a $2•9bn tie up. However they face regulatory approval but its felt it will be nodded through on the basis of being a no frills ultra cheap carrier.

US CPI nos are due Thursday where economists are looking at a rise to 7•2% on an annual basis to Jan suggesting along with the strong payroll report the economy has recovered sufficiently to warrant a tightening of credit to slow the economy. The Fed meets on Wed. Equities would seem to concur as over 50% of the S&P have reported Q nos at the top end of earnings forecasts, running at an average 29% growth rate which would be the 4th straight Q over 25%.

Many Brokers are citing a liquidity crisis on the NYSE which has been on a downward spiral for years. Many blame tighter regulation that has discouraged risk taking by Brokers and traders and passive investing by private investors. This has resulted in buy and sell orders at unattractive prices not helped by the 'machines' pulling back liquidity when volatility spikes. After a crazy up down up down session the mrkts closed as below.

DJ +1 (35,091)
SP -16 (4484)
NS -123 (14,571)
R2 +1 (1285)
WTI $91•55
10ytb 1• 950%

MSCI(W) -2 (3059)
Gold Bugs +9 (255)

Latest:- Oil $92•88. Vix 22•86.
Gold $1821. Copper $4•465.
Palm $1445. Silver $22•960.
$1•352. €1•950. Yen 115•469.
Yuan 6•306. FF +12. DF -30.
Morning all.

I used to hold M&S eons ago and haven't followed the Co since "what's his name of the socks" was in charge. A fair old slump of 45% last 6 months but no doubt on line and covid have taken their share of retail sales. Not a sector I like with rates, inflation and cost of living worries.

Mainland China mrkts rose after the long Lunar New Year holidays. In morning trade the SHCOMP gained 2% (64) points as traders reacted to mixed cues from the 'Street' on rates and inflation and some dip buying after c.100 point falls in late Jan.

HK & SK slipped but other Asia-Pacific mrkts are all ahead. Weakness in Gold and financials put a brake on Australian mrkts, slightly offset by gains in energy. Gold is rangebound c.$1800 after the 50 basis rate hike. Investors await US inflation nos this week. Mrkts are expecting another 50 basis points rise in March so with rising bond yields, never good for Gold prices one would expect Gold to fall back but currently there are buyers supporting Gold below $1800.

Brent crude rose to its highest level this year ($94) after comments from White House Security advisor that a Russian invasion could be imminent.
Its said that the EV (electric vehicle) sector will hurt oil faster than many think. However the consensus is that EV might eventually displace c.21m bopd but this will take decades before the impact is truly felt by the fossil fuel sector. Gobal consumption of oil is c.98m bopd with reserves est at 47 years at current usage.

Latest:- Oil $93•60. Vix 23•22.
Gold $1811. Copper $4•477. Palm $1410. Silver $22•795.
$1•353. €1•183. Yen 115•244.
Yuan 6•332. FF +33. DF +4.
Morning all.

Two events drove US mrkts higher yesterday. Firstly the US economy created far more jobs in Jan than anyone forecast, some 467,000 employed across all industries against a consensus 156,000. The unemployment rate was steady at 4% and average hourly earnings rose •7% up c.6% y-o-y. Labour participation grew to 62% the highest nos of Americans in work since 2020.

The second was Amazon's positive earnings nos after a mixed bag of results from other tech companies. The price hike of $20 on their popular Prime members scheme pleased investors as did their cloud computing & Web services businesses. Sales grew in Q4 by 9% to a record $139bn and net income came in at $14bn, helped by its Rivian holding. Shares jumped 14% to $3151 adding $191bn to its mrkt cap the highest single day gain in US stock mrkt history.

While the Dow traded lower the Nsdq100 flew up 331 but fell back late on for a closing gain of 193. The 500 up 62 slipped, closing 23 better. US 10yr t/bill rose to 1•9% on expectations the Fed will take a more aggressive stance on raising rates to combat inflation boosted by the jobs report.

Gold remained resilient in the face of the Labour report on jobs and trades near par for the year. OPEC+ maintained its 400,000 bpd supply increase for March despite supply constraints and Ukraine concerns. Brent gained 4% on the wk and 19% ytd.

DJ -12 (35,090)
SP +23 (4501)
NS +193 (14,694)
R2 u/c (1284)
WTI $91•93
10ytb 1•913%

MSCI(W) +9 (3061)
Gold Bugs u/c (246)

Close:-.Oil $92•52. Vix 23•22
Gold $1809. Copper $4•506.
Palm $1410. Silver $22•520.
$1•353. €1•181. Yen 115•207.
Yuan 6•359.

Certainly the lowest wks vol (98k) without a single buy trade since I've been invested here. Even at this low sp few are much bothered even to take a punt. Since wk 1 just 11 trades have been buys. We pretty much know why so I'm not going to rehash past comments, the facts speak for
themselves.

PAT
Wk 5
Cum
-------
Trades 98
Vol 1•541m
Buy 0•160m
Sell 1•381m
Ratio 89% (sell)
Trd 9:1(sell)
Av/trd 15,725
5 u/c
30 - 8%
90 +7%
Ytd -8%
52 -54%

Ftse +131 (7516)
Aim -127 (1090)
All +7 (4225)

Ytd
-----
Crude $92•52 (+18%)
Gold $1809 (-1%)

Morning all.

Will the hoped for good news come in time to smooth the way for the 'begging bowl' being offered to PAT investors shortly (see RNS interim results).

I'm not sure I would participate in any raise currently without JVP/ Bhukia assurances. Gold is not expected to move higher until H2, if then and given high inflation helps reduce the real value of US debt we may not get what we want if equities are impacted by t/bills offering a risk free 3%.

You'd still be losing money but not as much! So unless stock(s) you hold are paying you for the 'risk' via dividends or sp appreciation and Gold is considerably higher, its a clear choice imo if your holding PAT.

For the 'undecideds' we should have a clearer picture by the HY, as sentiment towards junior explorers, pretty much the bottom line imo, may have changed for the better by then. It certainly needs to!

A near 16% jump in Amazon's stock after hours sent Dow futures higher pointing to a better start on the final day of trading. The Nsdq may have lost 639 yesterday but Nsdq futures are looking at a 305 opening gain which if sustained will see the sector close higher on the week. Not quite Armageddon yet!

Stocks were on the back foot from the bell the Nsdq tumbled 365 following F/bks downbeat Q4 report which missed estimates and jolted other techs on the index. The Co said user growth had slowed to a trickle and had lost c.1m daily active users.
Meta (f/bk) is the 4th largest component in the Nsdq 100.

The stock is off $85 to $238 in early moves that's a 26% drop and has now slumped from $327 on Wednesday tanking its value by $200bn that's more than many countries entire economic gdp. More than 90 tech listed Nsdq stocks are falling and Amazon ($2808) which reports after the close is off $204 a fall of 7%. Amazon will be the last of the big 5 FAANGs to report. They account for c.25% of the total mrkt capitalisation of the entire S&P 500 sector.

The turbulence among techs is bearing on the wider mrkts the Dow falling 360 at lunch with the 500 also off nearly 2%. Just 2 stocks on the big board had more than a 1% gain, United Health (+1•5%) and P&G (1%).

The Labour Dept official monthly jobs report is out Friday and consensus is for c.150,000 non farm payrolls returned to work in Jan, a nos that would mark the slowest pace of hiring since 12/2020 as the covid data catches up with the economic data.

By close the the Nsdq(100) had plunged 3•75% (639) and 10/11 sectors were in the red. The 10ytb rose 5 basis to 1•82% and Brent & WTI topped $90. Gold bounced off an 'oversold' session low of $1788.

DJ -518 (35,111)
SP -112 (4477)
NS -639 (14501)
R2 -19 (1283)
WTI $90•93
10ytb 1•851%

MSCI(W) -61 (3052)
Gold Bugs -3 (246)

Latest:- Oil $91•52. Vix 24•35.
Gold $1808. Copper $4•50.
Palm 1425. Silver $22•510.
$1•360. €1•186. Yen 114•854.
Yuan 6•359. FF +45. DF +185.
Morning all.

Stocks gained from the bell in an unusually sedate manner as earnings nos continue to top Wall's estimates. AMD rose 2% ($120) after the chip maker reported a 92c a share earnings on sales of $4•8bn as the Co is taking mrkt share from its competitors. Other techs Nvidia & Quaalcom, nos due later, rose on the news.

These big Nsdq tech stocks have been doing all the heavy lifting these last few years and have been very well rewarded by investors. For instance Google ($2969) and AMD ($120) account for c.5% of the total mrkt cap of the S&P 500. Google is up from $800 in 2017 that's a c.260% increase and AMD up from $12 in 2017 for a c.900% gain! Apple the most valuable Co in the world has gained 441% since 2017.

In future the mrkt will demand even larger outperformance to lift prices. After the Jan pull back/correction in tech, the 500 trades on a shade under 20x earnings multiple, not expensive by past standards. As for instance Jan 2021 it was (36x) and back in 2009 (71x).

Elsewhere PayPal ($129) slumped 27% on poor Q1 nos and missed user growth targets. Starbucks ($96) slipped after lowering profit forecasts blaming omicron and China footfall drops. Meta (F/bk) issued Q4 nos which disappointed as higher costs and slowing growth was not what investors wanted to hear. Stock fell 23% to $249 after hours tanking its mrkt cap by $175bn, more than the value of RDS(A+B)! By the close the Dow had gained 224 points but Nsdq futures plunged 300+ on the F/bk news.

As a matter of interest the Dow started life in 1896 with 12 stocks later became 30 in 1928 where it has remained to this day. GE no longer a constituent had a 122 year run on the Dow before booted out in 2018. It sold for $108 a share in 1892.

DJ +224 (35,629)
SP +43 (4589)
NS +120 (15,140)
R2 -7 (1302)
WTI $87•73
10ytb 1•767%

MSCI(W) +27 (3114)
Gold Bugs u/c (249)

Latest:- Oil $89•11. Vix 22.
Gold $1807. Copper $4•477.
Palm $1490. Silver $22•735.
$1•356. €1•200. Yen 114•392.
Yuan 6•359. FF -3. DF -12. NDF -329. Morning all.

Hi, Pollack. I haven't heard anything about Bhukia at all. Hope MB will update us to what's happening at the next drill /assays RNS. It's fingers crossed at best as far as I'm concerned given how contrary the Indian legal system seems to be, they are past master's of time wasting and kicking Red taped cans down the road with little consideration of the benefits to the Govt and people of Rajasthan once the mine is in production.

Another day another $ gained for US stocks recovering from a torrid January, investors buying the dips pushed the 3 major indexes up for the 3rd straight day (Nsdq 4/5) led by Banks as the 10y/tbill rose to 1•82%.

The 500 has put on c.4% thanks to a raft of big company names beating the Streets forecasts. Exxon posted its highest 4Q nos for 7 years shares up 7% to $81, though AT&T ($24) fell on halving the dividend to $1•11c.
Google beat expectations as revs rose 32%, eps up 13%, shares surged $250 after hours to $3005. The Co also announced a 20 for 1 stock split which will make the stock more affordable to investors at c.$130.

Lower down the leagues Meme stocks AMC and Gamestop beloved by Robin Hood punters both topped expectations. Investors are flocking to AMC cinemas to watch the film "Rise of the Players" a documentary based on the famous Reddit Short Squeeze which caught Wall St professionals with their pants down.

DJ +273 (35,405)
SP +31 (4547)
NS +90 (15,020)
R2 +10 (1309)
WTI $88•43
10ytb 1•792%

MSCI(W) +28 (3087)
Gold Bugs +1 (248)

Latest:- Oil $89•50. Vix 21•96
Gold $1798. Copper $4•438.
Palm $1420. Silver $22•660.
$1•352. €1•199. Yen 114•732.
Yuan 6•359. FF +58. DF +14.
Morning all.

Morning Pollack. I reckon investors/holders are sitting on their hands awaiting further drill news and daren't risk buying ahead for fear they don't please investors.

That's a sensible play as we know from previous RNS's the share price has generally moved lower partly due to being in an unloved sector where sentiment is poor and no buyers of note. We shall have to wait & see if there's a 'changing' coming.......

" As January goes, so does the rest of the year", is a hoary old stock mrkt chestnut. If so, then investors are in for a very challenging year as the Dow, 500, Nsdq & Small caps fell, 3%, 5%, 8% & 7% respectively. Londons ftse managed a 1% rise. While covid/omicron cases are declining in most States, int rates, inflation & Ukraine concerns are increasingly worrying investors of the likely damage to global economies this and next year.

In early trading the Dow put on 200 by lunch as 6/11 S&P sectors were ahead led up by big tech though decliners on the NYSE out-numbered risers by 1•3:1. Tesla & Netflix both under the cosh recently gained $91 & $46 after Brokers upgraded both companies to "outperform" Tesla gained 11% yesterday recouping the months losses.

Gold ticked up $5 ($1798) as shorts covered in the futures mrkt and bargain hunters bght in the cash mrkts. Many think Gold should be $2000 given 7% inflation and c.double that in the real world. As more and more people are retiring this has come at the worst possible time where savings are being eroded by inflation and historic low rates. The Fed are rumoured to initially raise rates in March by •50%.

Later this week Google, Meta (F/bk) and Amazon are due to report 4Q nos following strong reports from Apple & Msoft. As of last week 33% of the 500 have posted Q4 nos and 77% have beaten expectations. An afternoon rally on the mrkts ended a dismal month all round, the 500 posting its worst month since 3/2020.

DJ +406 (35,132)
SP +84 (4516)
NS +475 (14,930)
R2 +27 (1299)
WTI $88•40
10ytb 1•774%

MSCI(W) +53 (3059)
Gold Bugs +7 (247)

Latest:- Oil $89•61. Vix 24•83.
Gold $1797. Copper $4•317.
Palm $1500. Silver 22•420.
$ 1•344. €1•196. Yen 114•953.
Yuan 6•359. FF +43. DF -66.
Morning all.