Member Info for JohnLewis79

The Dow never got into plus territory despite Dow futures indicating a positive start. By 1:00pm the Dow was down 363 following falls across Asia. Londons ftse pulled out of a 120 opening fall to close up 10 points as events turned out to be less traumatic than first thought.

Ukraine worries has seen the UK & US impose a raft of sanctions. The US has specifically targeted the 2 Russia backed Republics prohibiting new investment, trade financing by individuals and Companies with connections to Ukraine.

Britain's first tranche of sanctions are aimed at 5 Rusian Banks so as to disrupt commercial activities and 3 high net worth billionaire individuals have seen their assets frozen as well as being banned from entering the country. Further sanctions are being held in readiness should matters escalate. So far so lukewarm.

Germany has stopped the certification process for Nord Stream 2 the longest underwater gas pipe line in the world running under the Baltic Sea to Germany. Nord Stream 2 is owned by Gaz Prom of Russia. Australia, Japan & Canada have joined the sanctions force leaving Russia more isolated than ever.

On the economic front US consumer confidence declined for the 2nd consecutive month in Feb but business activity accelerated though home price growth stalled in Dec 2021. Companies reporting saw Macy's 4Q nos beat forecasts the shares at first rose to $28 but later slipped back and Home Depot also topped estimates hitting $150bn in sales for the first time ever and despite a 15% hike in the dividend the shares sank $31 to $316 at lunch.

At mid'day just 4 companies were up on the big board, Big Mac, Cat, Honeywell & Travellers. Going south Boeing, Home Depot and Nike.
all weighing heavily on the 30.
The 500 has entered 'correction' territory, 10% down ytd as has the Nsdq off 15% ytd.

Bucking the bearish views of most brokers JPMC is calling a 'Spring Rally' as inflation peaks and Russia/Ukraine tensions subside. The Bank is bullish on energy, travel, mining, travel & autos.

DJ -482 (33,597)
SP -44 (4305)
NS -139 (13,871)
R2 -19 (1279)
WTI $92•27
10ytb 1•944%

MSCI(W) -34 (2950)
Gold Bugs -5 (278)

Latest :- Oil 94•06. Vix 28.81.
Gold $1897. Copper $4•512.
Palm $1592. Silver $24•255.
$1•359. €1•200. Yen 115•023.
Yuan 6•327. FF +21. DF +161.
Morning all.

Much as facts can be distorted or 'schmoozed' some nos are undisputed. In PAT'S case buys v sells & %'s there-of.

Ytd
Sells 2•8:1
Sells 74%

Against those nos it's going to be hard to see much progress without a paradigm shift in sentiment and a 'result' in India. Dependent on the latter poses it's own unique problem for holders given that India is not accustomed to sharing it's resources with foreign companies.

For instance Cairn but also another shocking example of the Govts attitude was Devas Multimedia who entered into agreement with the Indian Space Research Org to launch satellites and a broadband network. The Govt arbitrarily cancelled the investment a few years later costing Devas their investment and profits.
Devas sued and won a $bn award which the Govt ignored and moved to liquidate the Co.

That may be about to change and come the 25th we will know a lot more about the Govt's attitude to joint partnerships with foreign companies. Given the above example does MB and Fasken seriously believe the leopard has changed its spots?

My post of 17:14 is a long winded version of...

'Up sh*t creek without a paddle' or a Catch 22 situation (you must be sane but mad to try) or in bookmakers terms 4/7 on can down the road, 1/4 against PAT being awarded a licence, 0/0 no JVP announcement and 1/2 on shares to fall, so says my 'Crystal Ball.'

My fortune telling batting average is really, really bad, so of the 4 predictions I'll be lucky to get 1 right, heh,heh heh.

US stock and bond mrkts were closed for President's Day. As of last wk 84% of S&P Co's had reported Q4 earnings with an est growth in aggregate of 31% compared to Q3 of 40%. A number of major retailers will be reporting nos later this week, Home Depot, Macys, Lowes and Tjx, along with a whole raft of economic nos.

*****

Overnight Putin sent his Jack booted troops into South Eastern Ukraine on the pretext of 'peace-keeping' duties. The West sees this as an 'occupation' and a blatant act of aggression. How the West will react to this flagrant act of knavery we shall see but a meeting between Biden and Putin looks dead in the water. Whatever Putin needs to pay a huge price for such a gross breach of international law. The PM will be chairing a Cobra meeting and is set to announce significant sanctions today.

*****

Mrkts in Asia banking on diplomacy are a sea of red, oil is over $97 and the Nikkei fell 670, Hong Kong 830 & Shanghai 50 lower. Pan Pacifics are all down c.2%. London is called 50 lower while NY is set to open better.

Latest:- Oil $97. Vix 28.
Gold $1911. Copper $4•491.
Palm $1555. Silver $24•225.
$1•359. €1•202 Yen 114•694.
Yuan 6•339. FF -38.DF +130.
Morning all.

Come Friday the 25th are we about to witness an irresistible force meeting an immovable object? Sometimes referred to as the shield and spear dilemma of ancient Chinese origin.

This paradox has connotations in PATs efforts to move forward the obdurate Indian Legal system. So if there's no definitive answer where does that leave us if neither can affect each others momentum?

PAT would enter the Ftse All Share Rankings list at no (658) if the sp hit 25•75p, in effect doubling from current.

Star786 I take your point about a "piddly PI" but I look at this way, piddly or not I'm a part owner of the Co and would want to be treated as such by the management.

Russia/Ukraine worries cont to dominate sentiment in Asia as investors stay on the side lines. Tokyo is 230 lower & Shanghai which had climbed for the last 4 days and HK are also off the pace. US stocks fell 2% across the main 3 indices last wk, the sell off taking them through support levels has led to a nervous start across Asia & Pan Pacifica. However Asian currencies are better on hopes of a summit meeting between Biden and Putin. Biden cancelling a two day visit to Delaware was interpreted as him planning a visit to Europe.

The Credit Suisse revelation on Sunday that a whistle-blower had informed the authorities the bank could be holding as much as $100bn in 18,000 criminal and fraudster organisations accounts had little impact on Asian Bank stocks. One thing..... there's no safe place to stash your cash, not even in a Swiss Bank account. Credit Suisse denies any wrongdoing.

Latest:- Oil $97•21. Vix 27•75.
Gold $1894. Copper $4•529.
Palm $1520. Silver $23•785.
$1•362. €1•199. Yen 114•984.
Yuan 6•327. FF +21. DF+124.
Morning all.

DJ -233 (34,079)
SP -31 (4349)
NS -162 (14,010)
R2 -7 (1298)
WTI $91•66
10ytb 1•928%

MSC1 (3054)
Gold Bugs -2 (283)

Surprise Surprise an RNS and the shares ticked up 0•37p. A few buyers were encouraged to come out of the woodwork lifting volumes, though trades were pitifully low. Buys outpaced sells this week by 2•6:1 but nowhere near the sell volumes on a (ytd) basis.

Many investors are wondering where economies will be in a year or more with geo political tensions and high inflation which should prove good for gold this year. Not sure it has any baring on W.African junior explorers share prices, where the main concern is high grade gold in ground and a stable political situation.

Wk7
Cum
PAT
------
Trades. 142
T/vol. 2•197m
Buys. 0•547m
Sells. 1•650m
------
Ytd
Cora. (-10%)
GRL. (-23%)
HUM. (+9%)
ORR. (+1•5%)
PAT. (-3%)
RRR. (+14%)
------
Ytd
Gold (+4%)
Brent (+20%)
------

Ask MB.

Rugs 2 days ago sellers were getting 11•63 so the movement has been minimal.
Still at least some buyers have come out of hiding! If the scheduled court case goes ahead on the 25th and dependent on the result MB might unveil who he intends PAT to partner with.
I don't know how much longer this case is going to carry on with appeals etc..but I very much doubt a resolution on the 25th. Hoping for the
Best, fearing the worst.

US stocks started the day on the down tack the Dow slumping 500 soon after the bell mostly on Ukraine concerns. Biden saying Russia could invade in the next few days didn't help nervous investors who cont to face volatility on the mrkts.

Giant retailer Walmart reported Q4 nos that beat Walls estimates, shares up 4% to $139 as the Co boosted the dividend. Cisco also a Dow component rose c.3% on better Q earnings and issued a an upbeat F/Y guidance. Nividia slipped $20 to $245 despite earnings and revenue beats.

Elon Musk never out of the news alleges the US Securities and Exchange Commission has been unfairly targeting him with endless and unrelenting investigations, the latest being the Auto Safety Regulator. The stock was off $40 at $883. Ytd the stock has fallen 26% ($317).

US jobless claims came in at 248,000 slightly more than analysts forecasts for the wk ending Feb 12th. The National unemployment rate dipped 0•3% in Jan to 3•9% (6•5m people) from a total labour force of 164m.

Closing nos were the worst for 2 weeks, as techs and growth stocks came under the hammer. Vix the 'fear gauge' spiked 15% and the 10ytb dipped below 2%. Gold briefly crossed $1900 but is lower in Shanghai this morning. Brent is off 3% wk-t-d.

DJ -622 (34,312)
SP -95 (4380)
NS -432 (14,175)
R2 -25 (1304)
WTI $91•10
10ytb 1•985%

MSCI(W) (3054)
Gold Bugs +10 (285)

Latest:- Oil $92•41. Vix 28•10.
Gold $1892. Copper $4•536.
Palm $1520. Silver $23•800.
$1•361. €1•197. Yen 115•163.
Yuan 6•335. FF +23. DF +208.
Morning all.

Well mickey1122 let's hope it's a Golden Globe winner!!

Bassala results highly encouraging...ways to go.

US stocks turned positive after hitting a session low of 34,643 (-346) as the mrkt neared closing the afternoon crowd picked up bargains reducing the days losses to near par. The Fed minutes released yesterday provided little in the way of news to upset the mrkts other than rate hikes will be coming sooner than thought.

Earlier reports that Russia was withdrawing troops proved premature as those nearer the action said a further 10,000 troops had massed near the Ukrainian border. The situation remains critical and could drag on for many months.

On the economic front wholesale prices surged c.10% in Jan y-o-y representing a near record jump indicating the consumer is alive and well. Residential Housing construction costs are up 21% which has hit first time buyers particularly hard leaving buyer traffic 5% down.

Retail sales rose 4% m-o-m, higher than expected in Jan after December's drop as omicron restrictions eased and life returns to normality. E-commerce sales jumped over 14% continuing the trend of the last few months.

Stocks in the news saw Viacom now to be re-named Paramount Global miss Q4 nos the stock slumped 18% to $24 but Airbnb the accommodation company posted Q nos that pleased, highlighting the trend in travel recovery, the stock closed up 6% at $190. Salesforce, GS & Nike led the decliners while Disney, P&G, 3M and Boeing topped the big board. Advances outpaced decliners by 1•87:1 on 10•26bn volume.

At close.
DJ -54 (34,934)
SP +4 (4475)
NS -17 (14,603)
R2 +3 (1330)
WTI $91•52
10ytb 2•030%

MSCI(W) +43 (3054)
Gold Bugs +9 (275)

Latest:- Oil $94•02. Vix 24•29.
Gold $1876. Copper $4•501.
Palm $1490. Silver $23•520.
$1•357. €1•196. Yen 115•412.
Yuan 6•330. FF -30. DF -120. Morning all.

The Streets main indexes jumped in early dealings yesterday on news that some Russian military units were pulling out of Ukraine. While tensions eased, stocks surged across all sectors. Crude and gold were sold off, a boe falling $4 to $92 and Gold ($1845) slumped $24 to the low for the day. The USD eased as the 10yr/t-bill held firm at 2•05%.

Economic news saw Producer prices record another 1% gain in Jan as supply snafus cont to disrupt the movement of goods. This served as a reminder of persistent inflationary pressures in the system. Previously the CPI hit 7•5% which heightened calls for the Fed to raise rates faster and in 100 basis points to rein in soaring price rises. Most (60%) expect a 50 basis rise next month, if not before. Everything is laid out for mrkts to go lower, there is no good reason for the mrkt to go higher, yet up it goes. As someone once said " you can't buck the mrkts"

Later today companies reporting Q nos inc Marriott, Viacom and Airbnb. Tech prices of semiconductors advanced in a broad-based rally across the Nsdq100 which put on 225 at lunch. Intel gained 60c to $48 on agreeing to purchase Tower Semi Conductor in a $5•4bn deal the stock surged 42% to $47.

Nvidia one of the stars of 2021 (+69%) was up $17 to $260 ahead of Q4 nos expected to beat Walls forecasts and AMD rose 2% to $117 after closing its acquisition of Xilinx in a record deal for the chip maker valuing it at $50bn.

At lunch the DJI was off it's 482 high for the session trading up 348 led by yoyo stock Boeing, Nike & Amex. Just 3 stocks on the big board were in the red, Chevron, Amgen inc & 3M. With no news to move mrkts the Dow moved sideways in a narrow 100 point band during the pm session.

DJ +423 (34,989)
SP +69 (4471)
NS +352 (14,621)
R2 +30 (1326)
WTI $92•00
10ytb 2•030%

MSCI(W) +43 (3054)
Gold Bugs -4 (266)

Latest :- Oil $93•16. Vix 25•70.
Gold $1854. Copper $4•541.
Palm $1500. Silver $23•360.
$1•354. €1•193. Yen 115•652
Yuan 6•338. FF +20. DF -32.
Morning all.

Another whiplash session on the Dow saw it recover from the low point of the day (-434) to end down (171) after a late rally. Fears are mounting that the Kremlin are ready to invade Ukraine at any moment. The US Embassy in Kiev has been abandoned and all staff moved out of Kiev to Lviv a city in Western Ukraine. However there is still a window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution to try and settle Russia's concerns over Nato. Germany is sending a delegation to speak with Putin today to urge him to step back from starting a war in Europe.

This conflict has created new headwinds for global mrkts and investors need to prepare for an extended period of uncertainty even if Russia does not invade. Should Russia attack there would be an immediate jump in crude to over $100 and possibly $120 per barrel.

This would hit gas prices in the US severly crimping consumer spending a big driver of GDP at the worst possible time. Countries dependent on Russia for its natural gas supplies could be cut off as temperatures go sub zero (-3°) in Ukraine, Belarus and surrounding areas.

Russia tensions has seen both gold and the USD gain as safe haven assets. Less than a month ago gold hit $1780 ish and here we are 10 days later trading nearly $100 above that but still only up 3% ytd. Crude a necessity of economic life is up over 23% this year.

Stocks in the news saw Peloton sink $2 ($39) after the newly installed CEO said a take over for the Co was unlikely to occur. Topping the big board were Nike, Disney & Coca Cola going South were Chevron, IBM & Walgreens. Dow futures are calling for a flat open as Asian mrkts trend lower in morning dealings.

DJ -172 (34,566)
SP -17 (4402)
NS +15 (14,269)
R2 -5 (1297)
WTI $95.00
10ytb 1•977%

MSCI(W) -28 (3011)
Gold Bugs +5 (271)

Latest :- Oil $95•86. Vix 28•33.
Gold $1880. Copper $4•491. Palm $1560. Silver $23•950.
$1•354. €1•196. Yen 115•386.
Yuan 6•351. FF -1. DF +2.
Morning all.

Negative cues from Wall St on Friday saw a weak start to trading in Asia this morning. US inflation data, omicron and geo political tensions in Ukraine are impacting local sentiment. The Nikkei 225 opened 750 down as sellers dumped techs giving up the last 3 days of hard won gains. At lunch the mrkt was still deep in the red (-590) though retail and motors saw buyers.

HK ended a 2 day winning streak of c.600 opening down 420 on mainland selling and its the same story in Seoul and Taipei. Its directionless across Pacifica though Sydney in choppy trading has turned an opening fall of 36 to trade up 17 near close fuelled by demand for 'Aussie' gold stocks.

Gold was off to a great start hitting $1864 after Wells Fargo said its set to be one of the best performers this year. The Bank are 'calling' gold to hit $2100 by year end. Profit takers on the Shanghai Gold Exch and Londons OTC 'round the clock' mrkt have taken $11 off the days high. With the US gold futures mrkt these 3 Exchanges account for 90% of global trading volumes.

Latest: Oil $95•47. Vix 27•36.
Gold $1854. Copper $4•501. Palm $1435. Silver $23•630.
$1•354. €1•194. Yen 115•484.
Yuan 6•385. FF -40. DF +95.
Morning all.

Morning star786, your up early. Not sure why the delay on Bassala could be lab hold ups or awaiting Bhukia case on the 25th of this month. I'm relaxed as I'm sure MB is well aware of investor unease re the delay. We do tend to think the worst when news is overdue. Given how the sp has held up on zero buying this year I'm encouraged that when news comes it will be good.

In a way the longer the delay the better for me as I will like metals be able to leverage a few more shortly. We shall see.