Member Info for JohnLewis79

DJ +114 (34,509)

SP -5 (4505)

NS -7 (15,566)

R2 -11 (1237)

WTI $75

10ytb 3•832%

MSCI(W) -2 (3018)

Gold Bugs -2 (247)

Close:- Vix 13. Brent $80.

Gold $1955. Copper $3•924.

Palm $945. Silver $25•160.

$1•309. €1•166.

FF-26. DF-36

Yen 137. Yuan 7•14.

Morning all.

It's worth noting that with the BOE interest rate of 5% Msi income investors at c.2•78% gross are losing out and that's without calculating inflation at 8•70% eroding your earnings and bloody taxes on dividend income.

However a dividend paying 15p (2•78%) while a bonus was not a consideration for me when I invested in MSi. Capital appreciation was more important as I expected the shares to be considerably higher than current and never liked paying HMRC any div I rec'd. For sure I'd have a bigger tax bill but only if I sold.

I guess the question is what dividend rate would you find acceptable if any? As you know as the sp increases the dividend yield decreases. Tbh I'd certainly forego dividend payouts, for the company to reinvest in the business which in theory should be good for the sp.

Iis will probably not agree as they will have investors to satisfy so a 1% yield and a £10 sp might be enough to keep both parties happy.

DJ +48 (34,395)

SP +38 (4510)

NS +265 (15,572)

R2 +8 (1248)

WTI $77

10ytb 3•770%

MSCI(W) +33 (3020)

Gold Bugs +2 (248)

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $81.

Gold $1959. Copper $3•936.

Palm $955. Silver $25•070.

$1•313. €1•168. FF-16. DF-58.

Wall extended recent gains to end higher yesterday. The tech heavy NSDQ caught the eye adding 265 to 15,572 a record close (+42%) and NYFANGs also posted a closing high of 14,139.

Techs soared for the 2nd straight day on data showing the annual increase of producer price inflation was the smallest in 3 years. US chip stocks also struck new highs led by Nvidia ($464) a record. If you had bought the stock back in 1995 (0•87USD) you'd be sitting on a gain of 55,970% and no doubt long retired.

JPMC will kick off 2Q earnings season on Friday. To date the stock is up 10% this year and has outperformed having had the benefit of First Republic on its books after its brokered takeover in May. That added c.$92bn in deposits and $203bn in loans.

Morning all.

it's not all doom and gloom amongst uk defence companies receiving contracts (the ones we are told about). despite most are up against the us big boys when it comes to being awarded valuable deals down the leagues we rarely get much of a look in...or so it seems.

we (msi) have our own special niche down the tables which rarely get reported about in the pathetic national business press. when it comes to promoting our defence capabilities i've never understood why 'bigging up' your own country

doesn't get more support from the media in the first instance....well i do actually but it's a long story of backing the wrong horse, outsourcing britains wealth and fixating on tittle tattle in the gutter press.

regardless, in this vein bab**** secured a £50m contract from the govt to provide operational support and training for tanks given to ukraine. they will also kit out armoured vehicles to the military (inc challenger 2 tanks) and deal with supply chain issues.

there is scope for the deal to be extended as long as the govt agree to ramp up production. the announcement came as britain, the us and global allies met at the nato summit in lithuania where rishi sunak said nato is more confident and more united than ever in facing up to the criminal putin.

bab**** shares rose 5, cobham were unchanged at 164 and msi flat at 540 in a beaten down and unloved sector.

it's not all doom and gloom amongst uk defence receiving contracts (the ones we are told about). despite most are up against the us big boys

when it comes to being awarded valuable deals down the leagues we rarely get much of a look in...or so it seems.

companies

The breakup of the British defence group Cobham continued as its aerospace division was sold yesterday to Thales the French manufacturers in a £850m deal.

Since 2019 seven business arms of Cobham have been sold off by Advent Int a private equity giant which has raised £5•4bn since their auctioning process started. The company at one time had 10,000 employees with 1700 based in the UK but now have no manufacturing base left in the UK.

The dismantling of UK cutting edge defense companies include Inmarsat the satellite maker, aerospace company Meggitt and Ultra Electronics (submarines). With many UK companies drawing admiring glances from would be suitors this might prove a cautionary tale for the smaller UK defense firms.

No doubt stringent tests and rules were laid down by the Govt before the green light was given but one wonders who will be next?

DJ +86 (34,347)

DP +33 (4472)

NS +188 (15,307)

R2 +13 (1240)

WTI $76

10ytb 3•858%

MSCI(W) +34 (2987)

Gold Bugs +12 (247)

In the 12 months through June US CPI rose 3% the smallest y-o-y rise since 3/2021. Market bulls got the message pushing the indexes to their highest levels in over a year.

Wall St cheered the news the DJI gained 86 the 500 put on 33 and techs rose 188 with gainers outpacing decliners by 3•23:1 on the NYSE. Investors sense the Fed is getting close to that final •25% bp rise this year and price a 92% chance of this month being the last.

However "core" inflation slowed from 5•3% to 4•8% still more than double the Fed's 2% preferred target rate as each month brings higher pricing for hard pressed consumers.

Gold has been a beneficiary of the tamer inflation nos rising $53 this month and pushing towards the $2000 roundo'phobia level last seen in mid May.

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $80.

Gold $1960. Copper $3•858.

Palm $930. Silver $24•415.

$1•301. €1•167. FF +6. DF+40

Morning all.

BAE Britain's bigest defence company has won a £280m Government contract to manufacture shells for Ukraine. BAE is taking on 200 extra staff as a result of this order in order to be ready for completion by 2025.

The site is operating at full capacity 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Shares rose 8 to 910 this morning. Meanwhile back in MSiland....zilch!

A better MSi day yesterday where investors had their buying boots on and just 6240 shares were sold (3 trades) which inc a late trade of 5000 held over from last Friday. Doncha just luv these late trades!

There seems no rhyme or reason to predict the ebb and flows of MSi which usually wrong'foot investors. Friday saw only 201 buys, yesterday 16,200.

Be interesting to see if there was any substance behind yesterday's increased vols and trades as the out-of-the-blue volumes were wholly unrepresentative. Given our place in the universe of the LSE don't bet on the status quo continuing in an upward direction.

A bounce on the Dow pushed stocks up 210 on the session as the 500 fell into the red around noon before recovering to move higher. All

eyes were riveted on the tech sector where substantial changes to the index are about to take place.

Shares of Apple, Msoft and other tech heavyweights dipped yesterday after NSDQ Inc said it would rebalance the index to address the "over- concentration" on benchmark tech index stocks by redistributing the weights where mrkt cap is the dominant factor but not the only one.

Currently the "Amazing" 7 account for 55% of the 100 component index. Based on current methodology the combined weight of the 5 largest companies by mrkt cap (47%) will be set at 38•5% which suggests some notable weighting shifts within the "7" giants. At the moment Msoft has the largest weighting at (13%) and Google the lowest (4%).

This will force investment funds that track it to adjust their portfolios by selling shares of the companies that have their weights in the index reduced. For instance while the S&P has gained 15% this year, Nvidia has surged nea 200%, Tesla more than doubled while Msoft, Amazon & Apple have climbed between 38% & 51%.

Changes to the 100 index will take place on July 24 and no additions or delistings will take place.

DJ +210 (33,944)

SP +11 (4410)

NS +9 (15,046)

R2 +16 (1215)

WTI$73

10ytb 3•989%

MSCI(W) +7 (2931)

Gold Bugs +4 (233)

Latest:- Vix 15. Brent $78.

Gold $1929. Copper $3•816.

Palm $970. Silver $23•425.

$1•288. €1•268. FF +5. DF+5.

Morning all.

Looks very much a hold for better days which may be sometime coming. No doubt there are opportunities for Totally in these times of NHS crisis but i dont have an irresistible urge to buy atm.

Wendy Lawrence has her foot on the acceleration pedal so I'm holding awaiting the mrkts verdict on these results which should please due to c.£12m in new won contracts for starters.

If you like the sector and Totally's offerings stick with them for next year the outlook could be much better all round unless people stop getting sick or needing operations.

Asia got the new week off to a mixed start but Pan Pacificas showed strength with gains in Jakarta, KL & Singapore. Tokyo rose on back of strong energy and materials sectors but we're down 388 at mid session as motors and big tech suffered profit taking. A late bout of bottom fishing saw the 225 cut losses to 36 points.

Bullion prices were flat ($1924) awaiting the latest inflation report ahead of July Fed rate decision widely expected to be raised 25 basis points. In a recent Gold survey 19 analysts were polled, 53% we're bullish on Gold in the near term, 26% bearish and 21% undecided to sideways.

Crude is seeing strong demand from China as global Air travel is rebounding strongly. IATA reported a 130% increase in passenger kilometers across Asia Pacifica in May by far the bigest increase in air travel in the world.

China traffic shot up 157% in part due countries entering their summer period which usually leads to higher crude prices as demand and consumption increase. Recent crude inventory calcs report the world has just 22 days of oil demand covered with oil in storage.

Latest:- Vix 15. Brent $78.

Gold $1922. Copper $3•763.

Palm $960. Silver $23•235.

$1•281. €1•169. 10ytb 4•079%

FF -5. DF -50.

Morning all.

You may not have seen the Daily Mail article of Sat July 8 headlined "Flying the Flag" for defence stocks. The launch of a Future Defence Fund will put money into the cybersecurity industries once regarded by many as anathema is now increasingly seen as providing support to democracy.

After a longish era of decline expenditure reached £1•74bn last year with the likes of Chemring reporting a surge in orders. Despite a rush to re-equip and form partnerships shares fell after last month's failed insurrection led by the founder of Wagener mercenary group. Some investors will continue to shun BAE, Quinetic and others in the EQM Future of Defence index which also inc Northrop, Cisco and Raytheon. However an new Defence fund the VanEck was launched in April to provide diversification for countries to invest for afterall its their prime responsibility to safeguard its citizens.

Unfortunately Despite the mood music around Defence few funds have big stakes because of the moral complexities and the requirement to comply with ESG criteria. The consensus of analysts rate RR & BAE as best buys along with Palantir, Paloalto and Cisco all of whose share prices have risen this year. Those heading down are Rayethon, Chemring Lockheed and Quinetic.

MSi (no mention in the 10 company article) falls between the pure Defence stocks and the cybertype which are seen as more a testing ground for technologies where innovation is needed.

MSi may provide the grunt but need to decide to focus on their core strategies such as are we a petrol station stock with a half-hearted defence arm, or a petrol station stock with a booming business? No doubt our defense business is highly regarded and attracting comment from interested US companies. And let's face it that's where the money and investors reside.

Falling between stools is a killer in these mrkts for shareholder value as we well know. I doubt holders would be supportive of an equity raise given the solution is staring them in the face.

Morning all.

I think the drop came late but decent of them to let us know! Won't be long before no trades will be reported investors will have to guess or take a punt on "dark" web prices. Should be fun.....afterall WB said he'd be quite happy to see the stock market closed for 5 years.

Allright for you me old mucker but most of us ain't billionaires!

Just when you thought MSi was gaining some momentum a 290,000 sell @ 572•5 took 25 off the sp to close the week at 540 some 19% down ytd.

Excluding that trade, vols and trades were well below previous deals as the summer blues impact investor attention. Nos below inc the large 290,000 sell.

T/vol 317,000

Buys 11,000

Sells 306,000

T/trds 33

Buys 17

Sells 16

Sell% 96

Av trd 9600

Av ££ 3040

Msi ytd -19%

Msi 52 +81%

Aim -11%

Ftse -3%

All -3%

DJ +2%

SP +15%

NS +37%

R2 +4%

Brent $ -9%

Gold $ +5%

Palm $ -7%

Wall's main indexes fell overnight on fears of more rate hikes to reduce inflation and dampen a strong jobs market. The US added 240,000 jobs in June the fewest nos of jobs in 2•5 years. Non farm payrolls came in at 209,000 last month and a surge in private payrolls expanded to (c.497,000) in June.

Investors are becoming very cautious going into the 2Q earnings season starting next week with the big banks. The 500 has gained c.15% ytd thanks to a few mega caps flattering the nos.

While healthcare off 5%, financials 2% and energy 9% have been targeted as popular recession plays into H2 overall the 500 is expected to fall c.6% in Q2.

This stoked fears the Fed will move aggressively to hike rates consistent with what they want to see (2-3% infl). Dealers price in a 92% chance of a •25% basis hike in July and one more in Dec.

The DJI fell 486 points & the 3rd straight day of declines on a shortened week as stocks tumbled nearly 200 in a late sell off on Friday. Surprisingly the R2 ended up up on the day and only 16 down over the week. Defense groups and consumer staples led the fallers as investors headed home in a downbeat mood.

Despite the gloomy end to the week advances out paced decliners on the NYSE by a 2•5:1 ratio on 10•3bn changing hands.

Wk27

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DJ -187 (33,735)

SP -13 (4399)

NS -53 (15037)

R2 +12 (1200)

WTI $74

10ytb 4•068%

MSCI(W) (2924)

Gold Bugs +3 (228)

Close:- Vix 15. Brent $78.

Gold $1925. Copper $3•78.

Palm $960. Silver $23•285.

FF +16. DF +20. $1•284. €1•170. Yen 142. Yuan 7•22.

Morning all.

Wall St tumbled yesterday pressured by a jump in T/Bill yields after data signalled a strong Labour mrkt as private payrolls increased in June.

Investors now price in a near 50% chance the Fed will bump rates another 25 basis points in November.

Wall took fright falling over 460 at mid'day dragged down by Banks, oils and airlines. Jet Blue ($9) a 2nd tier air operator fell 7% after ending its partnership with American to focus on buying Spirit Airways in an all cash $33 deal. However the Justice Dept is planning on blocking the deal.

Pfizer a leading drugs company during the global "pandemic" has travelled south eversince hitting a 52wk high of $51 back in early January. Having just bght 4•6m shares in Caribou a cell therapy specialist company the stock ended off 1$ at $36 a ytd low.

On the NYSE all 11 S&P sectors fell on the day. Losers outnumbered risers by a ratio of c.10:1 and 5:1 on the NSDQ. An average 11bn shares were traded on the session.

DJ -366 (33,922)

SP -35 (4412)

NS -114 (15089)

R2 -18 (1188)

WTI $71

10Ytb $4•042

MSCI -36 (2925)

Gold Bugs -5 (225)

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $77.

Gold $1914. Copper $3•742.

Palm $925. Silver $22•865.

$1•260. €1•165.

FF +12. DF+11.

Morning all.

DJ -130 (34,289)

SP -9 (4447)

NS -5 (15,204)

R2 -18 (1205)

WTI $72

10ytb 3•956%

MSCI(W) -10 (2961)

Gold Bugs -7 (251)

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $76.

Gold $1921. Copper $3•742.

Palm $970. Silver $23•320.

$1•269. €1•172.

FF-28. DF-107.

Morning all.

Indeed it did monet2. Don't like to see insiders selling stock but heh it's part and parcel of owning part of your company. The 2 Director sales represented c.3% of the outstanding.

Foregoing a dividend of 3•75p on 2•068m shares must have hurt! Nice to be in a position to do so I guess!

With no lead from Wall St Asia trades mostly lower. The release of the Fed's meeting minutes and the monthly jobs data will be the focus later this week for investors as to pointers on interest decisions.

Japan opened lower the 225 off 380 points at 33,300 at lunch. Most other Eastern Exchanges follow Nikkei's lead. Mrkt heavyweight Softbank (not a bank) and Uniglo operator Fast Retailing are down 2% with autos Honda and Toyota flat. Banks and exporters trade better and among the bigest gainers are Kawasaki, Sanyo, Dai-ichi and Renesas Electronics all over 4%.

In economic news the services sector continues to expand (54) in June above the boom/bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. USD is trading in the higher 144 yen- range.

Gold has struggled for direction in the face of a resilient US economy, climbing Treasury yields and USD strength. Some analysts think Gold has run into resistance at c.$1930-50 which will be the high'point this year.

Latest:- Vix 14. Brent $76.

Gold $1926. Copper $3•768.

Palm $960. Silver $23•130.

$1•271. €1•268.

FF -5. DF +6.

Morning all.

A terrific set of H/Y nos where revenues, profits and margins were all ahead of my expectations. The outlook for the rest of the year looks even better still.... with a nice divvy for income seekers.

I have traded the stock on a few occasions (something I rarely do) and only recently have taken a 'hold' position having built up a few attractively priced shares for the longer term.