Member Info for John2727

G, I think you’re conflating three different things, which is exactly why these threads go in circles.

Operating cash vs free cash flow

You’re absolutely right that TXP has been FCF-negative during a heavy capex phase. That’s not controversial, and it’s been openly stated by management.

But that’s a capital allocation choice, not a sign the underlying business can’t generate cash.

TXP can cover debt service and opex from operations, and still be FCF-negative if it chooses to reinvest heavily. Those are not mutually exclusive.

Debt service vs balance sheet optics. The point I made (and keep making) is narrower than the argument you’re rebutting. I’m not saying TXP is “financially strong” in a balance-sheet sense today. I am saying existing production covers debt servicing and running costs.

That matters, because it means CR-3 is about upside and inflection, not insolvency. A poor CR-3 outcome does not automatically create a “zombie company” That distinction gets lost when everything is framed as binary success/failure.

The share price doesn’t reflect “can the company pay its bills” It reflects, dilution risk, execution fatigue, credibility scars from past guidance and capital intensity vs timing.

All fair points but they’re market psychology, not proof the operating base is broken.

As for covenant waivers again, not unusual in a scale-up phase following a major acquisition. They’re uncomfortable, but not the same as being unable to service debt.

But we’re not cash-dead, and CR-3 does not determine whether the lights stay on.

CR-3 determines pricing uplift, speed of deleveraging and whether growth is self-funded or diluted. That’s the distinction I was making and not claiming everything is rosy.

Happy to debate numbers, but it helps if we’re debating the same question.

I wasn’t replying to (or targeting) any one individual post. I’ve been reading the board over the last few days and there’s been a growing general narrative that a poor CR-3 outcome somehow equals TXP becoming a “zombie company”.

My post was simply to separate operational upside from financial reality. Whether CR-3 is strong, average or disappointing, the current producing base already covers debt and opex and that’s a factual point, not an opinion about CR-3.

a few people still seem confused about cash flow and debt, so here it is in simple, real-world terms.

we’re already covering debt comfortably today, before cr-3 pricing uplift.

current position

central block gas:

18–19 mmscf/d gross

13–14 mmscf/d net

us$14–15m p.a. gas revenue

this alone covers annual debt payments (us$5–6m)

add cas-1 & cas-2 gas

6–7 mmscf/d gross

4.5–5 mmscf/d net

us$5m p.a. additional gas revenue

add cas-5 oil (small but real):

modest volumes, but still ≈ us$3–4m p.a. net cash

so before cr-3 pricing uplift, group operating cash is roughly:

us$22–24m per year

so…….

debt is covered

opex is covered

txp is already cash-generative

cr-3 is not about survival like some are suggesting.

what changes once central block moves above 22 mmscf/d? meaning cr3 only needs to settle at 4 mmscf/d

gas pricing steps up from us$3.0/mcf to us$3.6/mcf (after all costs)

at 24 mmscf/d cb, that pricing uplift alone adds roughly us$3.7m per year and drops straight to cash

debt is already covered today with cas production alone and cas-1, cas-2 and cas-5 mean txp is already running a surplus

cr-3 + higher pricing turns that surplus into meaningful free cash flow.

equity raises are **** and could have been done better but are about speed and scale, not keeping the lights on. that’s the bit that often gets missed.

happy to be corrected but even with a +- 10% we’re looking in good shape to get straight into cr4 once cr3 is hooked up.

(based on last financial statement)

PB follow-up update (key facts):

CR-3 tie-in is underway: pipe is being laid now, with welding scheduled for next week.

Works are running in parallel, not sequential.

Rig-less completion of CR-3 is planned over the next couple of weeks, followed by testing directly into the line.

Flow rates will only be known at first production (no advance test rates).

• Cas-5 is on production and stable.

• Cas-4: evaluating costs and completion design.

• Cas-3: Schlumberger has taken full responsibility for the failed pump and is preparing a remediation plan.

Priority order remains: Central Block Cas compressor (tested and in T&T in Feb) and balance sheet.

GGG, that’s not what’s been said.

PB confirmed that a dedicated Karamat well is planned and approved, but it is gated by capital allocation. There has been no suggestion that Karamat impacts CR-3 timing or execution.

CR-3 is already drilled and moving through completion / tie-in. Karamat was referenced only in the context of learnings (it was the wildcard on CR-3 and will be engineered out on future wells), not as something that interferes with CR-3 delivery.

It’s going to be interesting to see how Canada reacts at the open, especially now that tax-loss selling ended on 31/12 and London has already done a lot of the heavy lifting this morning. Wouldn’t be a surprise to see Canadian demand provide support rather than pressure.

Also worth noting that with the news now public, director buying is back on the table - whether PB or others choose to act is unknown, but historically that’s often when interest re-emerges.

Either way, TSX open should add liquidity and clarity to today’s move.

Let’s see what uplift the opening brings

HNY 🥰

G, your post is exactly why I won’t be sharing today’s update or anything else on here.

There’s no point engaging, so I’ll be keeping any further commentary to Discord only going forward.

Good luck.

I’m aligned with you on this, Stas. Recent exchanges with PB have been positive in tone, and continued guidance around additional gas in February suggests CR-3 remains on track.

That said, until the data is in, it’s still a waiting game, and Cas-5 showed us why patience matters. Hopefully CR-3, along with the other CB wells planned for 2026, deliver in line with guidance.

Have a great Christmas all.

Stas, TD and final casing aren’t the same milestone. I read it as it will come once the final casing string is run.

Silence doesn’t imply delay, and while TD feels overdue, casing and mud/cement curing take time. Best not to drop your load and pull out too soon. 😉

The plan is to log the well and case to TD around 7800-8000 ft. Then the rig will complete the well and walk about 60 feet away from the well head. We will then tie the well into the plant using equipment that is onsite. No change with first gas anticipated in February. We will press release when we have the final string of casing in place.

While the tie in is happening, we will build the location at Baraka and move the rig in February for spud in late Feb early March. Possibly two wells off that pad then back to CR-4 in q3-4.

Plan is to have all four Central block wells on by year end.

At Cas the only project is the Compressor which is still on target for an in-service date of Q2.

Hope that helps

Have a great Christmas.

CB drill-watch

• Spud: 23 Nov

• Cas-5 pace ≈ 320 ft/day

That puts the CB well today at roughly ~7,300 ft (real-world ~6,600–7,400 ft).

Top of Herrera (pay zone) is around ~6,500 ft, so on the maths the bit should hopefully be entering or going through the pay zone

If depth-wise lines up, hopefully Santa will deliver a TD present by the 22/12

Quick bit of drill-watching for anyone chewing their nails…

Based on PB’s “27 days to TD” guide and if the drill crew haven’t hit a gold seam then we’re hopefully around 50–60% downhole by now, we’re now roughly day 18 of of those 27 days

Which means the bit should be cutting into the main pay zone around 16–19 December.

I had a brief reply back this afternoon.

CR-3 is drilling ahead and they’ll update the market once they hit TD.

Director buying is ongoing but being staggered & some of the board have already been picking up shares over the last week or so and PB is planning to buy once the others have filled their lots.

DH he deleted a channel named after you, but as I understand it you’re still free to post away on any of the other threads.

Tradeemup, for what it’s worth I literally said yesterday that Brian’s wording wasn’t the strongest. No one is pretending the “not super exciting” line was perfect but the project itself is exactly what the slides and RNS have shown for months. That was my only point.

On the EGM side, just to be clear, this isn’t some last-minute conversion.

Last week in Discord I ran a poll:

“Do we start the process of exploring an EGM or give PB 8 more weeks?”

60% voted to explore the EGM route.

40% voted to give him 8 weeks.

So the door was already open. The irony is that G could have made his strongest case at that exact moment, calmly, factually, and without the spiralling and he’d have had the full room’s attention. But he didn’t. Not one constructive point about an EGM from him during the actual window where it mattered.

I’m not defending management for the sake of it. I’m just keeping the discussion on facts. We all want the same thing: a repaired share price and a properly run company. But how we argue the case matters if we actually want to pull shareholders together.

And as for the idea that Discord is “over-policed” come on. If anyone actually read the threads, they’d see maybe 0.5% of posts get removed, and only when they’re abusive or outright false. There’s a lot of good investors in there putting in real research, and the Wiki channels Monkey has built over the years are invaluable. Even this morning’s long technical debate on Cas-2/Cas-5 tie-ins, with graphs from both sides, was an education in itself.

You’ve completely misunderstood the compressor point.

Paul literally held up a full graph yesterday showing What the compressors did for Central Block

Before: flows swinging all over the place

After: flat, stable, maxed-out delivery

Result: Central Block has delivered 4.6 bcf since acquisition and is now running consistently around 22 MMcf/d

This is exactly why Central is now reliable, bankable and producing steady cashflow.

Why Cassandra needs the same thing. The Cas wells aren’t in decline as they were and are steady but they’re cycling:

High flow = backpressure = dip = pressure equalises = higher (steady) flow again.

A compressor flattens that out so Cas can deliver stable 20-year flow, just like Central.

The “not super exciting” comment

That wasn’t saying the project isn’t important.

It means it’s not a risky drilling project it’s a mechanical upgrade with predictable, long-term returns.

The market actually likes low-risk, high-return infrastructure because it improves cashflow stability.

Supersport, relax mate and take a chill pill! there’s no drama needed.

I didn’t say the last couple of years have been smooth. They clearly haven’t.

I simply agreed with Stas’ post because it separated legitimate frustration from the constant repetition of the same negativity that drives sentiment even lower.

And on averages of course everyone’s entry price matters. I’ve been open about my own losses many times. But regardless of whether someone is in at 6p or 60p, recovery still requires confidence returning, not endless doom posts.

Nobody is asking anyone to defend PB.

Holding him accountable is perfectly valid but doing it in a way that doesn’t hammer the share price further is common sense for all holders.

We’re all in the same boat here, whether we like the current captain or not.

That’s all I was saying.

First time in a while I’ve scanned LSE and the post by Stas is one of the best bits of clarity I’ve seen on here for a while.

It sums up exactly what many of us have been thinking but haven’t bothered saying because the board has been drowned out by repetition and worst-case scenarios.

Nobody here is pretending the last 18 months have been smooth.

Nobody is denying the frustration or the losses.

But there’s a difference between accountability and a daily cycle of doom that actually hurts the very people it claims to protect.

As Stas said, a rising tide lifts all boats.

Whether someone bought at 6p or 60p, stability and recovery benefit everyone.

Hammering sentiment into the ground does the opposite.

If someone genuinely wants change there are proper routes:

Endless negativity on here isn’t pressure; it’s just noise that drags sentiment and confidence down.

For the first time in a long time, the company seems to be communicating better, production is stabilising, and we’ve got actual catalysts in front of us.

We need momentum, not another rinse-and-repeat of the same narrative.

So yes credit where it’s due.

Superb post from Stas.

Balanced, fair, and exactly what this board needed today.

G, I don’t need to “align” with you or have my words ghost-written by you, I’ve been consistent for months.

The line’s already drawn:

Cas-5 must prove commercial, CB must spud and reach TD for the ~$3m stated (60/40), and if it’s commercial, that takes us straight into the next three CB wells. PB’s got 8–12 weeks to show he can deliver. That’s on record, it doesn’t need your signature underneath it.

Do you really think JJR didn’t do their own DD? Or that the other placement funders would just stand back if any of the above fails? Of course not. Would JJR buy another 1.6m shares in recent weeks if they thought it would all go tits up? Would Purebond chuck in $6.3m without due diligence? Come on.

Yes, they’re buying at the bottom, and good luck to them. But there comes a time to stop re-litigating every mistake and let TXP do their job. If they fail, there’ll be fireworks from all sides. The pressure is on PB now and like I said, it’s his last get-out-of-jail card.

And just to clear up your latest conspiracy theory: the Q&A with PB isn’t my personal hotline. 90% of the questions come from the Discord group, voted on by investors. I simply share his replies. So maybe skip the hero/villain narrative, it’s getting tired.

I’m going to log off until Cas 5 and Q3 are out as there is no gain in discussing further until then.

GLA

If you want to draft messages, knock yourself out. Just don’t try to co-opt mine.

I don’t do echo chambers, and I don’t need to shout 5,000 times to make a point.

Everyone here’s an adult investor — they can decide what failure looks like without me, or you, playing referee