Member Info for John2727

Acreage & Scale

TXP now controls around 145,000 net acres across Trinidad — Ortoire, Cipero, Charuma, Rio Claro and the older oil blocks (WD-4/8, CO-1, Balata East).

In May 2025, they closed the Central Block acquisition from Shell adding 6,699 gross (4,354 net) acres, four producing gas wells, and the Evergreen gas facility (~80 MMcf/d).

Central Block currently produces about 17–18 MMcf/d gas plus ~200 bbl/d NGLs, providing a solid cash-flow base.

Facilities

TXP now operates three gas-processing plants:

Cascadura A - commissioned Sept 2023, expanded Nov 2024 to roughly 140 MMcf/d with 4,000 bbls NGL and 800 bbls water storage.

Coho - commissioned Oct 2022, compact 24 MMcf/d satellite plant handling Ortoire gas.

Central Block (Evergreen) - acquired May 2025, rated around 80 MMcf/d.

That’s about 240 MMcf/d of processing capacity already built, owned and operating — infrastructure that would cost hundreds of millions of dollars to replicate today.

The Cascadura compression upgrade (3,750 hp) is ordered and scheduled for Q2 2026, which should significantly boost flow once the line-pressure issue is resolved.

A bit of perspective from seeing it myself

I actually spent eight hours driving around the sites earlier this year, and it really hit home just how much has been achieved by such a small O&G outfit.

It’s not just the acreage, it’s the forestry clearance, bridges, and sheer logistics of it all. When you actually drive through the townships and see the scale of moving heavy kit from Point Lisas to the pads, you realise the challenge they faced.

They literally had to remove power lines, rebuild sections of road, and widen access routes just to get the larger equipment on site. All of that was part of the learning curve, and seeing it first-hand gave me a whole new level of respect for what’s been pulled off on the ground.

Where Things Stand

Five producing wells currently feeding TXP’s network: Coho-1, Cas-1ST1, Deep-1, Cas-2ST1 and Cas-3ST1.

Two more (Cas-5 and Cas-4ST2X) being completed and tied in over the coming weeks.

Four additional wells planned for Central Block between Nov 2025 and Apr 2026, starting with Carapal Ridge-3 (drill-ready).

By early 2026, TXP should have seven producers feeding two major gas hubs (Cascadura and Central), with Coho continuing as the smaller satellite.

Why the Share Price Is 11p

It isn’t the assets they’re proven. It’s perception and timing:

Debt sits around US $64 m after the Central Block deal and August placing.

Guidance trimmed mid-2025 to 5,300–5,900 boe/d, which spooked traders.

Cas-3 oil output softened and Cas-4 needed re-entry.

Compressor fix not landing until 2026.

Plus the usual AIM thin-liquidity drag and short-term noise.

But look past that and focus on the facts: TXP owns the plants, the pads, the acreage, and the production base.

They’ve moved from promise to delivery - now it’s about filling the infrastructure they’ve already built.

If you strip out the emotion and just look at what’s in the ground and what’s been built above it - three gas plants, 145 k acres, five wells online, two more coming - it’s clear this company has already turned the corner.

The market just hasn’t caught up yet.

Facts over fear. Always.

(Not advice — just one holder’s view after five long years following this story, and one long day driving the sites to see it for myself.)

Correction *Cas 4 & * Four wells on CB

I received a reply from PB over the weekend on 10 questions I put forward, which I uploaded to the management answers on discord. The main points covered were that C5 will be hooked up this month and will be generating cash flow immediately and cash for will follow in November. Then plan to drill four wheels on central block

The full Q&A can be read on discord.

GGG, I totally hear you for a long time and no argument PB has dropped the ball on comms in the past and the raise handling was poor. But if Casc-4 was a disaster, they’d have had no choice but to RNS it immediately. Silence, to me, looks more like they’re trying to tie funding + ops into one release. Doesn’t excuse the poor communication, but it explains why nothing has been said for the past week. I agree SH deserve far better than “sit tight” lines, but I’d rather judge on the ops/funding package when it lands than assume worst-case by default.

We’re now heading into the third weekend since PB told me to “sit tight over the weekend” (12/9), and the only reply since was PB confirming that gas is still on for October, the rig is moving to Central Block in October, and the pad was already 60% complete at that time.

Since then, silence. IMO the reason is simple and they’re trying to tie everything together. The Republic Bank covenant originally required TXP to raise at least $7.3m equity before year-end. PB has said they’re working with the bank to move or soften that covenant, which would take some pressure off, but any new backers will still want hard proof on Cas-4/5.

I believe the team have been flat out trying to hook both 4/5 up and prove the flow rates. Once that’s done, they can secure funding (whether via equity or amended terms) and bundle it with CB rig news in one RNS.

That’s why I don’t think the silence means “bad news” if it was, they’d have had to RNS it immediately. It’s more about paperwork, financing, and making sure the raise/terms aren’t set at rock bottom without the ops results to back it up.

Long-term PIs have carried this company for years and the lack of comms doesn’t help. But since Cas-4 drilling recommenced on 20/9 with a 17-day timeline (pointing to 7/10 my belief is they’re going straight to hook-up to prove numbers. The goal is to support funding and hopefully re-rate the share price closer to the last placement level (20.5p).

All speculation until company news but it’s hard to see why nothing has been released two weeks after the anticipated TD date.

GLA and have a good weekend

Will this be the week TXP turn themselves around?

Cas-4 and Cas-5 remain on track to deliver gas in October, and the rig is now being mobilised for the short move across to Central Block.

While at CB it was also encouraging to see that the existing hook-in pipes run only ~400m from the new pad site, which should make future tie-in relatively straightforward once drilling is complete.

Plenty for investors to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.

Some good points made. But just to clarify – everything Paul shared with me was already in the public domain from the last presentation. He simply confirmed that things remain on track: Cas-4 and Cas-5 are still expected to be producing by October (no guidance on volumes), and the rig is scheduled to be at Central Block in October, with the pad around 60% complete.

So it wasn’t new, price-sensitive information – just a reconfirmation of what’s already been said. I’d expect an RNS in the next few days, but for me it’s positive that TXP are engaging with the PI base.

Https://www.instagram.com/p/DOzSxeBjMGF/?igsh=MTdzNmY4OXpneXhzdA==

I’ve mentioned on Discord over the past week that I had contact with PB last Friday and with IR yesterday. Most of the team were in T&T until last weekend, and the 3-hour meeting with the Energy Minister out at Cas was described as extremely successful.

PB also said the team would be back together in Calgary this week to start working on the news flow. Take that as you will, but I don’t think the Minister and his team would spend three hours in the field if there were problems.

Personally, I’m expecting an update either tomorrow or early next week and in my opinion, it will be positive.

GGG-fair points. The dilution at 16p/20.5p hurt for sure and management haven’t helped themselves on comms. That damage is already baked into today’s 15p price.

On production vs pricing - they’re linked. Without Cas-4/5 and CB volumes we don’t even touch the higher pricing tiers. Production is what unlocks the leverage on contracts, and these wells achieve that goal.

Q4 should finally flip the switch: Cas-4/5 online, hopefully with strong flush, and the rig heading into CB. By January we’ve got a new CB well down.

Pair that with higher pricing triggers and the 2026 renegotiation window, and suddenly TXP has scale, cashflow and acreage.

Yes, PB and co have been frustrating. But at 15p the downside is priced in - the upside is what happens when the wells and pricing kick. That’s why I’m holding, averaging, and giving it 12 months.

Navigator - here’s why I’m still invested (and averaging down):

Progress

Cas-5 drilled smoothly, with tests confirming positive flows.

Cas-4 is only days away from TD. Both are due to be hooked up in October, with flush production expected mid-month.

Central Block

Rig moves across in October, with a CB well due to TD by January 2026.

CB has multiple stacked targets, and success there would likely justify Cas-6 and additional CB wells.

Production & Pricing Upside

Current CB inflows are ~17.6 MMcf/d; once production pushes past 22 MMcf/d, higher tier gas pricing kicks in.

Gas contracts are due for renegotiation in 2026 (possibly sooner per last presentation), which should materially improve realised prices.

Acreage & Assets

Ortoire Block: 183,000 gross acres (80% WI).

Central Block: 167,000 gross acres in May (65% WI).

Combined ~350,000 acres with multiple proven and prospective targets.

Hard assets already in place:

Cas A Plant – 90 MMcf/d capacity, expandable.

CB Plant – scalable with production.

These plants, plus acreage position, carry significant replacement value not reflected in the market cap.

Forward Program

If Cas-4/5 and CB deliver, Q4 revenues/cashflow jump sharply.

That sets up a Q1 2026 multi-well program likely funded from operations instead of equity dilution.

Bigger Picture

Management has been frustrating, no doubt, but the asset base is top-class.

With multiple wells, new block exposure, and pricing leverage, Q4/Q1 could finally allow the market to take the boot off our throats.

In short: The market is pricing TXP like nothing works. But within weeks we’ll have new Cas volumes online (hopefully with high flush rates), and within months the first CB well. Add in ~350k acres, two plants, higher pricing triggers, and the risk/reward remains firmly on the upside.

Plus a new compressor in mid 26 to balance the pressures .

Like most here, my average was high, but I’m now getting close to 30p and aiming to reduce that to ~25p over the next week. I spent 12 hours touring the plants and Cas-5 rig — walked from Cas-3, stood on the Cas-5 rig, and through Cas-A and saw firsthand the civil works and infrastructure being put in place. That’s why I’m committed for at least the next 12 months, and why I’m still adding.

GLA

Https://www.instagram.com/p/DNyJRUA2I10/?igsh=MXVmdnl4OXN4cXRrNw==

That’s what Chat reckons anyway. Let’s see what comes in over the next 6-8 weeks

I get what you’re saying about recurring vs one-off cash flow, but multiplying £4m by 20 quarters isn’t really how these things are valued.

Q1 cash flow was about £4m, so annualised that’s £16m. With a market cap of only £39m (C$66.6m), TXP is trading at 2.5x cash flow. Small-cap E&Ps usually trade closer to 5–7x, so even without growth you could argue fair value should be nearer £100m.

And that’s before factoring in Cas-4/5 (620ft of Herrera pay), Cascadura optimisation, and the Central Block deal plus the planned CB well they’ve said they’re hoping to spud in Oct ’25 and hook up in Jan. CB alone added producing wells and a gas plant. Together these should lift annual cash flow into the £20–25m range, which on normal multiples gets you £120–150m.

So yes, cash flow matters - but the proper way to look at it shows TXP is still undervalued by 2–3x on today’s numbers. Once we see a full quarter from CB and results from Cas-4/5, that’s when we’ll get a true valuation picture.

⸻

Would you like me to also craft a short “mic drop” reply version (2–3 sentences) you can use when you don’t want to write a full post but still want to correct the narrative?

A lot of chat on why the compressor is only coming now. Reality is, TXP underestimated (we all did) how vicious the decline rates would look under high line pressure. The plant works, but the main transmission line is choking well output. The compressor re-aligns pressure and stabilises flow - effectively unlocking volumes that are already in the ground.

The new compressor was talked about and designs being put together when we were on pad A back in early June and especially when they got eyes on CB and what the compressors are doing to those four wells

Morning all – quick take ahead of the open.

Yesterday’s 45-min presentation from PB covered a lot, but the big investor takeaway for me is this:

Compressor at Cascadura = absolute game changer. It adds ~5 mmcf/d uplift and locks in a steady base capacity at 300 psi. The key isn’t just the extra volume – it’s the stability. Predictable flows for possibly the next 15 years transform TXP from volatile to dependable.

Proof already seen: when one LNG train went offline recently, line pressure dropped and TXP’s output immediately jumped. The gas is there – it’s just been choked by pipeline pressure. The compressor fixes that.

CAS-4 is on the clock. Drilling estimated at ~17 days to TD, so first week of September if all goes smoothly. Hook-up should be quick: downtime was used to prep logistics and all kit is on site. Wireline testing, at C4, will be the big milestone at TD. End-September first gas looks solid.

CAS-5 already drilled and waiting. With both online by October, Central Block spudding before year end, and debt pay-down now a core focus, the next 6–12 months are fully mapped.

Medium term: 2026 becomes bankable. Institutions and lenders want stability — this plan delivers it.

Yes, Q2 was messy - PB admitted that. But the path ahead is clear: drill - grow - pay down debt - stabilise.

Sometimes boring is exactly what re-rates a stock.

Just finished going through Paul’s 45-minute presentation + Q&A. Here’s what really matters for us holders:

I have uploaded the full transcript in MA as well

Production

CAS-5 drilled/cased; CAS-4 drilling now (TD ~17 days). Both due online October.

Central Block well spud this year, expected online January 2026.

Stable base of ~5,300–5,400 boe/d already producing.

Compression = Game Changer

Houston unit secured, install Q2 2026.

Adds equivalent of another well (~+5 mmcf/d uplift) but with 15-year low-risk life.

Stabilises flows at 300 psi → smooth, predictable revenue curve.

Funding & Equity

Bank covenant requires up to $7.2m equity by YE, but Paul clear this is negotiable (waivers, higher prod, etc.).

Recent $12.5m raise filled default gap; future dilution depends on performance.

Expect clarity with Q3 results (mid-Nov).

Pricing & LNG

Central Block gas currently nets ~$3–4/Mcf.

Step-change in May 2027 → full LNG exposure, $8–10/MMBtu minus costs.

Above 22 mmcf/d, extra volumes already qualify for LNG pricing (next CB well could unlock this).

Exploration & Growth

Sapparo, Cherumo, Rio Claro next in queue (Herrera + oil plays).

10+ Cascadura wells planned over next 3 years.

Exxon now active in Trinidad’s Cretaceous fairway → validates TXP acreage. Farm-out option possible.

Other Key Points

VAT refunds: TXP owed $7–8m, gov’t reviewing fixes (offset against PPT/SPT or zero VAT).

Decommissioning levy ($0.25/bbl) already being built into accounts – liability fully covered.

Governance: Trinidad gov’t supportive, budget due Oct may include energy reforms.

Bottom line:

CAS-4/5 online October = immediate uplift.

Central Block well Jan = first step to LNG volumes.

Compressor Q2 2026 = stability + uplift.

May 2027 = full LNG kicker.

It’s a stacked pipeline: near-term production gains, mid-term stability, long-term LNG upside.

GGG – as I said, personally I respect most of your posts. You make solid points and back them up with detail, but I honestly think you’d get a lot more engagement if you cut out the slurs.

Instead of “Lyin’ Paul” or “Calamity Baay,” you could use things like:

“PB has been inconsistent” / “poor messaging from PB”

“missteps under PB’s leadership” / “execution risks”

And “optimistic holders” instead of “fanboys”

It still gets your criticism across but without giving people a reason to dismiss you as ranting. Just a thought, because the substance of what you write deserves to be read and debated.

the thing about someone with “destructive narcissism” is they can’t help themselves. they scroll the boards day and night, pushing their scrabbled and desperate narrative. when their short position starts to wobble, they lay bait - hoping to drag anyone posting facts or positive content down into their unbalanced ideology.

it’s completely obvious to me that ross has been working his destructive narcissistic behaviour into this board for months. and what’s eating his head now is simple: i’m putting out facts, and that scrambles his burnt-out neuro wiring.

what’s really getting his goat? he now having to interrupt his two-week holiday just to log in, post bull**** to desperately keep his short position alive.

my advice: don’t give him the oxygen. starve him of air. let his short suffocate and when cas-4 and cas-5 come online, he will hopefully **** off back under the rock he crawled from.

gla.