Member Info for John2727

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With the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela tightening the gas and oil supply chain, TXP’s acquisition of Central Block appears to be a well-timed move that strengthens its position in Trinidad. By leveraging its gas resources, renegotiating pricing contracts, and expanding production, TXP has the potential to become a leading independent gas producer in the region.

This move could significantly boost its valuation, particularly if it can increase production toward its 20,000 boe/d target and gain access to LNG-linked pricing

Spot on—if a sidetrack is happening, even just a short clarification from TXP would be useful. In a capital-restrained environment, unexpected costs matter to investors. Lack of updates fuels speculation, which TXP should want to avoid. Hopefully, we get clarity soon!

Also, since Discord has posted a 15% holding (to date) there’s a request going out to TXP which can’t be ignored. Your experience and holding would help in this regard.

I get It! Discord can be a mixed bag, but this thread is just as negative! If you’re real TXP holders, let’s back the company instead of just tearing down different forums.

Cas-2 had a gas kick, which is why it didn’t reach its original TD.

Cas-3 followed through but hit oil with gas set up! huge deal

Cas-4 is now being drilled with the same rig, and if they brought MPD it suggests they might have hit another high-pressure zone (like 2). If that’s the case, TXP could be pushing deeper into even better sands with the new equipment. Who knows (AIMO), but let’s support the team while respecting each of the forums. The bigger picture still looks strong, so let’s not get lost in the noise until updated.

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I believe the fuel to start engines will be best update on December numbers and that they are higher than November numbers (Curve definitely flattened) ST2 is stable and they are still pumping 500-600 barrels from ST3 and no trucking over that bridge and rig in place on B pad, finishing with a happy ending of CB now signed and in our control which in turn means finance approved. I’m hoping ST3 will not be the dampener of any upcoming RNS

Apparently the next satellite pass will show the rig on pad B. Hopefully they can update tomorrow with Decembers numbers 🙏

Hasn’t material news already been provided by way of the last RNS?. CB will come under TCX ownership as of the 1st Jan 2025. Loan mostly agreed for the acquisition, and st4 spud in the week of Jan.

I assumed if none of the above happened or about to happen then that’s new material news and they RNS. Otherwise, no news (IMO) is good news and next news will be ops update and when ST4 gets to depth and they inform the market of the hopefully good sands and pressure and we looking to hook up so time in March.

There’s a lot of focus on price here, and there should be, but it’s worth putting the true value of this acquisition into perspective.

Think about the time, cost, and effort it took to bring the Cascadura facility to where it is today. TXP spent years planning, building, dealing with T&T jobworths and getting commissioning sign off on Cas facility, alongside pipework, roadworks, and bridges, to achieve capacity for 100 mmcf/d. The scale of effort involved not to mention the associated capital expenditure, dilution and the many delays cannot be understated.

Now, within 2 quarters (hopefully), TXP will acquire a ready-made infrastructure land package for, what I believe, a bargain:

An operational 80 mmcf/d facility (gas and liquids),

Existing pipework and roads,

Central Block production already generating cash flow 18 mmcf/d gross, plus the many opportunity for infill wells, workovers, and further expo development.

This is infrastructure and production we don’t have to build from scratch. If TXP were to recreate this, it would likely cost double or triple the acquisition price and take years of effort, adding significant risk to the balance sheet. Instead, we hopefully on the 1/1/25 gain operational assets and scale immediately, while preserving the option to optimise production and explore further upside with development wells.

To put it simply, we’re paying $22m minus 2 Q production for a producing from a mature block with all the hard yards already done. This deal isn’t just about today’s production – it’s about leveraging existing infrastructure to grow output efficiently and quickly.

Yes, market sentiment is cautious, but deals like this don’t come along often. The pieces are there: infrastructure, production, and growth potential. Management just needs to execute, which I now actually believe that can now they have put in the years with locals and government!

Time and cost saved + cash flow + development upside = A deal worth backing.

DYOR as always, but I see the bigger picture here. Best of luck all!

“Whilst I had expected good performance from TXP earlier this year the god news has arrived, later than I first thought but understandably so and no less welcome, this is a great Christmas gift and in Touchstone with such huge potential upside it looks like a great play for 2025.”

Cas3 flowing c. 500 bbls/d. Confirmed at this mornings analyst meeting

Disagree! money is certainly flowing into oil and gas exploration, but the challenge lies in TXP delivering consistent updates and clear timelines to restore market confidence. This isn't just about dividends but about executing a strategy that highlights its significant asset base. Patience will be rewarded for those who see the longer-term vision.

Continue to undervalue the company in the short term. For those willing to hold on, the potential rewards from Cas and other projects could outweigh the current challenges.

We are certainly playing the long game and while we do, companies like Tullow oil are trading at 20p with 66k a day production but are $1.7b in debt while our debt metrics are at 1.4 to the company’s internal 2 leverage ceiling.

Maybe it’s North or maybe news had filtered through that 2/3 are declining or ST 4 is delayed due to the bridge infrastructure not yet complete, but I can see why’s there’s panic sells as no one really knows what’s coming next.

Today’s ultra low SP can’t be ignored, and one of the key reasons behind this is the lack of immediate catalysts to drive short-term value. While the company has solid assets and potential, the market seems to be discounting the long-term prospects due to delays and the absence of near-term triggers.

Key Issues are Cas Delays, which was supposed to be TXP's flagship project, but delays in ramping up production have eroded market confidence. While production is growing, the pace is much slower than we all expected, leaving investors frustrated, despite PB’s assurances time and time again but PB is now toast and if the 10/12 is a disaster then he has to go!!

Diversification is rife in the fact the operations are solely concentrated in Trinidad, and while this focuses efforts, it also exposes the company to regulatory and infrastructure risks, limiting its ability to deliver immediate growth, due to constantly missing deadlines and also the lack of on site experience and so on..

Despite the resent good news last month on 2/3 we are continuing the death spiral and not forgetting where we were before PB whet on an empire building programme that screwed the SP and continued its drop. We now wait on the 2025 exploration capex with us all looking for high-impact exploration activity as a the catalyst to get our investment out of this death spiral, however, its all about currently stabilising production, which, while important, doesn’t excite the market in the same way exploration success does.

The market sentiment against Small Caps is also hurting TXP. Small-cap energy companies are facing reduced investor interest, particularly in the current climate of high interest rates and volatility in commodity prices.

While the lack of immediate catalysts is concerning, it’s important to remember TXP’s long-term value proposition:

Strong 2P Reserves: With 67.4 MMboe in 2P reserves, TXP is sitting on a significant resource base that could drive production for years to come.

Cas once fully operational, is expected to materially boost cash flow and transform TXP’s financial position along with low debt levels compared to its peers. With manageable debt, allowing us to weather delays without overly stressing its balance sheet, we now need to demonstrate consistency with regular production updates with clear timelines and deliverables will reassure the market to bolster and Identify near term catalysts. Even small wins, like incremental production increases or new contracts, can restore momentum.

Our next life line now seems to be a week away and when they announce future exploration activities, even if years away, would signal growth beyond Cas and into Rio and more.

Management needs to engage more with shareholders, highlighting milestones and addressing concerns transparently. It’s clear that TXP is a long-term play that requires patience. However, without immediate catalysts, the market will likely continue t

With Cascadura-3ST1 successfully tested, Touchstone will continue to monitor and optimize production in the proven middle sand interval, while further evaluating the deeper and shallower zones for additional hydrocarbon potential. Future drilling in the Rio Claro extension area is anticipated to validate the expanded resource footprint and confirm our reservoir models, setting the stage for strategic growth.

Cascadura-3ST1 Well Testing Reveals Promising Results

The Cascadura-3ST1 well, drilled within the Herrera Formation, has delivered promising test results across multiple intervals. Testing initially produced a steady flow of clean oil at rates of 300 to 400 barrels per day (bpd) with minimal water production in the middle sand interval, which was identified as highly lucrative. Testing of the deeper intervals continues to show robust gas presence, while the middle zone remains a standout with stable oil production and a minimal water cut of approximately 2%.

These findings confirm the potential for sustainable oil production and highlight the importance of the middle sand as a valuable zone with significant commercial viability.

Substantial Reserve Estimates with Enhanced Valuation Potential

Initial reservoir estimates for Cas 3ST1 project an oil-in-place volume exceeding 125 million barrels across tested intervals, with total recoverable reserves estimated at approximately 50 million barrels under primary and waterflood recovery scenarios. The middle sand interval, given its low water production and stable flow rates, is particularly valuable.

At an estimated in-situ valuation of $4 per barrel, Cascadura’s potential could translate into a market cap uplift of around USD 100 million, representing a meaningful growth opportunity against the company’s current valuation.

Compartmentalised Structure Optimizes Development Potential

The Cascadura Ortoire asset is divided into two compartmentalized blocks, enabling an efficient, targeted development approach. Block A, which includes Cas 1ST1 and Cas Deep, spans approximately 2,300 meters by 800 meters. Block B, which hosts Cas 2ST1, measures around 1,000 meters by 1,250 meters. This structural configuration enables optimized planning and enhances the ability to unlock resource potential across distinct areas of the field.

Expansion into Rio Claro Block Adds Significant Acreage

The recent mapping and structural analysis indicate an extension of Cascadura into the neighbouring Rio Claro block. Preliminary estimates suggest a prospect size of approximately 1,100 acres, representing an exciting addition to our portfolio. We anticipate that this expansion could add an estimated 770 acres of resource-rich area, given shape adjustments and the structural alignment of the prospect. This growth opportunity aligns with our commitment to maximizing value from our Trinidad assets.

Roll on the next Spud 1week of December and then tap into Rio oil