Member Info for John2727

This is indeed a strong RNS for Touchstone Exploration. With the high production rates from Cascadura-2ST1 and mix of Oil & Gad Cascadura-3ST1, it’s reasonable to expect a significant boost to overall production, potentially doubling it. The strategic infrastructure and the new oil play further enhance the long-term outlook, making this a promising development for the company’s growth trajectory.

Given TXP significant near-term catalysts, particularly with the 2ST and 3ST coming online soon, there’s now a strong case for considering TXP among the top 5 AIM companies to invest in.

Their growth potential hinges on significant production upside. 2 and 3 are expected to substantially increase their production capacity, driving revenue and cash flow, which will likely attract investor interest.

TXP have already invested $30m+ in infrastructure to handle a much larger production capacity, positioning them well to capitalise on these new wells.

With 67.4 MMboe in 2P reserves to date and an extended reserve life index, we now have a strong asset base for continued growth. With the focus on natural gas, align with global energy demand trends, making them attractive in a transitioning energy market. Confidence in the presentation report with communicated timelines and progress, it demonstrate confidence in achieving their near-term production goals. GlA next week could come a massive step change

Cheers, just shows how fwe need to go back over 4 years to pick up needed data. So assuming the new well model is mirrored in geo terms the guesstimate is around 40-50 for both wells if the perimeters on the pipe and choke sizes are the same. That would be welcome only if they don't decline as fast and as much as ST1 and shows we need to get pad b drilled asap and add a further 3-4 wells over the 1st 6m of 2025

I'm unable to find any mention of pressures exceeding 4,000 psi in the publicly available data​. Do you have an RNS date/number

Okay, let's assume they used the same pipe and new choke size at Cascadura-1ST1 when they did the Flow Test Parameters

ST1 Wellhead Pressure: Initially, 3,300 psi (similar to the current 3,600 psi in Cascadura-2ST1).

Choke Size: 32/64 inches in later stages, which significantly increased flow.

Flow Rate: Cascadura-1ST1 achieved flow rates of up to 30MMcf/d and produced 709 barrels of condensate per day.

So if we apply these same parameters to Cascadura-2ST1 and Cascadura-3ST1:

Given that Cascadura-2ST1 has a higher wellhead pressure (3,600 psi vs. 3,300 psi) and is testing similar formations to Cascadura-1ST1, it is reasonable to estimate that the flow rates for Cascadura-2ST1 will likely be in the range of 25-30 MMcf/d once fully optimized and connected, assuming similar choke sizes and tubing parameters.

Cascadura-3ST1 had slightly lower pressures at 2,665 psi but flowed both crude oil and gas. While the oil rates are reported (300-400 barrels/day), the gas flow rates from the Herrera interval could be slightly lower but still significant, potentially in the 20-25 MMcf/d range, depending on future optimization.

We’re talking TXP here so allowing for all sorts of drama and trinity nonsense then I’m happy to stand by my 63p! But once and if market finally prices in out 2P’s by hopefully year end then definitely, I’m with you on a quid come year end. 3 years ago we were touching 1:80 so best stay well conservative until numbers are known

With TXP currently trading around 31.50p and a market cap of approximately £71.43 million, the upcoming months could be pivotal. TXP is set to bring an additional a guided (conservative) 80 million cubic feet (Mcf) per day of gas production online through four new wells, expected by January 2025. This potential doubling of production could lead to doubling to around £142.86 million, which could translate to a share price of approximately 63p.

However, this estimate primarily focuses on the immediate impact of increased production. It's crucial to also consider the confirmed 2P reserves, which include not only crude oil and natural gas but also natural gas liquids (NGL). These reserves represent the economically recoverable quantities that TXP has identified in its assets.

The net present value (NPV) of these reserves adds substantial long-term value to the company. If the market starts to fully value these 2P reserves, including the NGL, TXP’s share price could rise way beyond the 63p estimate, reflecting both the immediate production increases and the longer-term potential from its significant reserve base.

The combination of increased production and the inherent value of 2P reserves, including NGL, positions TXP for a potential re-rating in the market. While the actual share price will depend on various factors, including execution and broader market conditions, the upside potential appears very strong.

If Cas 2/3 come on and settle at 20 each at the end of September then the TXP SP will raise and settle around the 70p mark. B Pad Launchpad is 90% completed and will be ready to spud by Oct/Nov and should add a further 20 by Jan taking the SP to 90p- £1 If TXP hit or are close to their guidance by the end of Q4 then £1.30-1.40 No brainer to take the TXP offer and a bit of risk then take the cash offer

We need (I believe) an RNS will come some point today outlining TXP are out of the running. Once it hits I will be hoping SP will hit high 30’s at a minimum. But AIM is a whole new rulebook and can only hope 🙏

So if Cas 2/3 come on line, in September @ a rate of 50 Mmcf/d each and both then settle at (35 each) 70MMcf/d, then this translating to 12,211 boe/d, total over the final 2 quarters then combining these number with current oil and NGL production, TXP’s total output is projected to reach around 13,496 boe/d at the end of Q4?

Important Update for TXP Investors

On July 24, 2024, Trinity Exploration & Production Plc announced receiving a conditional offer from Lease Operators Limited, potentially affecting the current acquisition agreement with Touchstone Exploration Inc. The new offer proposes a cash buyout at a higher value than the all-share deal with Touchstone. The court hearing to finalize the Touchstone deal has been rescheduled to August 23, 2024, to allow time for consideration of this new proposal. This development introduces significant new factors for all stakeholders. Further updates will be provided as the situation evolves.

Tomorrow leaves 11 trading days to go. Then news will come thick and fast and hopefully the re-rate all LTH have been waiting for.

Had that feeling since 2021. Regardless, the reserves are in the ground, which have independently been verified!! it’s just a matter of time (4-6 weeks IMO) that the markets will be unable to manipulate and customers pile back in. I will be gutted if this share is not 50-60 by September and a quid by year end

Finally!! Approx. 20 days and we will be back to 50-60p IMO

Don’t shoot me down but if Trinity signs off on the takeover at the end of this month but the deal takes 6+ months to ratify, then while we wait for the ink to dry TXP can send in their experts to fully review Trinity's data and operations ( I take it that full disclosed of Trin’s data only happens if the vote goes through) Similarly, Trinity's experts, once the vote goes through, could collaborate with TXP and try help optimise processes and improve our timelines while both parties prepare for integration and maximise the benefits of the acquisition once ratified over so many months?

From the TCP discord group…. Cas 4 will spud the week after TD on Cas 3 So Cas4 first week of April if drilling of Cas 3 goes according to plan. Domus has updated his timeplan on a norwegian forum

1domus: The Cas-2 well is cased and cemented and Cas-3 will be spudded shortly.

The Coora well is also spudded according to info.

Think about holding TXP like planting a tree. While it’s taken time to grow and bear fruit, each year adds more branches, increasing its value. As TXP develops its operations and explores new opportunities, its potential for growth expands its branches. While the SP is depressed at the moment, once all the blocks fall into place by 25/26 anyone who is buying in now or with below £1 average will see returns with every year held will bare more and more fruit. Think about compound interest on savings as new gas and oil is added over 2024 and new expo is identified over 24/25. The TXP label is a 10 year cooking time and is 7 years into that cook time and will be ready to serve the best fruit you’ve ever had in 2-3 years, which requires patience but will yield significant returns. AIMO

It’s been a long long road and a brutal collapse of the SP from the £1:70’s But this is the first time in over 3 years that Cas and the overwork will take us to 90p by March 25th and then to £1:20 once cas 2 starts pumping. New separator, perfs, upgrade of choke and Q4 massive increase on incoming cash for the quarter

For those who want to know about p1 & P2 reserves

When wireline logs, which are used to evaluate subsurface formations, indicate positive results, it may suggest that additional reserves could be present. However, the decision to reclassify reserves from 2P to 1P typically requires further testing and confirmation through additional appraisal wells, production testing, or other data validation processes. This reclassification indicates a higher level of confidence in the reserves' commercial viability.

An increase in 1P reserves would indeed have a positive impact on the company's Net Asset Value (NAV) as it represents a higher quantity of proven and commercially recoverable resources. A higher NAV may also positively influence the company's Market Capitalization (MC), as investors may perceive the company as having greater value and potential for future profitability.