Member Info for John2727

Stas….PB has just responded to another 20+ questions from the Discord group. I have posted them on management answers. Feel free to hop over and take a read.

Had a catch up with PB yesterday and few key takeaways

CR3: Currently producing from the Herrera formation (same as CR1/CR2). Early signs are encouraging, with improving and more sustained flow as the well cleans up. For context, CR1 & CR2 are currently doing ~8–9 MMcf/d.

CR4: Effectively approved, but being sequenced properly. They want CR3 fully cleaned up first and may run coil tubing if required before spudding.

Karamat: Still behind pipe and not included in current reserves. If proven, this would represent new reserve additions, not currently reflected in the model.

Pricing: Central gas is currently sold under a blended contract (~1/3 Henry Hub, ~2/3 LNG-linked).

Covenants: Production uplift is included in forecasts but risked at 50%, and importantly no higher pricing assumptions are built in. PB was clear that pricing is the key driver for covenant headroom.

VAT: $9.4m outstanding and considered material. They are exploring ways to monetise this given slow government repayment

That wording always stands out. But it’s worth noting it’s framed as “in the absence of mitigating actions,” i.e. a worst-case scenario.

The key question is whether those mitigating actions are real or not. Since year-end we’ve already had CR3 come online, Central throughput increase, LNG-linked pricing starting to come through, and the Cascadura compressor due online in May to address the backpressure issue.

They’ve also confirmed they’re already in discussions with lenders regarding amendments or waivers.

So I don’t think the risk disappears but it’s not a static situation either. The next few months are about whether operational improvements start feeding through as expected.

You’re right to question it, but the 39% isn’t revenue it’s operating netback, which has been squeezed this year by lower liquids pricing and higher gas costs.

The key thing is those numbers are backward looking. Q4 doesn’t include CR3 (Hopefully will clean up) and doesn’t reflect LNG-linked pricing.

So yes, Q4 isn’t pretty on the surface, but it’s more a transition quarter than a broken business model and the forward picture will hopefully look very different.

From here it’s about execution..CR3 clean-up and stabilised rates, CR4 adding incremental volume, Central continuing to scale, and the Cascadura compressor lifting back pressure plus the 4 well program at WD8 & R.. If those land, you should see both production and netbacks move materially through 2026.

Q4 pretty much as expected — not pretty, but importantly not a disaster.

Production held up at ~4,877 boe/d and debt actually reduced to $72.9m.

Netbacks and cash flow still weak, but that was already known pre-results.

The key is Central now contributing ~2,065 boe/d (~40% of production), just as CR3 comes online and LNG pricing starts to flow through.

Yesterday’s update matters more than today’s numbers this is now about the forward model, not Q4.

Yep, info on CR3 on Monday

Ops update expected Monday, financials Tuesday

CR-4 BOD approval Monday and will be included in the second announcement (Tuesday)

Compressor is on the way but not in country yet with all site work complete, ready for install

Cas3 work is being approved as part of the 2026 capital program (so not abandoned)

A positive update IMO because is CR4 BOD approval Monday then they must have enough data to warrant the capex

Q4 now due 30/3/25

Not interested in tit for tat Ross especially with someone who’s not an SH. Everyone’s responsible for their own decisions , I just share my view openly as a long-term holder. I manage my risk accordingly, trim when uncertain, add when confident.

If I’m wrong and things land well, I’ll happily pay a penny or two to rebuild my position and more.

Just to add a bit of context. I haven’t sold out, I trimmed 30% purely as risk management going into Q4 + CR3 uncertainty. I’m still holding the majority and will look to add depending on how things land.

Also worth saying that one of the strengths of this Discord is transparency, with people sharing when they buy and some what they sell. But that only works if it’s taken as personal positioning, not signals to follow. Everyone’s risk profile and time horizon is different.

Even +4 mmcf/d from CR-3 would represent roughly a 20% increase on current CB production 21 mmcf/d

Worth remembering TXP have already lifted the existing four CB wells from around 17 mmcf/d to ~21 mmcf/d through optimisation alone effectively adding the equivalent of another well without the capex of drilling one.

That will do far more for the share price than any symbolic share purchase from PB.

This is probably the most important operational week for TXP, and all eyes should really be on Wednesday’s financials and the expected CR-3 update.

Following confirmation from Paul Baay that the Centra would restart after its maintenance shutdown and bringing CR-3 online, the facility was brought back into operation at the end of play on Friday 13th.

The plant is expected to run for a short stabilisation period before the valves on CR-3 are opened.

If operations follow the normal sequence, that suggests the well could begin flowing into the system within the next 24.

The key question now will be how CR-3 performs once the well cleans up and stabilises.

TRIN struggling to unlock Galeota says as much about project size and balance-sheet limitations as it does about Trinidad….Offshore capex-heavy oil isn’t the same animal as onshore tied-in gas.

Ross, I read it as both figures are correct $4.02m was total Q3 DD&A… $1.50m was the increase versus the prior year.

Simply put… it’s describing different aspects of the same number or did I misunderstand?

G, I appreciate the clarification on your selling and wish you well in your new investment venture. I also genuinely feel for your losses as many here have suffered in different ways after misreading the landscape back in 2021.

On the wider point, strong language aside, accusations of deliberate market-misleading are serious and, in the absence of specifics, inevitably contentious. Everyone is, of course, entitled to their own view. Otherwise, there’s a risk of blurring genuine frustration with hindsight bias.

CR-3 will ultimately be judged on data, not sentiment. Until then, everyone has to manage their own risk and exposure.

Without criticism, I’ve always taken note of your frustrations and have raised some directly with TXP. Having spent a full day on site with Paul and the team, the only feedback I can offer is that the focus is firmly on Central Block and on stabilising current declines, something that should become clearer over the coming 2–3 weeks.

CR-3 update: Installation of the flowline is now complete, which is a key surface infrastructure milestone ahead of tie-in, commissioning and well operations.

Separately, the new compressor foundation pad now poured at Pad A

There’s no argument that earlier expectations were optimistic. But today TXP is a very different company. Cascadura, Central Block and legacy production are all real, producing and cash-positive, and together they cover debt service - albeit without much slack. That’s exactly why management has prioritised stability over growth at this time.

Central Block is already a meaningful cash contributor: while it represents roughly 40–45% of volumes, its lower operating costs mean it contributes a higher share of operating cash flow. With the main pipeline runs now complete and only final tie-ins and sign-off remaining, Central Block is well positioned to be the most efficient area for near-term growth.

Some recent declines are operational rather than structural. The manufacturing fault on the Cascadura-3 pump is being rectified at no cost, workover options are being evaluated at Cascadura-4, and compression at Cascadura should stabilise deliverability rather than chase aggressive growth there.

Central Block remains upside, not existential risk but CR-3 should tell us most of what we need to know for the rest of 2026. I’d rather see TXP survive, de-lever and rebuild by growing Central Block sensibly than chase higher-risk growth elsewhere or be forced into a distressed outcome.

Ross, the decline points to pressure and deliverability constraints, not reservoir collapse. That’s exactly why TXP invested in a high-spec compression, informed by 3D modelling, to equalise flowing pressures and recover gas that’s already booked (i.e. independently certified proved reserves on the balance sheet, not hypothetical gas)

The TRIN comparison doesn’t really hold. Cas hasn’t been suffering from terminal reservoir collapse or extreme wellhead pressure constraints in the way TRIN’s legacy onshore system was. The issue has been system back-pressure and export constraints, not wells “running out of gas.”

TXP’s setup is also fundamentally different: dedicated infrastructure, controlled inflows, and compression added proactively rather than as a last-ditch optimisation on a dying asset. The rationale for the new compressor comes directly from observed results at Central Block, where compression materially stabilised output across multiple producing wells.

No one is suggesting compression reverses reservoir decline. The objective is to reduce back-pressure, improve drawdown, slow pressure-driven decline and stabilise the base

The decline in non-CB production isn’t a surprise, it’s exactly what mature Trinidad gas does without reinvestment. That’s also precisely why TXP has committed further capex to a high-spec compressor to arrest decline, lower flowing pressures and stabilise the legacy base so Central Block volumes are additive, not simply plugging a hole. TXP has been very clear on priorities. As PB has said, the focus is on Central Block first, the CAS compressor second, and the balance sheet third, in that order.

Pointing at declining non-CB volumes while ignoring compression investment is selective at best. Non-CB decline and adding to production over past several months is the reason the new Cad compressor was bought, not evidence it was missed.