Member Info for John2727

Yes, G has been consistently negative for months, arguing that management failed to protect shareholder value and even lied. Is he right or wrong? Honestly, he’s mostly right; otherwise, we wouldn’t all still be here, months later, debating his posts or trying to deflect from the fact he’s hit a few home truths.

The reality is, grown-up investors knew what they were buying (including G) or should have done their own due diligence. Anyone truly done with TXP could’ve sold when the red flags first appeared, but many didn’t. They averaged down or locked their shares away, hoping it would rebound. Now we’re all here, lock, stock and barrel, fighting each other to defend our own positions instead of focusing on the path forward , which, IMO, is a micro-explorer now positioned perfectly.

Those still holding either believe the story or are hanging on for dear life and that’s okay. My take: the next 8–12 weeks are obviously critical, and PB’s got his last get-out-of-jail card. So either get behind the company and protect your investment, or fold.

If the next 8-12 weeks fail, then it’s EGM time for those still invested. Until then, let’s trade smarter and not tear each other, or our own investment, down.

CB will be the catalyst when Q4 numbers land and that’s why I’m still here.

Correction! 144,000 net acres rather than 40,000

G,

I respect that you’ve laid out your own clear expectations, and I agree that execution is everything now.

But I’m not interested in rewriting goalposts based on anger or frustration; I’m interested in setting thresholds that are measurable and fair because those are the only ones that carry weight if and when we go formal.

On Cas-5, yes, it must be commercial. PB confirmed flow began on 1 Nov, and if it’s not proven commercial by mid-Nov, that’s failure. Whether it’s 10 or 15 MMcf/d will be judged on flow stability and choke settings. I’d rather be fact-based than chase arbitrary numbers before the data’s released. The whole point of the compressor coming in Q2 2026 is to stabilise the line pressure and maximise combined output from the field. So while Cas-5 may flush high initially, I’m expecting them to choke it back deliberately to protect and balance Cas-1 & 2 output - that’s operational management, not under-performance.

On Central Block, I’m keeping end-December as the outer limit. The rig is ready to move mid-Nov, and having seen the pad and logistics , a few weeks’ delay isn’t a disaster but silence or no spud by year-end would be.

On Cas-4, I don’t disagree. Getting it cleaned up and tied in by end January 2026 is reasonable, long enough to be fair, short enough to be accountable.

You also need to recognise that oil & gas is a graveyard of “next-big-thing” explorers, especially in Trinidad where bureaucracy and infrastructure choke most juniors. TXP have made their share of mistakes, but they’ve also survived long enough to control over 40,000 net acres, operate multiple processing facilities capable of handling hundreds of MMcf/d in aggregate, and secure tiered LNG-linked gas pricing on Central Block that increases above 22,000 Mcf/d (they’re already around 23,000). That’s not nothing and it’s why I’m still here, with all eyes now on the first CB well.

If they fail on two or more of the key operational or financial thresholds within the next 8–12 weeks, then yes, I’ll circulate the draft letter and start the EGM requisition process as promised. But we’ll do it based on evidence, not emotion.

Appreciate you saying you’ll ease off the personal stuff if we set fair benchmarks, that’s the right way to do it.

G, I only come on here every few days and every time I do, the convo hasn’t moved on. You asked what I’d call “failure,” so here it is, clearly and without noise.

Cas-5 - PB confirmed last Friday that flow will commence on 1 Nov, with calibration and choke management taking several days. So we should see an RNS this week or early next, once data stabilises. If it’s not flowing commercially by mid-November (i.e. sub-5 MMcf/d or stuck indefinitely), that’s failure.

Central Block (CB) – Spud is expected mid-November, and having driven the road from Pad A to the CB pad myself, I’d say a short delay isn’t a disaster. But if we get to end-December without a spud or clear explanation, that’s failure. Once the first well is down, investors can fairly judge timing for the next three CB wells if the first is commercial.

Compressor project – any material slip in the Q2 2026 schedule or financing would also qualify as failure.

Financial discipline – any new equity raise before Cas-5 or CB are proven (or without a transparent, lender-driven reason) would be unacceptable. A debt covenant breach or forced renegotiation suggesting lender pressure would raise similar concerns.

Governance and communication management refusing to engage on material questions, cancelling Q&As, or failing to publish a clear post-Cas-5 roadmap in the next MD&A would all show poor leadership. Any undisclosed related-party or governance lapse would be a red flag.

Stewardship – even if operations succeed, if communication continues to undermine trust and the share price stays pinned despite delivery, that’s a failure of stewardship, not off the rocks.

One bad day doesn’t warrant an EGM – setbacks happen. But two or more of the above within 8–12 weeks would justify formal action. At that point, I’ll send the “first-class” email and start the requisition conversation.

Until then, we document, request clarity in writing, and give management the chance to deliver. If they don’t, then it’s time to act.

Cas 4 is planned to be worked over on the next maintenance down-time (believed to be in the next 4 months) if you look at all the slides, there’s definitely pay and it’s just a question of getting 4 cleaned up IMO. But the logic is to get cas 5 turning the pay meter and getting cash on the books to push the planned CB well/s until the planned maintenance shutdown.

The TXP instagrame showing Cas 5 Tie-in all ready or nearly for the taps to be turned on this weekend is good news

G,

It’s difficult to work through all the noise, but like I said and a few others agree, you’re mostly right, just not quite. We’re all grown-ups (mostly) and we each know where we stand, making our own calls on where we’ll be six months or so from now.

For me, with the bank overhang gone, yes dilution hurts, but honestly, they didn’t have much choice. You can analyse the bad decisions and call for PB’s removal if you wish, but that won’t change where we are today or a few months from now.

Now we’ve got a new crew, Cas-5 about to flow, the CB spud next, CB currently producing ~23,000, a new compressor coming in Q2, and Cas-4 due for an overwork and hook-up during the planned maintenance downtime.

That’s a lot of moving parts finally lining up. So let’s at least see what the next few months bring and who knows, maybe we hit 20p by January and you can sail off into the sunset.

All I ask is you give the negativity a rest and let the next 8–12 weeks to allow them prove their new mandate. If that fails, I’ll be the first to sign and send your EGM letter, by first class post and I’m sure plenty of others will too.

Retail Offer: £0.68m via 6.18m shares at 11p (closed Oct 28)

Private Placement: £6.32m via 57.45m shares at 11p (announced Oct 24)

Admission: all 63.6m new shares expected to trade on AIM & TSX tomorrow (Oct 30, 8am London)

Fair point, Dunderhead - yes, that’s how I read it too. PB’s wording was that executives must personally fund their own purchases, and the company then matches those. So, it’s not “free stock” in the old sense, because management are required to co-invest real cash to qualify.

The key takeaway is alignment - every share matched now represents both company and personal investment, which is a big shift from the old option model.

For those who still support TXP the discord put together 17 questions to put forward to PB and these were dropped 14 that were put forward. Here’s where we stand after PB’s replies.

However whatever your personal opinion of TXP or of PB, you have to first acknowledge that this kind of direct engagement from a CEO is rare on AIM and while I’m not expecting PB’s replies to satisfy the most critical posters on this board, I can only post PB’s replies to what was asked in the 14 questions put forward.

Rather than cherry-pick all 14 replies here’s the first three and it’s not about the surface words, but about tone, confidence, and what they reveal about where they (and us hopefully) are at the moment.

Q1. Board & Management Alignment

PB confirmed that the option scheme is gone and replaced by a performance-linked PSU program. Executives now buy into their share plan with cash “no free stock.”

He’s clearly aware this has been a sore point and is quietly signalling, “We heard you, we fixed it!

Q2. Dilution & Financing Clarity

PB stated

“The last financing was done to meet the bank obligations tied to the Central Block acquisition. No further equity is contemplated for 2026.”

Financial reset now confirmed 2026 should be about operations, not balance-sheet firefighting.

Q3. Gas Pricing

PB clarified that Central Block gas is fully contracted to Shell’s contracts and current pricing discussions are for new volumes at Cascadura, not CB. He’s trying to draw the line between what’s fixed and what’s flexible, cleaning up the confusion created by rumour and misinterpretation. Time will tell and hopefully we can look at this as a bolt on to mid 2026 Cas’s locked 2027 gas prices. Commercial control re-established but don’t expect miracles on CB pricing just yet.

These first three responses feel like a reset not emotional, not defensive, just structured.

PB’s underlying message:

“Stop guessing. Here are the facts. Judge us on execution from here.”

If anyone wants to see the full 14 Q&As, they’re posted in sequence in the Discord management-answers thread.

GLA with the months ahead

G,

As previously stated, I actually think your frustrations are justified and we’ve all taken a beating here, and there are some valid points in what you’re saying. The share price collapse, the poor timing of past raises, and the lack of clarity around the bank covenant have all hurt confidence badly. Holders deserve better communication and a clear sign that management are financially aligned, and that is the message I send to TXP almost daily.

For what it’s worth, Jeff Wood has recently added 500,000 shares through two open-market buys last week, after the US $12.5 m debenture closed. That doesn’t fix sentiment, but it does show some alignment at these levels.

But more importantly, the way you’re going about it risks undoing the valid message. Public threats, insults, and talk of EGMs right when the company’s on the verge of bringing Cas-5, Cas-4, and CB online could do more harm than good. The covenant issue is structural, it’s about how the balance sheet looks, not whether TXP can operate and if a raise helps meet that, the focus should be on structure, insider participation, and clear disclosure. In short, you’re right about the problems, IMO just wrong about the method at this time.

One bit of advice, if you or others genuinely want a reply to any email, they’ll only consider the observations seriously if you use your real name and confirm your shareholding, so they can validate that they’re dealing with a verified investor.

Best of luck but IMO wait until the end of November.

G, Just to clarify, I’m only acting as a go-between for the Discord group and TXP, not speaking for the company. Whatever I share here is simply what I’ve been told directly.

PB has confirmed yesterday that if a raise does take place, the proceeds would be used purely to pay down debt and strengthen the balance sheet. He also mentioned previously in a Q&A that the focus through 2026 is to reduce as much debt as possible from operating cashflow.

In the EGM a member of the Discord group put together and verified our shareholding list last year, and those who declared represented around 13% of the company - so probably more if everyone had participated. It took several months of private verification for individuals to confirm their holdings and whether they’d support any potential resolution. This list is now outdated and would need to be e started again.

So while it’s absolutely every shareholder’s right to call an EGM, getting even 5% to agree privately and coordinate properly is a massive task.

My wish is to stay on the fence and just provide as much factual information as possible to help us all.

At this stage, I’d just like to see Cas-5 and Cas-4 online and the rig confirmed on the CB site by end of November.

If a raise does happen, my personal guess, and it’s only that - would be early December.

How the market reacts will depend on how it’s communicated.

If the RNS clearly states the funds are going solely to reduce current debt, that will help.

And if the Board personally buys shares at the same time, that would send the clearest signal yet that 2026 is about growth - with the bank’s boot finally off our necks.

GGG – I get it, but this isn’t about defending anyone. The $7.3m equity ask is written into the bank covenant, not optional. They’re looking at all routes – RBL, offtake, farm-out – but if those don’t land, equity’s the fallback.

Bottom line is we just need to play the hand that’s on the table, not the one we wish we’d been dealt.

I had a straight answer from PB (I had contact with him yesterday). Under the bank docs, Republic have asked for $7.3m in equity, and cashflow – regardless of what comes out of Cas-5 or Cas-4 – doesn’t meet that covenant.

PB confirmed again they’re still looking at all alternatives, including farm-outs and other funding routes, but if those fall through, then yes – an equity raise is likely.

My guess is that if a raise happens, it’ll be early December, once Cas-5 and then Cas-4 have proven their initial flow rates and the share price bounces back to the 16–17p range – before settling back around 12–13p post-raise.

Yes, it’ll sting for those of us still holding, but better to rip the plaster off, get the last $7.3m sorted, and move straight into two or three Central Block wells between November and March.

That’s when we could realistically see 10k+ boe/d by end of Q4, with Cascadura steady around 40 MMcf/d post-compression and CB’s 17-18 and the first CB well adding to the mix in Jan 26

The comment by Corpse about Exxon taking acreage offshore Trinidad, is definitely encouraging news even if it isn’t directly linked to TXP.

When a supermajor like Exxon comes back into a country, committing billions to exploration, it tells you one thing - they believe the basin still has serious gas potential. That kind of validation lifts the entire jurisdiction. Investors who had written Trinidad off are now paying attention again and that benefits everyone operating here, including TXP.

Exxon’s deal is deepwater, but the knock-on effects are all positive for onshore producers. The government now has every incentive to keep gas volumes up to feed Atlantic LNG and the petrochemical plants. That means more focus on domestic supply, faster permitting, and stronger support for companies already producing.

TXP sits right in the sweet spot of any ripples from that deal and Exxon’s presence helps shine a light back on Trinidad and brings in new funding, and that’s a good tailwind IMO 🙏

Different acreage, same benefit confidence in the basin lifts all boats.

Sorry a few typos as I’m out and about on the road.

Daughters * doubters

*Pad A

* all of his team

Thanks, Aligator, appreciate the thoughtful reply.

You’re absolutely right, the market never forgets. Once trust is dented, institutions step back until they see hard, repeatable delivery. That’s where we are now.

PB can’t PR his way out of this one, he has to earn the credibility back through performance. On one call I had with him a month or so ago, I outlined the frustrations and he said “It’s my job to prove the daughter is wrong.

I run a multi millon TO construction company and my contractor turnover rate is about 30% as after 35 years I have a good BS radar and unfortunately, the construction industry is a wash with liars and deceivers. But honestly in my opinion after spending a full 10 hour day with PB - he come over very open and honest, never try to cover any questions we asked and one of his team seems to respect him. We even had several buckets of Kentucky fried chicken delivered to pad eye control room and Paul was more than happy for us to look over all the monitors and ask loads of questions.

But! what I think the market is also missing is how much of the heavy lifting has already been done. I’ve seen it first-hand - from the forestry clearance to the bridges and logistics just to get the rigs to site. The infrastructure phase is complete; now we’re into the production phase, and that’s where value comes back quickest.

On the institutional side, I agree they’ll reappear once TXP shows 10–12k boe/d sustainable flow and clear cash generation. At that point, even a modest re-rating puts us well beyond the 30p range you mentioned.

Until then, I’ll keep doing what I’ve been doing — sharing facts from the ground and trying to keep this board balanced. We all want the same outcome in the end: a properly valued company that finally gets credit for what it’s built.

One well at a time.

So yes, he’s made errors. The Cas-4 mud fiasco was amateur hour; the communication around the raises was poor; and the optimism at times has been misplaced.

But the flip-side is this: we now have five producing wells, two more completing, and a company-built network that didn’t exist when the share price was 175p. If those new wells perform, cashflow fixes a lot of the pain you’ve listed.

You call it “lifestyle company of the year”; I call it a small O&G that built three gas plants, cleared forests, moved powerlines, and drilled ten wells with 50 staff and a market cap smaller than some AIM explorers’ G&A budgets. I’ve seen it first-hand. For all its flaws, that’s not a lifestyle company.

So let’s keep the criticism fair, hold him accountable for delivery, and give the next few completions a chance to prove the work wasn’t for nothing.

GGG – appreciate you taking the time to write all that out. Honestly, I don’t disagree with half of what you’ve said; the frustrations are real, and no one is pretending the last 12 months have been pretty. Where we differ slightly is on cause and context.

I’ll go point-by-point, because people deserve balance rather than more heat:

1. Trinity – Yes, PB over-sold the potential before it fell apart, but it didn’t collapse because TXP “lied”. Trinity received a higher cash offer from Lease Operators, and TXP stuck to price discipline. You can’t fault him for not chasing that up the ladder at any price.

2. “No raise required” / Central timing – He was clearly hoping Central would close with debt only, but Shell’s timetable and the Ministry approvals dragged by months. Once those slipped, he had to back-fill working capital. It’s poor optics, absolutely, but not some planned deception; more like classic small-cap optimism meeting bureaucracy.

3. The Portillion mess – agreed, that was a farce. It was supposed to be a quick bridge into the main raise; the funder fell over. He should have RNS’d it sooner. No argument there. That one’s on him.

4. “Another massive raise at 16p” – painful but unavoidable. The wells were half-drilled, the civils over-ran, and Cascadura-4’s issues tied up capital. If they’d stopped, we’d all be sitting here with two unfinished wells and zero production growth. At least the 16p raise kept the rigs turning and avoided another loan.

5. Debt & dilution – totally agree this is the market’s main fear now. But remember half the debt relates to Central Block – an acquisition that’s already generating cash. If Cas-5, Cas-4 and the next CR-3 deliver, that leverage ratio will drop fast. You don’t unwind a US$60m facility by talking about it; you unwind it by producing through it.

6. “Lies and deceit” – that’s where I think we all need to be careful. PB’s been too promotional at times, yes. But to call him deceitful ignores that he’s still on every quarterly call, still answering shareholder emails, and still out there front-and-centre. He could have gone to ground; he hasn’t. That tells me he knows the only way to rebuild credibility is to deliver wells, not words.

7. The football analogy – fair enough, but in oil & gas you can have a bad season and still own the pitch. TXP now owns the pitch – 145k acres, three operating gas plants and infrastructure worth hundreds of millions if you built it today. The question now is whether the manager gets them promoted again. Personally, I’ll judge that on Cas-5 and the next few wells, not past press releases.

just spent an hour or so reading through all the posts and, honestly, had to pour myself a strong drink afterwards.

the slurs against pb are way over the top. it’s the same few characters posting day in, day out, and any attempt at factual conversation just sinks into quicksand. it kills any useful discussion and makes this board almost unreadable.

yes, there have been mistakes — we all know about the delays, the bridge, the civils, and the odd ****-up — but the successes far outweigh the negatives.

when you look back at the first flow rates from coho, cas-1, deep, and cas-2, it’s easy to see why the share price ran to 175p in february 2021 — the market could see what was being built even then.

what no one expected was just how steep those early declines would be. that caught everyone off guard — management included — and ever since, the market’s assumed every well txp drills will fall off at the same rate.

the next six months should finally put that theory to bed. with six new wells coming online, production should at least triple from where it is today, and that’s before the cascadura compression upgrade lands in 2026

The Wells

Coho-1 (Ortoire)

Spudded 7 August 2019, reached TD 8,560 ft, and delivered the first onshore commercial gas in Trinidad in more than 20 years.

First gas October 2022, through the Coho plant rated around 24 MMcf/d.

Cascadura-1ST1 (Ortoire)

Tested March 2020 at roughly 30 MMcf/d of gas and 700 bbl/d of NGLs. Later tied into the Cascadura facility once commissioned in 2023.

Cascadura Deep-1

Confirmed further gas-liquids pay in 2020; came onstream alongside Cas-1ST1 when the plant became operational.

Cascadura-2ST1 (C-Pad)

November 2024 flow test: averaged 26.4 MMcf/d gas + 547 bbl/d NGLs (~4,950 boe/d).

Connected and producing through the Cascadura facility since November 2024.

Cascadura-3ST1 (C-Pad)

Oil-bearing discovery from the same campaign. Initially flowed strongly, then settled around 90 bbl/d total fluid (≈47 % oil) pending optimisation. (Still an important well, proving an oil window within the same structure.)

Cascadura-5 (B-Pad)

Spudded 4 June 2025, drilled to 7,020 ft TD in just 22 days (official RNS figure), extended from 6,654 ft on positive log data.

Encountered ≈620 ft of gross Herrera Gr7bc sands and cased for completion.

Completion and testing now under way, directly through the Cascadura plant.

Cascadura-4ST2X (B-Pad)

Ops resumed 16 Aug 2025, TD 5,896 ft (22 Sept 2025), gas-charged sands confirmed.

To be completed and tied in after Cas-5.

PB admitted that the first Cas-4 attempt went wrong - wrong mud system, mechanical issues but they owned it, changed the crew, switched to synthetic oil-based mud, and Cas-5 was drilled cleanly to TD in three weeks.

Mistake fixed, lesson learned.