Member Info for John2015

Cheers Bellers and Hello Fred

Putting on the tin hat and digging into the foxhole.

I've got to say its pretty hard to reconcile the reality with the pre ST2 commentary regarding the deal being good for shareholders, with minimal new equity and the catalyst for a re rate once the deal was done.
Maybe I'm judging too quickly, maybe next week we'll see the re rate - but looking back at 2016 and taking into account the deal on bonds with debt not resolved until Sept/Oct it pains me to say that a far more likely scenario is another summer in the doldrums with huge paper losses at least as large as ST1 to regain before we move on.
The money market is having a field day and guess who is footing the bill.

Maybe they're getting as bored if waiting as the rest of us ?

SP will not ( rather than sp will niypt ) really must buy a new IPad.

Not buying the OO until I'm sure the sp will niypt fall to less than 15p. Either way I will top up to lower my ave 24.9 and bring break even closer.
GLA LTH - quietly very pi**ed off.

Milo you really are a cheerful sod. Thanks for that !
Have a good day, I'm off out for a cup of coffee and a piece of my favourite cake, before any more doom mongers appear,

Redbull I share your doubt - but the projected NPV in the Nov 2018 presentation for 20mta in 2026 is £28.153bn.
That is too long for me, but my kids may benefit.
However if we assume the NPV is 100% converted to shares with 10.477bn in circulation
that would give £2.69 per share - (caution suggests 50% of this or £1.34 might be a more reasonable assumption.
Dissapointing given the figures being touted only a couple of days ago - but more optimistic than much of the comment today

All at prices meaning they've paid a fraction of the price for the shares LTH have.
Would have been nice if those were declared during the day taking the buys well above sells ?
Might even have lifted the sp a bit.
Sometimes the market turns your stomach.

St1 Nov 16 - not St 2 ( although there isn't much difference as far as the effect on sp goes.

Took several months to begin to recover after St2 Nov 16.
Sadly didn't think that would happen again ( should know better ), nursing 35% loss now no doubt like many others.
Wife not very happy !

Highbridge ( one of our "backers" ? and highest total shorted ) and Och Ziff plus a new player Polygon. JPM are still
there as well.
Ever feel like you've been tucked up ?
New total 6.64% Happy Days.

Quelle surprise

just as the market closes to justify another day in the red FFS

So not quite the £1, £2 or more we all hoped for ( expected ) then ?

GK your 11:18
Thanks for that very useful summary.
Various entry exit points to come I suspect. My original timeline revolved around values pre ST2, those now need
amending. That said holding long term (2029) will be almost as rewarding as we anticipated if the numbers are correct.
Knowing inflation and the variability of market prices they may well vary.
My intention now is to hold until I see a reasonable return ( say 100% ie 50p, whenever that is, certainly possible within a couple of years ) sell some to take a small profit/make sure I break even then retain as many as possible to pass on as I doubt very much I will be around in 2029.
Not what I originally intended or expected but life's like that.
GLA DYOR.

15lives thanks, pretty much the same here.
I will try and establish how many shares are likely to be in circulation to check figures. Any feedback or opinion welcome.
Like you pleased ST2 is (mostly) resolved and we have finance for the foreseeable, if a bit ticked off at the amount of dilution. Half of something is obviously better than half of nothing, just trying to figure out how big “something” is.

That should be 2024 not 2924 - or maybe the ipad knows something I don't ?

Thanks 15 I have been doing that at a conversion of 1.3.
The £15bn quoted most recently was a figure Chris Fraser used in an interview.
Previous to that yesterday I used figures from the SXX presentation converted to £ and then applied a 50% risk to the NPV.
Various figures, see my posts yesterday pm but all adjusted downward from expectations by the (probable) 10bn shares in circulation by production. Interested in any other estimates of likely total and quite happy to rework and share in a genuine attempt to get a realistic estimates of sp at 13mta and 20mta in 2021 and 2924 respectively. Taufur if you,re out there have you reworked your figures ? Myo please respond !

Dan thanks for that.