Member Info for JoeyDiamond

Just re-read the proposed Phase 3 trial design

Primary endpoint of the SG018 Phase III trial will be time to recovery to ‘no limitation of activities’ up to Day 28.
Secondary endpoints relating to two based on the OSCI score, worsening disease and discharge from hospital, and a further secondary endpoint on breathlessness.

I wonder if we will see some additional secondary endpoints checking people up after day 42 or 56 for example or a seperate follow up trial specifically for longer term effects?

Im surprised no one has mentioned Long Covid yet. This condition(s) are going to be a major issue going forward and will impact the workforce and the economy. So a treatment to prevent long covid is obviously required.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/two-thirds-patients-long-covid-19256902
'Two thirds of patients have ‘long Covid’ symptoms seven weeks after discharge, study finds. Research found that 54 days after discharge 69% of patients still experienced fatigue, 53% suffered from persistent breathlessness and 34% still had a cough.'

I think potentially there is more value with SNG001 being given to people for long covid prevention. The results in the trial would support this.

The odds of improvement on the OSCI scale were more than two-fold greater in the SNG001 group than in the placebo group on day 15 or 16 (odds ratio [OR] 2·32 [95% CI 1·07–5·04]; p=0·033; table 3; figure 2) and more than three-fold greater on day 28 (3·15 [1·39–7·14]; p=0·006

From the Synairgen team
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30511-7/fulltext
'In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre pilot trial in 98 patients, SNG001 increased the odds of improvement in clinical status (based on the 9-point WHO Ordinal Scale for Clinical Improvement [OSCI]) and enhanced the likelihood of recovery to a score of 1 on the OSCI (no limitation of activities)'
and
Due to an urgency to deliver a trial result in the setting of the COVID-19 pandemic, patient follow-up was completed at 28 days, a timepoint at which, interestingly, some of the greatest treatment effects of SNG001 on recovery were observed. Recent evidence suggests that the long-term sequelae of severe COVID-19 are significant, so it will be important to track the effects of SNG001 on the prevention and resolution of these symptoms in future trials.

From independent reviewers
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30523-3/fulltext
'It will also be worthwhile to investigate whether interferon beta-1a has an impact on prolonged symptoms of COVID-19, especially pulmonary symptoms. Recent studies have found persistent dyspnoea in up to 40% of patients with COVID-19 at 2 months after disease onset and abnormalities in pulmonary function at 3 months. In light of the growing number of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, it is now crucial to find drugs that could prevent these pulmonary sequelae.

So this new P3 will not only be looking for the intial effects of Covid in the hospital setting but will be looking at how many patients go on to develop long covid. If we get to see a repeat of the P2 results and follow up patients in subsequent months we may see a definate trend of preventing the long covid. What value do you place on a drug proven to prevent long covid!

https://www.livewritethrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/buzz-lightyear-with-whiskey.jpg

Richard deserves that drink.

Subscribers to our embargoed distribution service will receive the press release for a given article a few days ahead of publication, embargoed until the time the paper is published.

I wonder if Polar knew about the likely publication on Monday :)

https://wellcome.org/news/can-europe-invest-now-avoid-future-lockdowns-covid-19

'While recent results from vaccine trials are causes for optimism, that is only one of the tools needed. Better tests and treatments must be available to tackle outbreaks and stop further lockdowns.'

From Jeremy Farrar / Wellcome Trust

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1326566347556446208/photo/1

This is scary nearly every state now shows uncontrolled spread.

Reading that 5000 day deaths could happen as there is a 3 week lag between cases reported and deaths.

Also in some states nurses who have covid-19 are being told to carry on working regardless as they have reached 100% hospital capacity. Similar to Italy and Belgium.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1326704974772965377

U.S. reported 1,562 new coronavirus deaths, biggest one-day increase since May

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1326853563537100802

Shocking to see the numbers of people dying who have been hospitalised with Covid-19 in Michigan. Completely out of control in the USA.

I read something similar earlier today, one of the mutant strains was resistant to one of the current mabs treatments in development.

Just to add AZN news may be next week too :)

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1326636739117592584

Expect some initial results imminently, a headline figure likely in next few days.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/treatments-people-early-covid-19-infection-urgent-research-focus

Treatments for people with early COVID-19 infection is an urgent research focus says Dr Fauci. The top medical guy is saying we still need treatments several days after the vaccine news.

I do think vaccines were expected to be successful by the market but at around 60% effiacy.

However the big drop was caused by the efficacy being 90% (miles better than expected) this bodes well for 4 other vaccines that are targeting the spike protein too. So medical expectation is we will have a number of vaccines available to us in Q1/Q2.

AZN and Moderna are due to release their prelim results in the next couple of weeks too so be prepared for more big vaccine headlines.

If they introduce a digital passport/app then it will give the anti vax movement the evidence they need. I would be surprised if the government pull this move as im sure many people would protest.

It is going to be a hard sell to people. Im seeing stories of ferility issues and cancer causing from the anti vax crowd. How do you prove they are incorrect when you have no data or evidence that the vaccine is safe over medium and long term?

The government have and scientists have blundered all the way through this pandemic so have zero credibility in many peoples eyes. Why would you trust them now on a largely untested vaccine?

I think there will need to be a huge media/education campaign to persuade the public opinion.

I should have worded it better -

Currently rules say to isolate if
* you live with someone who has symptoms or tested positive.
* someone in your support bubble has symptoms or tested positive.

However people being turned away if someone at your work had symptoms for example. Thats different from the general advice of isolation.

Is that maybe just a mistake by the test givers or are the rules for the testing different here? Thats where these is confusion.

On the Liverpool testing people we know have been turned away from the test centres.

Reason - If you have been in contact with someone who has tested positive for Covid or has Covid symtoms you can't get a test.

I don't understand it surely you would want to test those people?

Avacta did a similar message via twitter and that reassured the nerves too.

0.10-0.11 was going to be expected on the news of dilution/consolidation.

This is definately one for the longer term though, Brandshield has some serious potential if its marketing is done correctly.