Member Info for JoeyDiamond

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/astra-vaccine-s-90-efficacy-in-covid-came-in-younger-population

Naughty naughty naughty

AZN FDA approval in big trouble. N=2500 and only tested in under 55's. The half/full dose was only discovered due to incompetence and a mistake in the dosing.

Pressure mounting from US medical community and FDA approval not happening.

Likely need to get approval on double dose data 62% efficacy (with 95% CI may be as low as 42% effiacy) or AZN do further trials to get more data on the half/full dose for the older age groups.

Remember these breakthrough articles reported by the Casanova lab / COVID Human Genetic Effort people?

Autoantibodies against type I IFNs in patients with life-threatening COVID-19
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6515/eabd4585

Inborn errors of type I IFN immunity in patients with life-threatening COVID-19
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6515/eabd4570

Well the science has developed further with regards to people with these inborn errors and interferon response.
https://twitter.com/ShenYingZhang1/status/1329458223972225026
https://www.jci.org/articles/view/134529#.X7aWeHEIxJE.twitter

'Human TLR3 controls cell-intrinsic basal IFNb antiviral immunity. A mechanism may underlie the susceptibility to various viral illness in people with inborn errors of the TLR3-IFN pathway: HSV-1 encephalitis, Influenza pneumonia, COVID19 pneumonia, etc.'

This is no longer just Covid19 these inborn errors can determine how bad your intial response is to all sorts of viruses. So as this science develops we may find an Inteferon Beta therapy is going to be even more useful.

Whats also interesting is a certain Professor we know gave a speech yesterday to the worldwide members of the Covid Human Genetic Effort - https://www.covidhge.com

Potentially we are seeing a broad spectrum antiviral have a targeted approach. If you can test people who have these inborn errors there is a ready made drug available that will have a dramatic impact.

TLR3 info - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TLR3

Disclaimer - Lots of science orientated reading.

Guess it safe to post on this board again? Some good things found today on the reddit board where most of us vacated too :)

This board is toxic again with many people posting made up nonsense to create uncertainty. Im off for the day and will stick with the private synairgen chat for now.

Some II's were buying too lets not forget. Polar bought 2 million additional shares after vaccine news hit.

The P3 start is the signal of the final countdown timer to Synairgens covid success or not. For anyone who believes in Synairgen you will need to think about buying in before sentiment changes again. In near future there will be an inflection point where risk/time scale means you need to be locked and loaded ready for a potential news item that causes a multibag.

There is a small chance 6-8 weeks into the trial an EUA from 1/26 countries will appear. 10-12 weeks we could even have the P3 trial complete if everything gos very well. Home trial will likely be complete in Jan.

Currently the SP is at the mercy of all the shorters or short term traders fueled by vaccine news. I think we need to be a few weeks post P3 start date to see proper recovery.

If you are a newer trader in SNG Evas strategy of adding 25% stake at certain levels appears sensible in the short term ready for hopefully a great 2021 Q1.

Without this 'luck' the results of the AZN trial would have been 62% and using the 95% CI you were looking at 41%. This would be below the FDA threshold for approval.

Amazing story really.

Such a basic mistake (even if apparently lucky) made on a large trial means it now has lost its credibility to me. What else went wrong that they didn't notice? How can we be sure the data is actually correct and not just fudged by a panicked scientist.

Some twitter talk of FDA excluding UK trial data from their decision.

https://twitter.com/matt_blackwell/status/1330935787337232385

Lol a lucky massive error or is the wool being pulled over peoples eyes, anti vax will have a field day :)

Prof Holgate is performing a talk on Interferon for a world wide academic audience today. They are members of the COVID Human Genetic Effort. https://www.covidhge.com/

Anyone got access to the site and provide a replay link?

Yes im sure the board are aware of the dates but theres nothing in the near term they can do to effect SP other than announcing P3 start. There is nothing else currently news worthy by Synairgen standards.

Realistically it wont be until January before we get any big juicy moves ie home trial news or if we lucky we get an intial P3 readout IMO

Yes Eva is right each country will use its own approval board to green light the vaccines.

Various reports say ETA for Phizer approval will be 2nd Dec in UK and 12th Dec in USA.

Sadly we are not on the Recovery trial for a 2nd time due to reasons currently unknown. This came as a surprise to many including some Professors :)

Next likely news event is going to be the approval of Phizer vaccine in the UK ETA 2nd Dec (ETA 12th Dec in USA) or a SNG001 P3 trial start date.

Richard in his presentation the other week was pretty clear Synairgen were not partnering up with regards to Covid. He said Synairgen had done all the heavy lifting so will take all of the Covid profits or non profit i suppose :)

2nd half of 2021 they would be looking at partnership deal to develop SNG001 in COPD.

Just to add looking at the figures from Zach https://twitter.com/alchemytoday/status/1330869442671206403

The double dose results could potentially not pass FDA approval, hence why we are seeing AZN now trialling the half/full dosing. I think down the line once more data revealed the AZN vaccine is not going to be anywhere near as good as Moderna/Phizer.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1330866440409235456

Read some of the comments

Interesting comment here https://twitter.com/alchemytoday/status/1330869442671206403

Makes a better explanation than me lol in why the 90% number and lack of data may not be all it seems for AZN.

There were 2.5k people in the half dose group and over 8k in the double dose so if they are comparing to the placebo group directly without factoring in difference in size/covid cases etc then the 90% number looks good. Until we see more data and how they came to the conclusion we need to be careful with that 90% number.

I would hope the scientists would have already factored in all the variables in the 90% number, however with the vaccine race on and each company trying to out do each other this number could be for headlines only.

Thats why I dont like this releasing headline data without the full datasets it makes many vaccine hesitant people worry and become distrustful. I am probably wrong and worry about nothing but during the pandemic we have been lied to repeatedly and so full disclosure is very important.

Yes the 90% figure represents the half dose people only but it is excluding the people on the double dose trial who caught Covid. The 90% efficacy number vs the placebo group would have to assume those double dose people would not go on to catch covid if they instead were on the half dose.

The 90% number is just a headline and cannot be accurate. Unless this has been factored in to the data here? Thats what no one can answer so far.

So the combined 70% range is the far more likey number even for the half dose. Without the full data disclosure we can't be sure.

Ive been asking various twitter scientists still no answer :/

Does the 90% figure incorporate the people who caught covid from the 2 full dose regimen? I think even with the half/full dose these same people were still very likely to catch covid. So 90% would likely be reduced as more data presents? Or am I getting that assumption wrong?

This is why I get annoyed with the data by media headline releases.