The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Who knows how they will play the price but at this stage any significant retraces are a gift for people to buy in.
Over 50% of stock is now in II hands and this number is slowly increasing.
I dont need to tell people the ramifications if E484K mutation variants takes hold in the UK and spreads over the coming months.
Elderly people who took the AZN vaccine will have zero protection for mild/moderate and very likely little protection vs severe disease.
10% efficacy in a trial population with an average age of 31. Will likely be zero effect for the elderly population.
Doc the data they are looking at is comparing the over 80s in the UK where at least 80% have been vaccinated (1 dose) vs younger under 80 populations in the UK without the vaccine. So the Israel vaccination uptake has no bearing on this graph.
We should be seeing some signs of falling cases rates in the over 80s vs under 80s in the UK. Sadly not yet. This is in contrast to Israels data hence the speculation as to the cause.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/helix6052#!/vizhome/SGTFDashboard/SGTFDashboard
https://twitter.com/alexbolze/status/1357831725225660416
USA virus surveillance efforts, a website tracking B117 (UK variant) spread. We can see from the tracking this variant is increasing in prevalence/spread. Using UK as an example there is a good chance it will become the main variant in USA in a few months if trend remains constant.
Good thread on the likely scenario in the USA in the near future
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1357570672860495872
Yes good point HarChris could well be the variant is having more impact than thought.
The UK started vaccine rollout 10 days before Israel, just odd no signs of vaccine effect yet.
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1358016395276136450
https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1358020864701329408
You may remember the good news from Israel and the charts showing the Phizer vaccine having an affect in reducing cases in the elderly population. They have checked the UK data and there has been no vaccine effect in the elderly population as of yet.
Questions
Possibly just a delayed effect? In a few more weeks we may seen some vaccine effect?
AZN vaccine doesnt work as well as Phizer?
AZN vaccine not effective for elderly people? There is not enough clinical trial data to prove it does work hence most non UK countries banning it for over 55s/65s
Delayed dose strategy an issue?
Defo one to keep an eye on.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773058
Here is a paper co-written by Dr Fauci back in November outlining plans for early therapy.
Quote
'Several antivirals approved or in development for other viral infections, such as HIV, hepatitis C virus, and ebolaviruses, are under investigation for early treatment of COVID-19. These investigations have not yet yielded clinically actionable results; however, many trials are ongoing. Examples of antivirals in trials for early treatment of COVID-19 are MK-4482 (EIDD-2801), an orally bioavailable ribonucleoside inhibitor that was originally developed for influenza (NCT04575597); SNG001, a nebulized formulation of interferon-ß1a developed for viral infections in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (NCT04385095); and camostat mesylate, a serine protease inhibitor approved for treatment of chronic pancreatitis and postoperative reflux esophagitis (NCT04353284).
So these are the 3 that are in his and colleagues minds.
https://www.nytimes.com/1989/08/15/science/ignored-aids-drug-shows-promise-in-small-tests.html
1989 - Dr Fauci was trialling interferon alpha for AIDs back in 1989.
Direct quote form the article
'Dr. Fauci said the growing evidence that interferon is effective against AIDS infections was so encouraging that AIDS patients who could not take AZT because of its side effects should consider taking alpha interferon instead of or in combination with AZT.
''I believe that alpha interferon is very promising,'' he said. ''Independent studies in the United States and Europe have clearly shown it is effective in Kaposi's sarcoma and that it has a significant effect'' against the AIDS virus.
So this notion that Fauci doesnt know much about interferon is a bit silly. As a Dr who was actually trialling interferon back in 1989 im sure he would have some excitement that interferon may be of use in Covid-19.
Hi Kenneth, all the best to your Dad. Here is further information on the sfx-01 trial.
https://www.lifearc.org/funding/covid-19-funding-2/sfx-01/
Trial based out of Dundee using Lifearc funding (charity) for 300 patients.
A major challenge in the treatment of COVID-19 is the development of slowly worsening lung damage, known as Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). This requires intensive care treatment with ventilation until the inflammation is resolved and the lungs can heal.
Nrf2 is a transcription factor (a naturally-occurring protein) which forms part of the body’s defences against inflammatory and oxidative stress, such as the inflammation that occurs during a severe viral infection. It is hypothesised that increasing the levels of active Nrf2 in patients with COVID-19 could improve recovery and prevent the need for ventilation.
The Professor recommends the drug and the trial so I would go with his expertise and sign up.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/article/PIIS2665-9913(21)00012-6/fulltext
Was researching for another share but this is relevent for TILs.
A study from Milan, Italy on Interleukin-1 and interleukin-6 inhibition compared with standard management in patients with COVID-19 and hyperinflammation.
Quotes
Patients with severe COVID-19 develop a life-threatening hyperinflammatory response to the virus. Interleukin (IL)-1 or IL-6 inhibitors have been used to treat this patient population, but the comparative effectiveness of these different strategies remains undetermined. We aimed to compare IL-1 and IL-6 inhibition in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, respiratory insufficiency, and hyperinflammation.
In summary, IL-1 inhibition, but not IL-6 inhibition, was associated with a significant reduction of mortality in a large cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 and hyperinflammation. IL-6 inhibition was only effective in a subgroup of patients with markedly high C-reactive protein concentrations, whereas both IL-1 inhibition and IL-6 inhibition were more effective in patients with low lactate dehydrogenase concentrations.
Do we know who the 3rd party is who made the call in request?
Possibly Mark Culbert has been reading wallstreetbets and thinks the silver squeeze is on haha
Remarkable values thats a good way of putting it :)
https://twitter.com/MartinLandray/status/1356870244665618434
No effect of azithromycin on mortality among patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19
Azithromycin is an antibiotic.
Not sure why you have complained. The post is factual.
Sweden, Poland, Belgium and Italy approve for under 55s only
Germany, France and Austria approve for under 65s only
All cite lack of data in AZN trials to be confident
a) The vaccine works in the older age groups .
b) 12 weeks between doses is giving higher efficacy.
We hope the AZN vaccines works and save lives, but we score an own goal if the data is flawed and not giving a correct result.
https://twitter.com/MartinLandray/status/1356689416870363136
52 people recruited in 1st day for new baricitimib drug trial on Recovery. SNG uk arm would be filled in like 4-5 days lol.
Not sure if thats a troll post to SNG ;)
Monoclonal antibody treatments in general are not doing well vs the variants. Regeneron and Eli lily for example the variants have either partially/completely escaped neutralisation. The big money spinner for AZN in the pandemic is the mAbs treatment it is developing. As the virus mutates the likelyhood is it will render AZN treatment ineffective too.
Investors are possibly weighing this news in the SP.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/02/monoclonal-antibodies-great-hope-in-covid-treatments-fails-against-variants
Definately not with this trial design and size.