The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Just for peoples information J+J vaccine was effectively approved today as expected by the FDA. This comes as no shock to anyone in the markets unless your names Tiger it seems.
https://www.businessinsider.com/jj-single-dose-covid-19-vaccine-full-study-results-2021-2
On Friday the FDA will just formally approve it at their public meeting. There is no shock here as its already approved lol.
Looking at my AIM/Main shares watchlist every single one is red today.
There is a market sell off in general in many sectors. In 1st hour of trading Tesla just lost 100 billion market cap.
Take a look at Tesla shares today they dropping off a cliff. Near 100 billion market cap lost so far today.
Just looking round the market, even testing shares like Avacta/ODX/NCYT are down.
There has been a herd move from Covid/Crypto stocks into travel/retail stocks.
JAllis suggest you research activ-2 trials in USA.
Yes Ghia the implications from SAGE on vaccines is not painting the same rosy picture as the media.
My biggest worry is if an E484K variant spreads when schools reopen.
Luckily only few cases so far. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data
Weirdly I mislinked before the same paper pmjh :)
This is the SAGE paper
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963400/S1116_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_on_scenario_for_easing_restrictions.pdf
Page 6 is an eye opener.
Apologies correct download link is https://t.co/WSi3Gjp4Nb?amp=1
The SAGE planning/modelling document from a couple of weeks ago is not in full agreement with the Govt plan.
Download SAGE document here - https://t.co/ZqDAHEGp8m?amp=1
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1363888315997556740
Summary from the key SAGE doc on the modelling of releasing restrictions. "all four scenarios modelled lead to a substantial resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths"
https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1363897040376373257
This is absolutely chilling. Has @BorisJohnson decided he knows better than the scientists on SAGE, or does he simply not care how many die? The NHS workforce is *finite*. How can we care for your cancer, your heart disease, if we’re still overwhelmed by Covid patients?
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1363882241978466308
NEW: SAGE modelling suggests that if Govt agrees to call by Tory MPs to lift all restrictions by the end of April it could lead to between 52,500 and 146,400 *extra* Covid deaths between now and summer 2022.
https://twitter.com/whazell/status/1363893155851087875
Sage paper says that the "consensus view is that the opening of primary and secondary schools is
likely to increase effective R by a factor of 1.1 to 1.5 (10% to 50%)
Feels like a gamble again to me. However in fairness to the PM its a tough choice when all modelled scenarios show another wave of Covid will be coming.
Media are reporting headlines of 95% reduction in hospitalisation due to AZN vaccine
yet governments own published plan today says 'In older people (aged 80 and over) who do develop COVID-19 infection, those who are vaccinated, most of whom have so far had one dose, have a much lower chance of hospitalisation (about 40% lower) and death (around 56% lower) than those who are unvaccinated.
What figure is it? That is quite the disparity in numbers.
Some Vaccine info from the document
58. Early data for the AstraZeneca vaccine suggests a good level of protection after one dose but, as deployment of this vaccine only started in January 2021, at this stage the size of the effect is less certain.
59. Third, in older people (aged 80 and over) who do develop COVID-19 infection, those who are vaccinated, most of whom have so far had one dose, have a much lower chance of hospitalisation (about 40% lower) and death (around 56% lower) than those who are unvaccinated.
Preparing for revaccination
65. It is not currently known for how long people who receive a COVID-19 vaccine will be protected. This is because, as is the case with many vaccines, the protection they confer may weaken over time. It is also possible that new variants of the virus may emerge against which current vaccines are less effective. As well as working closely with manufacturers, Government scientists are seeking to better understand the impact of some Variants of Concern on the vaccines currently in deployment.
66. To ensure the country is prepared for these scenarios and while further evidence is gathered, the Government is planning for a revaccination campaign, which is likely to run later this year in autumn or winter. Any revaccination is likely to consist of a single ‘booster’ dose of a COVID-19 vaccine: the ideal booster may be a new vaccine specifically designed against a variant form of the virus. Over the longer term, revaccination is likely to become a regular part of managing COVID-19.
***
Pretty interesting AZN vaccine in over 80's gives a 40% reduction in hospitalisation and 56% reduction in death according to this document. Those numbers are not as high as MSM were reporting over last week.
Planning regular booster shots of vaccine too suggests Covid-19 is endemic.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/22/england-covid-roadmap-lockdown-experts-view
Some early views from experts
Looks like govt are finally trying to address the problem with only 3 in 10 people isolating on a positive test. More money to be provided to people needing to isolate. Not sure if 20 million / month will be enough?
162 The Government will also expand support for those self-isolating. While self-isolation is critically important to halting the spread of the disease, it is never easy for those affected. The Test and Trace Support Payment Scheme will continue into the summer, and will be expanded to cover parents who are unable to work because they are caring for a child who is self-isolating, and the funding made available for local authorities as part of this to make discretionary support payments will be increased to £20 million per month
Doc I suggest you read the full plan instead of just using the Sun newspaper and BBC news headlines. You may think the plan is genius but many do not. The scientists and even many MPs are questioning many aspects of the plan and are pointing out many issues.
Anyway no point arguing on this further we have differing opinions.
I have published a new thread with a link to the full plan document for discussion on the good or bad points.
Some sections relating to theraputics in the longer term.
195. Vaccines will be key to managing the transition from pandemic to endemic state. Therapeutics and antivirals will also be increasingly important and replace most non-pharmaceutical interventions over the long term.
200. On the international stage, the UK is leading on a global approach to preventing future pandemics. At the UN General Assembly in September 2020, the Prime Minister set out the UK’s Five Point Plan focusing on
b. Increased research and development and manufacturing capacity for treatments and vaccines to ensure tried and tested treatments are ready to deploy against emerging threats;
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-spring-2021
Here is the full government plan for anyone wanting a read. Section 6 Long Term makes for interesting reading.
I suggest you read the scientists views Doc as to the problems with the plan instead of always being a Boris and Tory lover.
Give it 3 days and some eloquent scientist will point out the obvious failings and sentiment changes...
Its taken 3 minutes the plan is being ripped apart already by scientists and Doctors on twitter.
Yes take a look at SAGEs modelling predictions. That what the UK government are basing their decisions on.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1363880176204021767/photo/1
Just to add all predicted scenarios say there is another wave coming just differing in the timeline and severity.