The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Hi Richlist you are correct with the Oxford figures they are for the general population and is a guide to relative odds of Covid outcomes for your age group etc
Yes with a positive PCR test and Covid diagnosis then the odds shorten even further for hospitalisation. I was trying to show the difference the co-morbidities make so apologies I didn't explain it too well and left that important bit out :)
Looking at the trial design https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04385095 and the inclusion criteria then it is possible we could have many people over 65 who are in general good health on the trial. From the relative odds if this is the case then we would expect less events and signal than if we have a higher proportion of people signed up with a co-morbidity like obesity, heart disease or COPD for example.
From Eli Lilly trial a sub group analysis of obese patients showed 15% in placebo group went to hospital as opposed to the 7% in overall total placebo group.
My take on the interview -
The interviewer obviously knows the theory and excitement with interferon, basically the early you give interferon the better. He made a comment saying we may expect better results in the HT, Richard reigned him back in and advised caution.
In the hospital trial patients were already ill so getting a result/signal was going to be easier to see. Events in the trial were N=98.
In the home trial people are at this stage only mildly ill and statistically many in the trial will get better on their own accord and will not need hospitalisation. People who have followed SNG will know about the asthma trial which failed its primary end point due to lack of exacerbations in placebo and drug arm. From past experience he was saying it is possible again we will just not have the events in the trial to give a signal one way or the other.
So simply numbers in the trial may be too low and not enough people in the placebo arm actually go to hospital. We need to see the makeup of the patients in the trial and if any have a co-morbidity.
I have used the UK Covid calculator here to work out example odds of patients going to hospital - https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation
White 70 year old healthy man - 1 in 548
White 82 year old man (COPD/In a nursing home) - 1 in 97
Black African 75 year old woman (Obese/type 2 diiabetes/Heart Disease) - 1 in 80
Black African 78 year old man (Sickle cell disease/stroke) - 1 in 14
So to see a signal you will likely need much larger numbers in the trial ie need activ-2 people included too. Like previous trials there may not be enough events.
For reference Eli Lilly Mabs EUA needed 1035 patients. Primary endpoint was the proportion of participants who had a COVID-19-related hospitalization. Endpoint events occurred in 11 of 518 participants (2%) in the bamlanivimab plus etesevimab arm and in 36 of 517 participants (7%) in the placebo arm.
On this basis if we get around 4 or 5 events in the home trial we will have done well. So Richard was just being honest in the interview relaying what many of us already knew. The HT on its own is unlikely to give a blockbuster as its just not powered to do so unless we get very lucky with placebo events.
From previous RNS
'During the course of audit work in Brazil, the UK executive management of the Company became aware on 16 March 2021 that certain cash withdrawals amounting to approximately US$80,000 during the first quarter of 2020 lacked documentary support and this has required further local audit work which is ongoing and is having an impact on timing of the publication of the Accounts.'
Someone had their hand in the till by sound of it :)
Alternatively people could have just read previous company RNS's and have known all this anyway.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40263-021-00804-1
LSE descended into chaos, for anyone interested in a scientific study -
A big data dive of medical records in USA of patients with MS or SLE produced some interesting results. MS patients being treated with Interferon Beta were less likely to develop Covid. Heres the interesting line -
'COVID-19 was less likely to develop in Patients with MS who were prescribed IFNs (0.61% [40/6509] vs 1.27% [304/23,969]; p < 0.0001)'
A sizeable study that gives a good indication of the indirect benefits of early use interferon Beta for Covid when used by MS sufferers for their condition. The Interferon is notably injected and not inhaled for MS sufferers so the results will be less of an impact than a targeted method of delivery to the lungs.
Sparkle, many of us including pmjh use the reddit board now. Only occasionally do we frequent here now.
You can message an admin on the board and they can add you to the chat.
https://www.reddit.com/r/synairgen/
Thanks Brand, Casanova and co released severa papers last year with regards to the inborn errors and autoantibodies.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abd4585
Its nice to see his theory of using IFN-B was successful and validated in treating this young woman. I really liked this line
'This patient is the only known individual with neutralizing auto-Abs against type I IFNs not to have developed life-threatening pneumonia on infection with SARS-CoV-2'
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6515/eabd4570
Inborn errors of type I IFN immunity in patients with life-threatening COVID-19, thats the original paper.
Tikvah are back in with just over 7 million shares, Pershing 4m, Walker Crips 3m and a host of other new holders have appeared. As reported from 02 March.
Whats odd is Polar are missing yet no TR1's. We discussed this last week on Reddit but we are puzzled on what it all means. Possibly they sold out to other funds directly hence not noticed in daily volume. Or they still in and for some reason not appearing on Bloomberg.
678 members on reddit now, link is https://www.reddit.com/r/synairgen/
https://twitter.com/SimonLoriereLab/status/1372855705456218121
New lab study out showing Covid variants of concern B.1.351 (SA) and P.1 (Br) are able to infect mice where as old wild type virus could not. The mutations in the virus have enabled the ability to infect the rodent ACE2 receptor.
The door is open for Covid to jump across species into a new host.
Possibly we may have an animal resevoir closely linked to humans that will spread the dangerous variants. Lots more study and investigation required to confirm the many questions that arise.
More commentry here too https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1373259122041294856
How do you get 125% off wouldnt that mean they would pay me? :)
Yes like most kitchen places they have high starting prices that some people will just pay. Or common in the trade is the kitchen company/fitter orders the kitchen for you from Howdens and pockets the discount.
We got our kitchen from Howdens, we negotiated 70% off the intial quote price.
We had a good independent fitter who told us its the norm in the kitchen fitting business for suppliers/fitters to try and rip off customers. Many people have no idea of costs so just pay it.
Very similar story to bathrooms, seen some charging upwards of £15k for a bathroom despite the mats costing 20% of that.
Possibly multiple TR1s coming.
4 big II's look to have sold out and their shares aquired by 5 new large II holders.
Hi Ghia the II holding is now 57% by my count from various resources.
This number excludes any holdings from Hargreaves Lansdowne / Barclays / Halifax / HSBC / Interactive Investors as I suspect most will be from PI's. Thats not to say some PI's will have large holdings too :)
https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2020-004743-83/PT
Will be
50 patients in Portugal across 5 sites.
234 in total across EU.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00522-1
'The first 12 months of COVID-19: a timeline of immunological insights'
This is a new Nature article reviewing and celebrating the first 12 months of the most important science/discoveries/events during the pandemic.
Interferon and related discoveries gets its own section which is cool. For people who follow scientists and read various presentations etc this interferon related slide is becoming very popular and common amongst academic circles - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00522-1/figures/2
In the paper there is also this
'By contrast, a robust early interferon response is likely essential in controlling COVID-19. For example, a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted in the UK evaluated inhaled IFNß1a (once daily for up to 14 days) in non-ventilated patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Compared with the patients receiving placebo (n?=?50), the patients receiving inhaled IFNß1a (n?=?51) had greater odds of improvement and recovered more rapidly from SARS-CoV-2 infection' 135'
So interferon pathway related science is being championed alongside the success of the vaccines in this article. Heck SNG even get a mention. Illustrious company :)
https://twitter.com/lemondefr/status/1371484741862629384
Yes France have suspended too.
I don't care much for Brexit ApricotDanish but the AZN vaccine story for whatever reason is important as the EU vaccine rollout is stuttering to a trickle.
From SNG investor view it means some countries will need alternative plan Bs ie anti-virals. France made a big interferon announcement recently.
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1371472426761129986
Germany have now suspended AZN vaccine ;/