Latest India Variant Modelling - 2 waves to come (high mortality)14 Jun 2021 23:57
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993361/S1290_LSHTM_Roadmap_Step_4.pdf
Latest on roadmap data and modelling of the India variant.
? Implementing roadmap Step 4 as planned is likely to exacerbate this and lead to a third wave of infection, peaking in August or early September 2021. Under most scenarios, this summer wave would be smaller than the January 2021 wave, in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, but comparable to the April or October 2020 waves. Under more pessimistic scenarios of high immune escape and high transmissibility of Delta B.1.617.2 (70% more than Alpha B.1.1.7), it is possible that the summer wave could exceed the January 2021 peak in terms of hospitalisation and deaths. The size of the peak depends strongly upon the levels of mobility (and hence social mixing) reached following Step 4, and accordingly changes to Step 4 policies may have a large effect on the dynamics of the summer wave.
? The model projects that more than half of the hospitalisations and deaths occurring in the summer 2021 wave will be in unvaccinated individuals, with admissions being split relatively evenly between the 45-64, 65-74 and 75+ year age groups. Deaths are likely to be concentrated in the 75+ age group.
? Delaying Step 4 of the roadmap is likely to have an impact in the short term, reducing the impact of the summer wave. A two week delay has a modest impact, reducing deaths as measured until the end of October 2021 from 49,700 (35,600-67,200) to 48,500(34,400-66,900) for the medium / central immune escape scenario and 50% increase in transmissibility for the Delta B.1.617.2 variant. Delaying Step 4 for 5 weeks, so that it coincides with the school vacation period is expected to have a larger effect in the short term helping to flatten the summer wave and reducing the number of deaths from 49,700 (35,600-67,200) to 43,500 (31,200-62,900) and peak deaths from 700 (500-1,200) per day to 500 (300-800) for the medium / central immune escape scenario and 50% increase in transmissibility for the Delta B.1.617.2 variant
? Taking further measures to reduce the summer wave, such as delaying Step 4 until all adults have had both vaccine doses, instigating a circuit-breaker lockdown or moving back to Step 2 measures is likely to largely negate the impact of the summer wave, unless pessimistic assumptions regarding immune escape and transmissibility are adopted (Tables 6 and 7 and Figures 9-12). Note, however, that the more stringent the short term measures are, then the larger the bounce-back in cases later in the year (Figures 9-12), when schools will be open and other seasonal factors are less favourable. Indeed, for these reasons even the 2 or 5 week delay to Step 4 can result in modest increases in morbidity and mortality when measured until the end of the year (Tables S3 and S4) as more cases are pushed back into the autumn.
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