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"Charles, why are you yet again resurrecting Thomas's FAILED arguments re VAT and the prices quoted on SMM ?"
Clearly the reason is to draw a reaction from genuine investors a detract from the positive sentiment that is currently building here. He has worked the same trick before and based on past performance I expect he'll continue to drone on about hypothetical scenarios to fit his agenda. It's different approach to DP and Theo, more subtle but ultimately they're aims are the same. Probably best not to engage as he really can go the distance and will waste a lot of everyone's energy as we discovered a few months ago.
Hate to burst any bubbles here but cut and pasting science blurb doesn’t make you a chemical engineer. Pensana have arguably the best and definitely the most experienced rare earth specialist metallurgist outside of China who is handpicking a team to perfect the complex processes required to get from ore to oxide. Don’t expect this work to be published for obvious reasons.
Can’t see any sense in an outright takeover at this stage, the bidder would have to pay way over the odds to persuade major shareholders and then take on all the risk of funding and construction. Give it a couple of years and it may then be a realistic option that would suit both sides, until then I don’t see any logic in it.
Five shares you can buy to hitch a ride on the EV boom
As Cop26 nears, Katie Tarrant roots out five innovative ways for retail investors to play the coming boom in demand for electric vehicles
Sunday October 24 2021, 12.01am, The Sunday Times
Pensana
Pensana wants to build a £100 million plant on the Humber
Mining company Pensana is hoping to position itself as a key supplier of rare earth metals, producing the metal oxides needed for magnets to go into electric cars.
A £15 million equity raise in June kickstarted construction on a £100 million plant that Pensana wants to build on the Humber. It says this will be the first big rare earth separation facility to be built in over a decade and the first located in a freeport.
Worth £244 million, the London-listed company, founded in 2006, aims to produce about 12,500 tonnes a year of rare earth oxides at the plant. It says this would represent 5 per cent of the world market in 2025. Chairman Paul Atherley has described minerals and metals as the “enablers of the global energy transition” as carbon prices increase. Pensana is hoping to raise additional funding for the Humber plant through bonds and a slice of the government’s Automotive Transformation Fund.
https://stockboxmedia.com/interviews/altona-rare-earths-ceo-joins-us-for-an-announcement/
I thought this was a great update on recent progress and a chance for Christian to pay out his vision for the next 3 or 4 years. Seems glaringly obvious that at current mcap Altona is punching way above it's weight. Next six months look set to be very exciting for shareholders, even more so if you're lucky enough to have warrants.
Good that the two licences cover both iconic clay and carbonatite resources, but what's really crucial is the ability to mine both heavy and light rare earths. On the light side neodymium and praseodymium are experiencing strong demand and subsequent price increases, but the heavy dysprosium is also predicted to be in supply deficit during this decade. There are plenty of much larger rare earth companies who cannot currently offer the full range of elements required for permanent magnet production so Altona are already positioning themselves to have a competitive advantage. Second mover advantage could also play a part as Altona can learn from some of the mistakes that other western rare earth companies who are further ahead in development will inevitably make, and also replicate processes that are successful. With China something like 20 years ahead of the West in the supply -chain there will be plenty of support and interest from European and American governments who can't fulfil environmental promises without critical raw materials.
http://tiny.cc/6li1tz Pensana telegram group
They may well try but the bulk of shares are held by just a few individuals, ASWF and the BoD. For an offer to succeed it would have to be ‘too good to refuse’, in other words far higher than current SP. I’d rather see the company grow independently, possibly with a major taking a significant stake linked to an off take agreement. Having said that a takeover windfall wouldn’t be a disaster for long term holders.
Investment Bank Liberum sees significant upside in London-listed Pensana as one of only three UK companies to meet the climate leaders gold standard. https://m.miningweekly.com/article/investment-bank-recognises-pensana-as-climate-leader-2021-10-11/rep_id:3861
As happens so often this thread has strayed far from the original question without a satisfactory answer to the original question ever being found. Theorist, you seem to have an answer for everything, please enlighten us.
"Does anyone know of this outfit's capabilities and track record in rare earths? Will they offer their services to Pensana at some point in the future? Do they work with them today?"
I've never heard them mentioned by Pensana in any RNS or company presentation. I notice that they're based in Mersyside which was one of the shortlisted locations for the separation facility that was awarded to Saltend, Humberside. Hopefully there's no hard feelings about that decision as it was really no contest in the end with everything that the Saltend site has to offer.
https://archive.ph/Gpeuk
"Far more vulnerable are the world's batteries, electronics and power systems which require "rare earth" metals. America ignored security warnings when it allowed its own mining companies to close or be acquired (one ended up with Deng Xiaoping's family) from the 1980s onwards. And now almost all rare earths are mined in, or for, China; the Middle Kingdom is where most of the refining takes place. Amazingly, the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter can't get off the ground without these minerals. Japan, after being threatened with a rare earth embargo by China a decade ago, embarked on a strategy of supply chain independence, and its reliance on China has fallen to 60pc, illustrating how long fixing this will take."
Freeports: What are they and where will they be?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55819489
I've got nothing against Rainbow and was a holder up until recently. Obviously another big difference that's reflected in the valuation is how far advanced the Pensana separation plant is in comparison - groundwork commenced, FEED (Front End Engineering Design) almost complete and bonds ready to go. Not to mention the fact that it's located in a Freeport so material can be imported and exported without tarrifs, right on the doorstep of Europe's wind energy and EV manufacturers.
CaneToad
The valuation will eventually have to reflect Saltend, Europe's first rare earth separation facility in a decade, designed to provide 5% global NdPr oxide demand, with space allocated to expand further downstream to produce magnet metals. Comparing Pensana to pure mining companies only tells part of the story.
The company's focus is to be Europe's equivalent to Lynas and MP, both currently valued in $bn's. That's what got this to £2 in March only to come crashing down as reality dawned that there were still a few hurdles to jump. The fall has been made worse by a mishandled delisting from ASX and a short attack from New York.
During this fall though the company has in fact made very good progress. Planning has been secured, groundwork commenced, long lead items ordered and the Bond issuer selected. Behind the scenes the board has been strengthened, FEED progressed, ATF progressed and offtake partners shortlisted.
At some stage this will bottom out and a valuation based upon fundamentals vs risk of failure/success becomes the measure. After weighing those up it then comes down to each investor to decide for themselves. One thing is for sure though - a simple mining company valuation model will never accurately reflect what this project is worth.
astro999, completely agree that there have been some mistakes made in the communication from Pensana. I also think that they have been incredibly busy but don't feel the need to RNS every detail. Looking forward they seem to have changed comms strategy with a series of webinars, the first of which was a couple weeks ago - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aWTFhtFeCI